San Diego State at Air Force Spread
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The Air Force Falcons are set to host the San Diego State Aztecs on Thursday, October 13th in Mountain West action. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from losses Saturday, and each will be working on a short week of practice. This has been a very tight series over the last decade as these teams have split ten meetings, with each winning five. Air Force had won three in a row before a 27-25 road loss to SDSU in 2010.
According to the latest odds in Las Vegas, they have set a line of Air Force -6.5 over San Diego State.
Air Force
The Falcons come into this game off of their worst loss of the season, a 59-33 drubbing at Notre Dame. Air Force (3-2) suffered their other loss against then-No. 25 TCU 35-19 in Week 2. They have cupcake victories over South Dakota and Tennessee State, with their lone impressive win coming at Navy by a final of 35-34 (OT).
The Falcons actually outgained the Irish 565-560 on Saturday, though much of that yardage came in garbage time as they put up 17 points in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame’s 59 points were their most in 15 years, and they scored touchdowns on all six of their first-half possessions to take a 42-16 lead into intermission.
Air Force does feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They rank 8th in total offense (523.8 yards/game), including 2nd in rushing (364.2 yards/game). Their defense has been the biggest problem this year. The Falcons are 104th in the land in total defense (439.6 yards/game), including 117th against the run (235.2 yards/game).
This team is led by quarterback Tim Jefferson, who is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 630 yards and six touchdowns to three interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing with 232 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Asher Clark gets the bulk of the carries, and he has been very productive with 484 yards (9.3/carry) and three scores. Mikel Hunter is their leading receiver with seven grabs for 162 yards and two touchdowns.
San Diego State
The Aztecs have played a tougher schedule than Air Force, and it’s been pretty brutal over the last four weeks. After opening with a 49-21 victory over Cal Poly, San Diego State (3-2) would go on to beat Army 23-20 on the road and Washington State 42-24 at home. After opening 3-0, they lost at then-No. 22 Michigan 28-7 before a 27-14 home loss to TCU last week.
SDSU dug themselves a big early hole against the Horned Frogs on Saturday, falling behind 17-0 at halftime. They did get to within 20-14 in the second half behind a pair of touchdown passes from Ryan Lindley, but could not get any closer. TCU outgained the Aztecs 446-296 for the game and both teams committed four turnovers, with Lindley throwing three picks.
This is a team that ranks near the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball. The Aztecs are 63rd in total offense (391.2 yards/game), with their best asset being a ground game that is 40th in rushing (175.0 yards/game). They are 79th in the land in total defense (401.6 yards/game). Their pass defense (172.6 yards/game) has been solid, but their run defense (229.0 yards/game) has been the Aztecs’ biggest weakness.
Lindley is completing just 48.0 percent of his passes for 1,076 yards and 10 touchdowns to four interceptions. Sophomore running back Ronnie Hillman is having a solid season, rushing for 661 yards and eight touchdowns. Colin Lockett (22 receptions, 376 yards, three TD) and Dylan Denson (19, 252, two TD) are Lindley’s favorite targets at receiver.
Betting Trends
The underdog has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, though the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings at Air Force.
The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. However, Air Force is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
The Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
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