Redskins Panthers Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The Washington Redskins visit the Carolina Panthers Sunday in a battle between two NFC teams in need of a win. This is a rare meeting between these teams, as they have only squared off nine times in their history. Washington holds a decisive edge, winning seven of those nine meetings. But Carolina has won two of the last three, including a 20-17 home victory in 2009. Both teams have undergone quite a makeover since.

Looking at the NFL odds, I find a spread of Carolina -2.5 over Washington and a total set of 43.5 points.

Carolina

The Panthers even have to be surprised with how well No. 1 pick Cam Newton has performed this season. They only wish it would show up more in the win column. Carolina (1-5, 1-2 home) has been in every game that they’ve played this season with a chance to win in the fourth quarter. Four of their losses have come by seven points or less, and even in their 17-31 loss to Atlanta last week, they held a three-point lead in the fourth quarter.

Newton threw two of his three interceptions against the Falcons in the final period, giving him nine picks for the season. The rookie has been impressive aside from giving the ball away. Newton’s 1,847 passing yards rank fourth in the league, and he has become the first quarterback in NFL history to have at least six passing and six rushing touchdowns through his first six games.

Carolina ranks fifth in the league in total offense (418.1 yards/game). Their ground game has been coming along as they had 142 rushing yards last week against the Falcons. Since Week 3, they rank fifth in the NFL in rushing (145.0 yards/game). They have had their share of problems stopping the run though, ranking 31st in the league in run defense (140.3 yards/game). Steve Smith is having a breakout season at receiver, catching 32 balls for 675 yards and three touchdowns.

Washington

Rex Grossman has accounted for all 11 of the Redskins’ turnovers this season, and head coach Mike Shanahan said enough is enough. John Beck will take over for him at starting quarterback this week after Grossman threw four picks in a 20-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. Washington (3-2, 1-1 away) is making the switch despite being just a half-game out of first place in the NFC East.

This will be Beck’s first start in four years. He went 8 of 15 for 117 yards with a rushing touchdown after taking over for Grossman last week. The 30-yard-old quarterback is 0-4 in his career as a starter, but he was playing for a one-win Dolphins team in 2007. He’ll be taking over a Washington offense that ranks 17th in the NFL in yardage (342.2 yards/game). What has saved the Redskins has been a stop unit that ranks 6th in the league in total defense (321.6 yards/game).

Washington has been hurt by injuries to their offensive line. They lost left guard Kory Lichtensteiger for the season with a knee injury, and they are likely to be without left tackle Trent Williams for two weeks after he suffered a sprained right ankle last week. They were held to a season-low 42 rushing yards against the Eagles. Ryan Torain had rushed for 135 yards the previous week against St. Louis, but he was limited to 22 yards on 10 carries versus Philly.

Betting Trends

The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss. However, Washington is just 7-20-3 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Panthers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. But Carolina has gone just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.

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