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2012 SEC Basketball Tournament Predictions & Schedule

The 2012 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament is scheduled for March 8-11 at the New Orleans Arena. The two round of the tournament will be televised exclusively on the SEC Network, with the Semifinals and Championship game being broadcast nationally on ABC.  The Kentucky Wildcats won the regular season title with a perfect 16-0 record, and are a lock to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Mississippi State are also projected to make the field. Tennessee is currently one of the last four teams out, despite the fact that they are the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament. The Volunteers likely need to win a game or two to get off the bubble, while the rest of the teams need to earn the automatic bid by winning four games in four days. Here’s a closer look at the schedule, plus my game-by-game predictions up to the Championship Game on Sunday.

Schedule/Predictions

First Round – Thursday, March 8

Game 1 (1:00 EST) – No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 Arkansas – This is a difficult game to predict. Arkansas beat LSU 69-60 at home, but LSU returned the favor with a 71-65 win on their home floor. Neither one of these two teams are very good on the road. Arkansas has lost five of their last six overall and LSU comes in losers of three straight. I’m going to take LSU because the tournament is closer to their home, but it really doesn’t matter who wins this game. Next in line for LSU is Kentucky.

Game 2 (3:30 EST) – No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 South Carolina – South Carolina upset the Crimson Tide 56-54, which just so happened to be Alabama’s fourth straight loss. Since that game the Crimson Tide have won seven of their last 10, while South Carolina has lost 10 of their last 11 since that game. With revenge added into a tournament game, my money is on Alabama to win and to win big.

Game 3 (7:30 EST) – No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Auburn – The Tigers held on for a 69-68 double-overtime win over the Rebels back on Jan. 14. Mississippi State came back on won on their home floor 61-54. Auburn is not playing good basketball of late. They are just 2-6 over their last eight games. Mississippi State is red-hot with three straight wins, including a big road win at Arkansas and a solid home win over Alabama. I think Auburn will keep it close, but it’s the Rebels who will be headed to the second round.

Game 4 (10:00 EST) – No. 6 Mississippi State vs. No. 11 Georgia – Mississippi State lost at home to Georgia 68-70 in overtime on Feb. 11. That loss seemed to really rattle Mississippi State, as they went on to lose five in a row before holding on for 69-67 overtime win over South Carolina. They followed that up with a 20-point home win over Arkansas. I think Georgia will put a scare into Mississippi State, but I don’t think they will have what it takes to beat Mississippi State for a second time.

Quarterfinals – Friday, March 9

Game 5 (1:00 EST) – No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 8 LSU – Nothing against LSU, but I can’t see Kentucky losing this game. The Wildcats are by far the best team in this conference, and there are only a few teams who even have a chance at beating them. Kentucky won by 24-points at LSU in the only regular season matchup, and this one figures to get ugly in a hurry.

Game 6 (3:30 EST) – No. 4 Florida vs. No. 5 Alabama – The Gators have stummbled down the stretch. After winning seven straight and 9 of 11 overall, Florida lost three in a row to finish up the season, including a bad loss at Georgia 62-76. That poor finish will have some people doubting the Gators in this matchup, but Florida went on the road and beat Alabama 61-52. I look for Florida to come into this tournament with something to prove, and it starts with a win over the Crimson Tide.

Game 7 (7:30 EST) – No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Ole Miss – I believe the Volunteers will answer the call and bring home the win they need to make the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee has won eight of their last nine games overall, and were able to hold off the Rebels 73-60 in the only regular season matchup.

Game 8 (10:00 EST) – No. 3 Vanderbilt vs. No. 6 Mississippi State – The Bulldogs went on the road and beat Vanderbilt 78-77 in overtime back on Jan. 21. Beating the Commodores on their home floor is no easy task, but I don’t think Mississippi State is playing at the same level they were early in the season. I look for Vanderbilt to get their revenge and advance to the Semifinals.

Semifinals – Saturday, March 10

Game 9 (1:00 EST) – No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Florida – The Gators had two chances to knock off Kentucky in the regular season. They lost by 20-points on the road and 15-points at home. Kentucky doesn’t even have to play their best game to beat Florida. I think the Gators will play inspired and keep it close, but the Wildcats are just too talented to lose in this spot.

Game 10 (3:30 EST) – No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Vanderbilt – I really think the Volunteers are deserving of a bid to the NCAA Tournament. I think the quarterfinal win over Ole Miss puts them in a good spot, but a win over the Commodores and you can’t leave this team out of the field. These two teams split their two conference games.

Championship Game – Sunday, March 11

Game 11 (1:00 EST) – No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee – The Volunteers nearly beat Kentucky at home, but ended up losing 62-65. They didn’t exactly give the Wildcats a run for their money in Kentucky, losing that game 44-69. Hopefully those two wins are enough to get Tennessee into the tournament, because I don’t see them beating Kentucky. The Wildcats didn’t lose a single conference game during the regular season, and I don’t think they want to end that streak in the SEC Tournament.