2012 Rose Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The 2012 Rose Bowl will feature the No. 6 Oregon Ducks against the No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers. The Ducks held on for a 49-31 win over UCLA in the PAC-12 Championship Game, while the Badgers got revenge against Michigan State with a 42-39 win i the Big Ten Championship Game. Kickoff between Oregon and Wisconsin is scheduled for Monday, January 2 at 5;00 ET and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Taking a look at the college football bowl spreads, oddsmakers currently have Oregon favored by 6.5-points over Wisconsin with the total set at 72 points.

Wisconsin:

The Badgers came into the 2011 season with the expectation of going undefeated and playing for a national championship. Those dreams were crushed after the Badgers suffered back-to-back heartbreaking losses at Michigan State and at Ohio State. Wisconsin’s loss to the Spartans 31-37 on a last second Hail Mary to put an end to their run at a perfect record. The following week Ohio State scored on a 40-yard touchdown pass with 20-seconds left to win 33-29. Wisconsin rallied to win their final four conference games before pulling off a thrilling win over Michigan State. Wisconsin will have a little extra motivation to win this game, as they got upset by TCU in last year’s Rose Bowl.

The Badgers feature a high-powered offensive attack that averages 44.6 ppg. While senior quarterback Russell Wilson has the ability to beat teams with his arm, the offense is led by the nation’s 10th best rushing attack that averages 237.4 ypg.

It’s no secret who the Badgers offense runs around. junior running back Montee Ball rushed for 1,759 yards and scored a ridiculous 32 rushing touchdowns. Ball can also beat teams by catching the ball out of the backfield, as he hauled in 20 passes for 255 yards and six more touchdowns. Ball isn’t the only weapon the Badgers will throw at opposing defenses in the run game, sophomore James White has 683 yards and six scores, and Wilson has added another 320 yards and five touchdowns from the quarterback position.

Opposing teams have to pay so much attention to stopping the run, that it has made things extremely easy for Wilson throwing the football. Wilson completed 72.5% of his attempts for 2,879 yards with 31 touchdowns to just three interceptions.

Wisconsin figures to have a great shot at putting up a big number against the Ducks, which is what they have to do to win this game. Oregon is 44th against the run (137.5 ypg) and 81st against the pass (243.5 ypg).

Oregon:

The Ducks opened up the season with a 27-40 loss to LSU. At the time it seemed like a bad loss, but LSU would end up finishing the season undefeated. Oregon would go on to win their next 9 games, before falling at home to USC 35-38 just one week after stunning then No. 4 Stanford 53-30 . Oregon got a bit of a gift in the PAC-12 Championship Game, as they would have had to face USC if it wasn’t for the Trojans being banned from postseason play. It wasn’t the season Oregon was hoping for after going undefeated and losing to Auburn in the BCS National Championship Game last year, but still plenty of reason to be excited about playing a very good team in Wisconsin.

As good as the Badgers were offensively, Oregon was just as impressive. The Ducks finished 3rd in the country with an average of 46.2 ppg behind the nation’s 5th best rushing attack that piled on 295.7 ypg. Like Wisconsin, the Ducks can also beat you with their passing game. Junior quarterback Darron Thomas ended up throwing for 2,493 yards with 30 touchdowns to just six interceptions.

However, Thomas spent most of his time handing off to running backs LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. James finished the year with 1,646 yards and 17 touchdowns, despite missing two games with an injury. Barner added another 909 yards and 11 scores.

Those two aren’t the only weapons at the Ducks disposal. Freshman running back De’Anthony Thomas is third on the team with 440 rushing yards and five scores, while leading the team with 42 catches for 571 yards and nine touchdowns.

The Badgers come in allowing the 8th fewest yards on defense in the country at 293 ypg, but I don’t see any way they keep the Ducks in check. Their biggest weakness is stopping the run, as they allowed 138 ypg on the ground. I look for Oregon’s fast-paced attack to really slow down the Badgers defense, which should allow them to move the ball with ease in the second half.

Betting Trends:

Wisconsin is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Oregon is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.

Predicted Score: Oregon 39, Wisconsin 33

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this college football bowl season.

Comments

2 Responses to “2012 Rose Bowl Odds”

SPR on December 24th, 2011 11:38 AM

Good article except that in the opening paragraph, you mentioned the “Buckeyes” (instead of the “Badgers”) got revenge against Michigan State.
Jack Jones on December 24th, 2011 11:40 AM

Good catch. I’ll get this fixed.

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