Baseball Picks: Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals

Written June 13, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz

reds-royals-preview-061309 The Reds are coming off a game in which their bats were shut down. At 31-29, Cincinnati has had a solid year with young stars blossoming onto the scene. Jay Bruce has displayed his power with 15 home runs and 32 RBIs this season. Joey Votto, who is currently out with an injury, is hitting .357 with eight homers and 33 RBIs and Brandon Phillips who has unlimited talent, is having a nice bounce back year with 10 home runs and 43 RBIs while hitting a respectable .274 from the plate. Jerry Hairston Jr and Ramon Hernandez are nice role players as well. The pitching overall has been decent. Tonight Bronson Arroyo takes the mound. He is 7-4 with an ERA of 5.00. He has gone seven innings or more in five of his last six starts. On the road this year Arroyo has been very solid going 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA. During his night starts this season, Arroyo is 6-2 with a 4.35 ERA. There are many different points in this game that lean you in the Reds direction. The key for the offense will be patience. So often you see this young team get eager at the plate and swing at balls out of the strike zone. Look for Bruce to have success tonight as the Reds will certainly have their chances. Saturday’s MLB lines have been posted and they show the Royals -120 against the Reds with an over/under set at 8.5 runs.

The Royals are eight games under .500 with a 26-34 record. Last night they got a stud like pitching performance from young Luke Hochevar who threw a complete game one run performance. The way Kansas City has been hitting, they needed every bit of that last night. On the season they have one player hitting over .300, that is second baseman Alberto Callaspo at .308. Jose Guillen has been decent with seven home runs and 27 RBIs while Mike Jacobs has done what was expected popping 10 homers while hitting a poor .235 from the plate. Billy Butler and Mark Teahan have bee disappointments and they were expected to have been more productive from a power stand point. So while the hitting remains well below par, the pitching is what will be counted on to carry them. So tonight Kyle Davies gets the nod to do so. Perhaps that is not the man you’d feel most confident in though. His 2-6 record along with the 5.13 ERA, is not comforting. To add fuel to the fire, Davies is 2-3 at home with a 7.29 ERA. So he clearly feels more confident on the road. In order for the Royals to win this game they will need to score 5+ runs. I simply don’t see that happening.

Haimo’s Hot Notes: The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 Saturday games. Cinci is also 4-10 in their last 14 road games. The Royals are 2-6 in their last eight games as a favorite. Kansas City is also 8-23 in their last 31 games overall. The better pitcher is on the road teams side today. The two bets hitters in the game play for the Reds. The line here makes this a tasty game and easily good looking enough to put my six game BEST BET win streak on the line.

Jordan’s Picks: Cincinnati Reds +105 (BEST BET)

Wow, I have been at this profession for a long time and last night was the most irritating mixed with comical loss I have suffered in recent memory. We happen to have split on the day and the OVER 10.5 runs covered easily, but our +200 underdog special was a simple pop up away from ringing that cash register. Well, no point about crying over spilled milk. We have our BEST BET winning streak on the line tonight with the Reds. Let’s make it happen.

Documented MLB Record:

71-48 OVERALL

29-14 BEST BET

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