2011-12 San Antonio Spurs Predictions
Written by Jack Jones
The San Antonio Spurs are made up of a core group of players that continues to get older, but they also continue to get the job done year after year. San Antonio had a tremendous regular season in 2010-11, finishing with the best record in the Western Conference at 61-21 and the No. 1 seed.
How far did that No. 1 seed take them? How about a first-round upset at the hands of the No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies. It has become a disturbing trend for the Spurs in recent years to play well in the regular season, then to choke in the playoffs.
Management has been afraid to get rid of their core and start over. It’s hard to blame San Antonio’s front office considering this team is right there with one of the best records every year during the regular season. But the downfall is not far away if they keep this group together, either.
Tim Duncan is 35, Manu Ginobli is 34, Richard Jefferson is 31, and even Tony Parker turns 30 in May. Duncan played second fiddle to Ginobli last year, seeing his production drop to 13.4 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, well below his career averages of 20.6 points and 11.4 rebounds.
Ginobli was their go-to player down the stretch, and he will continue to be. The crafty lefty averaged 17.4 points, 4.9 assists and 1.5 steals last season. Parker had a productive year, leading the team with 17.5 points while also dishing out 6.6 assists. Jefferson has not proven to be worth the excessive four-year, $39 million deal he signed two summers ago. He averaged 11.0 points and 3.8 rebounds.
The Spurs did not stand pat this offseason, though. They traded talented PG George Hill to the Indiana Pacers for the rights to draft Kawhi Leonard No. 15 overall. They also drafted Cory Joseph (No. 29), Davis Bertans (No. 42) and Adam Hanga (No. 59). The Spurs signed PG T.J. Ford, a free agent from the Indiana Pacers, as well. Ford has some character issues, but this is a team that can probably keep him in line with such a veteran presence.
San Antonio re-signed Steve Novak, but he has been cut this offseason. They also cut Antonio McDyess, which is a very strange move considering he played such a key role for them last year. He averaged 5.4 points and 5.4 rebounds off the bench, but at age 37, he certainly doesn’t have too many more years left in that body.
Splitting time at center will be starter Tiago Splitter and backup DeJuan Blair. The 6’, 7” Brazilian averaged just 4.6 points and 3.4 rebounds last year. The 26-year old Splitter could be in for a breakout season. Blair has proven to be a steal after being selected in the second round of the 2009 draft. He averaged 8.3 points and 7.0 rebounds last year despite being undersized (6’, 7”).
Western Conference Prediction: 2nd Southwest Division – After spending so much energy on getting the No. 1 seed in the playoffs last year only to see it backfire, the Spurs are going to take a different approach this season. While seeding will still matter, I don’t believe coach Gregg Popovich will put seeding over the health of his players.
I look for the focal point this year to be getting players healthy in time for the playoffs, while also keeping veterans rested down the stretch. San Antonio is still one of the best teams in the West, and they are good enough to hold down the No. 2 spot in this division. I expect the Spurs to have a Top 4 seed entering the playoffs.
World-renown handicapper Jack Jones gives a brief preview of every team with his 2011-12 NBA predictions article.
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