San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers Line


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This Thursday the San Francisco 49ers will go on the road to take on the San Diego Chargers in a matchup between two teams fighting for their playoff lives. The 49ers moved within one game of the NFC West lead after their 40-21 win against Seattle last week, but San Francisco still trails both the Seahawks and Rams in the standings. The Chargers come in off a 31-0 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, and after starting the season 2-5, San Diego is just one game behind the Chiefs for the AFC West lead. The oddsmakers aren’t giving San Francisco much of a chance in this one, as the current odds have the Chargers favored by 9-points over the 49ers at home.

San Francisco (5-8): The 49ers are coming off one of their best performances of the season last week, in what was a must win game to keep their postseason hopes alive. San Francisco 30-7 halftime lead and was able to cruise to an easy win. Alex Smith returned to the starting lineup after watching Troy Smith lead the 49ers the past five games, and turned in a real solid performance. Smith completed 17 of 27 for 255 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Veteran running back Brian Westbrook wasn’t much of a factor on the ground against the Seahawks, managing just 23 yards on nine carries, but did lead the team with six catches for 87 yards, including a 62 yard catch and run for a touchdown. Anthony Dixon led the 49ers with 60 yards rushing.

Getting the offense going against the Chargers figures to be a bit more of a challenge for the 49ers, as San Diego has the No. 1 rated defense in the NFL, allowing just 265 yards of total offense a game, including a league-low 173 yards passing.

San Diego (6-6): This is make or break for the Chargers, as their is little hope of catching the Chiefs if they lose this game. San Diego is 5-2 at home this season, but did just lose to the Oakland Raiders on their home field a couple weeks ago.

While it has mainly been Philip Rivers leading the Chargers offense this season, San Diego got a nice performance from their two running backs against the Chiefs. Mike Tolbert carried it 16 times for 66 yards and a score, and Ryan Mathews returned from a three game absence to rush for 65 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.

Rivers finished 18 of 24 for 226 yards and two touchdowns, with just one interception. While the 49ers have had some success stopping the run this season, they haven’t been so good against the pass, allowing 227 yards a game. If the 49ers allow Rivers to find his rhythm, San Francisco had little chance in this game.

Looking at the Odds: I think you have to go with the hot hand and take the Chargers to cover the spread in this one. San Diego is 13-4 ATS vs. awful passing defenses – allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. Don’t worry about laying the points in this one, the Chargers are 17-6 ATS  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992. My final score prediction is San Diego 34, San Francisco 17

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