2012 San Diego Padres Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The San Diego Padres late season collapse in 2010 carried over into 2011, as the Padres went just 71-91 after winning 90 games the previous season. San Diego is hoping manager Bud Black can get this team back in contention in 2012. The Padres have made a couple of moves this offseason they hope will make a big difference. San Diego went out and traded for All-Star slugger Carlos Quentin to add some help offensively, and they also traded starter Matt Latos for starter Edinson Volquez and promising first baseman Yonder Alonso. Whether it will be enough to make them competitive is still up in the air. For now, let’s take a look at the Padres projected starting lineup, starting rotation and closer situation.
Projected Lineup
Nick Hundley (Catcher) – The Padres are hoping Hundley can stay healthy and finally give them a full season behind the plate. He missed significant time with two trips to the disabled list, but you can see why San Diego is excited about his potential. He hit .288 with nine home runs and 29 RBI in just 281 at-bats.
Yonder Alonso (First Base) – Alonso figures to finally get an opportunity for consistent playing time after being stuck behind Joey Votto in Cincinnati. The 24-year-old hit .330 with five home runs and 15 RBI in 45 games with the Reds last season. He will have to beat out Jeses Guzman, who really impressed the Padres last year with a .312 average, five home runs, and 44 RBI in just 247 at-bats.
Orlando Hudson (Second Base) – Hudson was a big disappointment in his first season in San Diego. He hit a career-worst .246 and had numerous lapses on defense that you can’t have at the big league level. Hudson is a .277 career hitter, so there is hope he can bounce back in 2012, but he is walking on thin ice.
Jason Bartlett (Shortstop) - Bartlett is another player who will be playing to keep his job in 2012. The 32-year-old hit just 2.45 with a .308 OBP. He has failed to live up to the expectations he set when he hit .320 with 14 home runs and 66 RBI with the Rays in 2009.
Chase Headley (Third Base) – Headley finished 2011 with a career best .289 batting average, but missed 39 games with a broken left pinkie. While he turns just 28 in May, his power numbers have been on the decline since hitting 12 home runs with 64 RBI in 2009.
Carlos Quentin (Left Field) – The Padres desperately need Quentin to be a force in the middle of the lineup. Despite playing in just 118 games with the White Sox last year, Quentin hit 24 home runs with 77 RBI. He has hit at least 21 home runs in each of the past four seasons, including a career-high 36 in 2008. The big question is whether or not he will be able to keep up that pace now that he is playing the majority of his games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Cameron Maybin (Center Field) -Maybin was arguably the Padres best player in the field and at the plate in 2011. Not only did he play outstanding defense, but he set career-highs with 82 runs, 136 hits, 24 doubles, eight triples, nine home runs, 40 RBI, and 40 stolen bases. The 24-year-old is definitely a player to keep your eye on, as he should only get better over the next five seasons.
Will Venable (Right Field) – Venable was so bad last season, he was sent down to the minors to try and get his swing figured out. The 29-year-old ended up hitting just .246 with nine home runs and 44 RBI. If he doesn’t show signs of getting things turned around, Guzman could steal his starting spot.
Projected Rotation
Tim Stauffer (RHP) – Stauffer went just 9-12 in his first full season as a starter, but his 3.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP are why he is considered the ace of this staff. The 29-year-old is primed for a breakout season in 2012. He could easily win 15+ games if the offense gives him a little more run support.
Edinson Volquez (RHP) – The Padres believe a change of scenery is just what Volquez needs to get his career back on track. Last year Volquez went just 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 20 starts with the Reds, but he will now make the majority of his starts in pitcher-friendly Petco Park instead of the launching pad in Cincinnati (Great American Ball Park).
Cory Luebke (LHP) – Luebke spent time as both a starter and a reliever in 2011, but he appears ready to become a full time starter in 2012. In 16 starts last season he posted an impressive 3.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. What has the Padres excited are his 172 strikeouts in 157.1 innings of work.
Clayton Richard (LHP) – Richard will try and regain his form from 2010, where he went 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He went just 5-9 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.42 WHIP last year, but made just 18 starts because of a shoulder injury.
Dustin Moseley (RHP) – Moseley also had his 2011 season cut short because of a shoulder problem. He finished up the year with a 3-10 record, but his 3.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are good indicators that he is poised for a much better season if he can stay healthy in 2012.
Projected Closer
Huston Street (RHP) - The Padres were unable to resign star closer Heath Bell, which forced them to go out and make a trade with the Rockies for Street. In 2011, Street converted 29 of 33 save opportunities with Colorado. The 28-year-old is excited about leaving hitter-friendly Coors Field and making a big impact with San Diego this season.
| 2012 San Diego Padres Odds | |
| World Series | +10000 |
| NL Pennant | +5000 |
| NL West | +1500 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O73.5 (-130) |
| U73.5 (+100) |
Over/Under BA in the 2012 Regular Season
Jason Bartlett – .273
Orlando Hudson – .268
Over/Under Total Stolen Bases in the 2012 Regular Season
Cameron Maybin – 34.5
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Edinson Volquez – 8.5
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Houston Street – 30.5
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