Home

Buy Sports Picks

Free Sports Picks

Sports Betting Forum

Members Login

Article Archives

Contact Us

Leaderboard

Who's Hot

Recent Results

Saints Packers Line

The 2011 NFL season will officially begin Thursday night, as the Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints in a matchup of the previous two Super Bowl Champions. The game is scheduled for 8:30 ET and will be televised nationally on NBC.

Current odds have the Packers favored by 4-points over the Saints with the total set at 47.

The Packers caught fire at just the right time last season. After losing to the Patriots in week 15, Green Bay had to win their final two games just to make the playoffs as a wild card team. They wouldn’t lose again, rolling off three straight road wins over Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago before finally beating the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.

The Packers will attempt to do what the Saints couldn’t do last year, defend their Super Bowl crown. New Orleans earned the other wild card spot with an 11-5 regular season, but were stunned in the first round of the playoffs by the Seattle Seahawks.

Both teams will have a much different look to them than what we saw to end the 2010 season. The Packers will have a number of key players back from injury, including tight end Jermichael Finley, running back Ryan Grant, and safety Morgan Burnett.  While the Saints are excited about their improved running game. After drafting Mark Ingram to become the new feature back, they let go of Reggie Bush and picked up free agent Darren Sproles.

Green Bay moves the ball on offense behind quarterback Aaron Rodgers and strong passing attack that averaged 257.8 yards (5th) a game. Getting Finley back is only going to make things even easier on the offense. While the Packers use the passing game to set up the run, they are hoping to get a lot more out of the ground attack in 2011. If Grant can return to form they should feature a solid 1-2 punch with James Starks.

The offense tends to overshadow an emerging force on the defensive side of the ball. Green Bay finished 5th in total yards allowed at 309.1, 2nd points allowed at 15.0, 2nd in interceptions at 24, and 2nd in sacks with 47. This unit will be put to the test by the Saints outstanding passing attack. New Orleans finished 3rd in the NFL with 277.6 passing yards a game and allowed just 26 sacks all year (5th fewest). Quarterback Drew Brees is one of the games elite quarterbacks, but is coming off a disappointing season where he had a career-high 22 interceptions.

New Orleans is also underrated defensively. They allowed just 306.2 (4th fewest), including just 193.9 passing yards a game (4th fewest). However, they didn’t have near the success that the Packers did in forcing interceptions and putting pressure on the quarterback. New Orleans had just nine interceptions and 33 sacks.

Both of these teams are set up to move the ball with the pass on offense and stop the pass on defense.  While both teams aren’t going to abandon the passing game, I believe the team that has the better running game will be the one that comes out on top. It is worth noting that Saints defensive tackle Aubrayo Franklin is listed as questionable with a knee injury.

Betting Trends:

Green Bay is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in September and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, but are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.

New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1, but are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.