2011 San Diego State Football Predictions

Written by Steve Janus

The San Diego Aztecs capped off their 2010 season with a 35-14 win over Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl to finish the year 9-4. While it’s hard to be upset about winning nine games after winning just 10 in the previous three seasons, the Aztecs four losses came by a combined 15 points. Those four losses came against the likes of Missouri, BYU, TCU, and Utah. The Aztecs will have to go into 2011 without head coach Brady Hoke, who accepted the head coaching job at Michigan. San Diego replaced Hoke with defensive coordinator Rocky Long. who was the head coach at New Mexico from 1998-08. Long will take over a team that returns 13 starters.

While the Aztecs likely won’t be as good as they were a year ago, there is still enough talent to make it back to a bowl game in 2011. Here is a closer look at who San Diego State will send to the field on both sides of the ball, plus my prediction on where they will finish in the MWC.

Offense:

While the Aztecs lose a couple of NFL draft picks at wide receiver in Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, they bring back starting quarterback Ryan Lindley, who threw for 3,830 yards and 28 touchdowns as a junior. We will find out a lot about Lindley this season, as Brown and Sampson combined for 136 catches for 2,572 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Making things a lot easier on Lindley is the return of starting running back Ronnie Hillman, who couldn’t have been more impressive in his freshman season. Hillman ran for 1,532 yards and 17 touchdowns, breaking Marshall Faulk’s freshman rushing record of 1,429 yards. While it will be hard to match those numbers, Hillman figures to be even more of a focal point in the offense in 2011.

While the Aztecs lose Brown and Sampson, they do bring back some experience in the passing game with junior wide out Dominique Sandifer and sophomore tight end Gavin Escobar. Taking over for Brown and Sampson are redshirt freshmen Jay Waddell and Ezell Ruffin.

With four of five starters back on the offensive line, the Aztecs should have one of the top units in the trenches of all the MWC teams. Starting tackles Tommie Draheim and Kurtis Gunther are both considered to be one of the top offensive tackles in the MWC, and they also have a very talented guard in junior Nik Embernate. This group should allow Lindley time to make plays in the pocket and create some nice running lanes for Hillman.

Defense:

The Aztecs really made some nice improvements on the defensive side of the ball in 2010. They went from giving up 30.5 ppg in 2009, to just 22.1 ppg last year. This season they have just five starters returning, and senior defensive tackle Jerome Long is the only starter back on the defensive line. While they have to replace both starting ends, seniors J.J. Autele and Neil Spencer both have starting experience and should be able to hold down the starting jobs come this fall.

At linebacker the Aztecs have one of the top outside linebackers in the conference in senior Miles Burris. In 2010 Burris led the team with 80 tackles, 9.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss. They also bring back senior Logan Ketchum, who started all 13 games at the other outside spot. Added to the mix will be juniors Rob Andrews and Khalid Stevens.

In the secondary the Aztecs return another top talent in the MWC in junior corner Leon McFadden, who was third on the team with 55 tackles and tops in the secondary with 12 pass breakups and two interceptions. San Diego State also returns senior strong safety Brandon Davis, but will have to overcome the inexperience of redshirt freshman corner J.J. Whittaker and sophomore free safety Nat Berhe.

2011 Prediction: 4th MWC - While it is going to be hard for the Aztecs to overcome the loss of talent at wide receiver and deal with a head coaching change, this is still a team with a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. If this team can find a way to beat TCU at home, who they nearly beat on the road last season (35-40), I think they could finish as high as third in the MWC. The game that everyone has to be looking forward to is a non-conference showdown against Hoke and the Michigan Wolverines on Sept. 24.

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