2011 Rice Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The Rice football program has fallen on hard times over the past two years since putting together a shocking 10-3 season in 2008. They went 2-10 in ‘09 and finished 4-8 last season. This team did pick up some nice wins last year, including a 34-31 victory over Houston and a 62-38 triumph against East Carolina.

With 17 returning starters and 53 letterman coming back for the 2011 season, the Owls have a chance to challenge for a bowl game, while also pulling off a few upsets along the way. I’m going to preview both sides of the ball below to give you an idea of the personnel they’ll be fielding this season. I’ll also give my prediction on where Rice is likely to finish in the final Conference USA standings out of the West division.

Offense:

The offense made big strides last year after a woeful ‘09 campaign. They increased their points per game from 18.3 to 28.7, and their total yards from 305 to 375. The improvements came despite losing starting quarterback Taylor McHargue to injury in Week 2 against North Texas. Nick Fanuzzi took over and went on to throw for 1,681 yards and 11 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. Fanuzzi was eventually benched after throwing 3 INT’s in the first half against Tulane in Week 10, and backup Taylor Cook nearly led them back after putting together four touchdown drives in the second half of a 49-54 loss to the Green Wave. McHargue would take over the next week against East Carolina and led the team to back-to-back wins to close out the season.

Head coach David Bailiff likes the sophomore’s mobility and the team had the most success with him under center last season, so McHargue is likely going to get the first crack at QB again in 2011. Fanuzzi and Cook are both back incase he falters. The offense returns nine starters in all and should take another step forward in 2011. Cook is expected to move to WR this season, and he’ll be joined by returning starters Vance McDonald and Luke Willson. The junior McDonald finished second on the team in receiving with 28 catches for 396 yards and 8 touchdowns. Senior TE Willson led with 33 grabs for 425 yards and 3 scores. Senior Randy Kitchens (10, 158, 2) figures to take over at the other vacant WR spot.

The Owls welcome back former Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie for his junior season. McGuffie led the team with 883 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, good for second-team All-CUSA honors. He’ll be looking to fend off sophomore Jeremy Eddington, who finished with 365 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Eddington led all backs in rushing in each of the final three games of 2010. Charles Ross, Tyler Smith and Turner Petersen each saw carries last season, and all three return. The Owls have a deep and talented group of backs heading into 2011.

Baliff figures to have the best offensive line he’s had since taking over at Rice five years ago. That’s because he returns eight of his top 10 linemen. The only significant loss is LT Scott Mitchell, who was a 3-year starter. The line paved the way for 159 rushing yards/game on 3.9/carry while allowing 27 sacks last season. This unit has 109 career starts coming back, which ranks #9 in the FBS. With four senior starters up front, this is one of the most experienced groups in CUSA.

Defense:

There is certainly plenty of room for improvement on defense from a 2010 season that saw the Owls yield 38.5 points and 449 total yards/game. The eight returning starters Rice has coming back should help produce better results. This team will see their top four tacklers from last season all suit up on Saturday’s once again. Their run defense wasn’t bad, giving up 145 yards and 4.1/carry last season. The defensive line must continue to improve against the run while also trying to add to their lowly sack total (14) from last year. It will be tough considering they have to replace DE Chete Ozougwu (seventh-round pick of Houston Texans), and DE Kramer Lucio (12 starts, 4 sacks). The return of senior DE Scott Solomon will help fill the void after he missed all of last season due to injury and took a medical redshirt. Senior NT John Geioffre and senior DT Micahel Smith each return to their starting roles and look to plug up the middle.

The linebacking corps was plagued by injures last season as they lost Willie Garley for the season against Houston, and starter Trey Briggs for the year against Tulsa. This unit suffered as a result, and must find a way to stay healthy to get better production in 2011. They return their #4, #6, #9 and #10 tacklers at linebacker, so the Owls should be in good hands here. Junior SLB Briggs returns healthy, while senior Xavier Webb (37 tackles last year) appears ready to take over a starting role. Rice gets a huge boost from LSU junior transfer Kyle Prater, their projected starter at MLB who was a terror on the scout team last year.

The clear weakness of this team last year was their secondary, where the Owls surrendered a ridiculous 304 passing yards/game on 61.6% completions. It’s not good when you #1, #2 and #3 tacklers all come from the secondary, but that was the case for this team last season. Junior S Corey Frazier led with 83 tackles, 6 pass break-ups and 1 INT. Senior FS Travis Bradshaw (76, 2, 2) earned second-team All-CUSA honors, and junior CB Phillip Gaines (64, 6, 0) was the best at his position. Rice returns their top 8 on the depth chart in the secondary, and they also welcome back Jerrett Ben, who made four starts in 2009 before taking a medical redshirt last season. I predict this to be the most improved unit in 2011.

Conference USA Prediction: 4th Place West Division – Rice has the most talent they’ve had since going 10-3 in 2008. The problem is that they are stuck in the West with the likes of Houston, Tulsa and SMU, who are all powers in this conference. The Owls are going to be better statistically this season, especially with a healthy McHargue at quarterback. That being said, I just don’t see them improving much in the win column. They could challenge for a bowl, but they have three very tough road tests within the conference at Houston, SMU and Southern Miss. Three winnable home games are on the horizon with Tulane, Memphis and UTEP, but the non-conference schedule is absolutely brutal. They play road games against Texas, Baylor and Northwestern, while also having to face Purdue at home. Another 4-8 season is the most likely scenario.

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