2012 Seattle Mariners Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Seattle Mariners were right in the thick of things in the AL West in July, but a 17-game losing streak put an end to any hopes of a surprise run at a division title. Seattle ended up finishing the season last in the division at 67-95. The Mariners were offensively challenged to say the least in 2011, which prompted the team to trade away rookie starter Michael Pineda for promising young catcher, Jesus Montero. It doesn’t appear that Seattle will be able to compete with the likes of the Angels and Rangers, but they should be able to finish ahead of a rebuilding squad in Oakland. Let’s take a look at the Mariners projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation.
Projected Lineup
Miguel Olivo (Catcher) – Olivo came over from the Rockies and cranked out 19 home runs with 62 RBI in his first season with the Mariners, but his .224 batting average will keep him from playing everyday. Not only did they add Montero this offseason, but they also acquired John Jaso from Tampa last season.
Justin Smoak (First Base) -Smoak got off to a great start in 2011, but a thumb injury and the death of his father caused him to falter down the stretch. The 25-year-old ended up hitting just .224 with 15 home runs and 55 RBI. The potential is their for a better campaign in 2012, but he will have to stay healthy to have any chance at a breakout season.
Dustin Ackley (Second Base) – The Mariners are really counting on Ackley to give them a spark offensively. The former No. 2 pick of the 2009 draft showed flashes of his potential after midseason call up. The 24-year-old hit .273 with seven triples, six home runs, 36 RBI, and six stolen bases in just 90 games. He should be a bigger threat this year, but his best numbers are likely a season or two away.
Brendan Ryan (Shortstop) – Ryan is more valuable on the defensive side than he is with his bat. He hit just .248 with three home runs and 39 RBI. He did add 13 steals, but simply isn’t a threat offensively.
Kyle Seager (Third Base) -Seager is expected to battle fellow youngster Alex Liddi for the starting job. Either way it doesn’t look like Seattle will get a lot out of the hot corner. Seager hit just .258 with three home runs and 13 RBI in 53 games, while Liddi ended up hitting just .225 with three home runs and six RBI in 15 games.
Mike Carp (Left Field) -Carp showed a lot of promise in his first extended look in the big leagues. He hit a respectable .276 with 12 home runs and 46 RBI in just 290 at-bats. He’s projected to hit in the middle of the order this season, and the Mariners need him to continue to develop.
Franklin Gutierrez (Center Field) -Gutierrez needs to bounce back from a dismal offensive performance in 2011. He hit just .224 with one home run and 19 RBI in 92 games. To his credit he was plagued by injuries and is a stellar defender, but he needs to show more at the plate if he is going to keep his job.
Ichiro Suzuki (Right Field) -It finally looks like Suzuki is on the decline. After 10 straight season with at least 200 hits and a plus-.300 average, Suzuki hit just .272 with just 184 hits in 161 games. He is just one year removed from hitting .315 with 214 hits, but at 38 its more likely we continue to see a decline than a resurgence.
Jesus Montero (Designated Hitter) – Montero will eventually become the teams everyday catcher, but for now he figures to get most of his at-bats as the DH. The 22-year-old hit .328 with four home runs and 12 RBI in just 61 at-bats in 2011. The big question for Montero is whether or not he can hold up over the course of a full season.
Projected Rotation
Felix Hernandez (RHP) – Hernandez came back to reality last season, after a couple of spectacular seasons. He ended up going 14-14 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 33 starts, pretty good numbers for most starters. In 2009 and 2010, Hernandez finished with an ERA under 2.50, so you can see he wasn’t quite up to his standards in 2011. He turns just 26 in April, so there is plenty of reason to believe he will get back on track in 2012.
Jason Vargas (LHP) - Vargas took a step in the wrong direction last year. After going 9-12 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2010, the 29-year-old went just 10-13 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 32 starts last season. Unless the offense completely turns it around, Vargas will struggle to reach double-digit wins in 2012.
Hisashi Iwakuma (RHP) – Seattle went out and signed Iwakuma from Japan with the hope he can translate his success overseas to the big leagues. The guy went 21-4 with a 1.87 ERA in 2008, but some question if he will be able to dominate major league hitters on a consistent basis.
Blake Beavan (RHP) -Beavan got his feet wet with 15 starts in 2011, posting a 4.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, just 42 in 97 innings, despite his imposing frame (6’7, 240 lbs.). Opposing batters also hit .279 against him. The 23-year-old is still a work in progress and I can’t see him being all that effective in 2012.
Hector Noesi (RHP) – Noesi came over from the Yankees in the Montero trade and is expected to get a shot at the fifth and final spot in the rotation. He was used mostly as a reliever last year, just two starts, and posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Not exactly the kind of numbers that make you think he will be an effective starter this season. If he struggles, look for Charlie Furbursh to take his place at the back of the rotation.
Projected Closer
Brandon League (RHP) – League really emerged as a legit closer in 2011. The 28-year-old saved 37 games in his first real stint as the go-to-guy in the ninth. His strong showing earned him an All-Star spot in 2011, and I see no reason why he can’t build on his performance from last year.
| 2012 Seattle Mariners Odds | |
| World Series | +10000 |
| AL Pennant | +6000 |
| AL West | +4500 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O71.5 (-125) |
| U71.5 (-105) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Justin Smoak – 15.5
Dustin Ackley – 11.5
Jesus Montero – 19.5
Over/Under Total Stolen Bases in the 2012 Regular Season
Ichiro Suzuki – 35.5
Over/Under BA in the 2012 Regular Season
Ichiro Suzuki – .300
Dustin Ackley – .275
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Felix Hernandez – 15.5
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Brandon League – 36.5
MLB Predictions by Team
Got something to say?
- Betting Basics
- Betting MLB Totals
- Big Favorites
- Dime Lines
- Guide to Betting
- First 5 Innings
- First Inning Bets
- How to Bet
- Interleague Play
- Key Numbers for Totals
- Matchups
- Money Lines Explained
- Parlay Returns
- Overnight Lines
- Rules
- Run Lines Explained
- Standings
- Sportsbooks
- Trends
- Underdog Betting Systems
- Handicapping
- Common Mistakes
- Listed Pitchers
- Hedging Run Line Bets
- Monitoring Umpires
- Revenge Systems
- Reverse Line Moves
- Spring Training
- Schedule
- Tips on Totals
- Preparing for Season
- Top Handicappers