Seeds & National Championship Odds

Written by Jack Jones - Google +

An important aspect of the NCAA tournament to understand is how each seed traditionally does. Obviously there will be exceptions to the rules, however, knowing the facts about each seed in the NCAA tournament bracket is going to help you overall. Here is how each seed has done in the first two rounds since 1985, some statistics on seeds and championship winners, plus this year’s odds on which seed will win the championship.

First Two Rounds

#1 Seeds
First Round: The #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed (108-0)
Second Round: The #1 seed is 41-10 (80%) against #8 seeds & 53-4 (93%) against #9 seeds.

#2 Seeds
First Round: The #2 seed is 104-4 (96%) against the #15 seed.
Second Round: The #2 seed is 47-17 (73%) when playing a #7 seed and 23-17 (58%) when playing a #10 seed.

#3 Seeds
First Round: The #3 seed is 92-16 (85%) against the #14 seed.
Second Round: #3 seeds are 33-26 (56%) versus #6 seeds and 22-11 (67%) against the #11 seed.

#4 Seeds
First Round: The #4 seed is 85-23 (79%) versus the #13 seed.
Second Round: #4 seeds have a 30-28 record (52%) against #5 seeds and a 16-11 record (59%) versus #12 seeds.

#5 Seeds
First Round: #5 seeds are 72-36 (67%) against the #12 seed.
Second Round: #5 seeds are 11-3 (79%) when playing the #13 seed.

#6 Seeds
First Round: The #6 seed is 72-36 (67%) over the #11 seed.

#7 Seeds
First Round: #7 seeds are 65-43 (60%) against the #10 seed.

#8 Seeds
First Round: #8 seeds are 51-57 (47%) against #9 seeds.

#10 Seeds
Second Round: The #10 seed is 3-0 (100%) when facing the #15 seed.

#11 Seeds
Second Round: #11 seeds are 3-0 (100%) against the #14 seed.

#12 Seeds
Second Round: The #12 seed is 8-1 (89%) when playing the #13 seed.

NCAA Tournament Seed Facts

#1 Seeds have won 15 of the last 25 titles (60%)
#2 Seeds have 3 wins in that same time period (12%)
#3 Seeds also have 4 wins in that time frame (16%)
#4 Seeds have won 1 championship (4%)
#5 Seeds have never won an NCAA Championship (0%)
#6 Seeds have recorded 1 NCAA Tournament Championship (4%)
#7 Seeds have never won an NCAA Championship (0%)
#8 Seeds have won 1 NCAA Championship (4%)

No seed greater than a #8 has ever won the championship and the one #8 seed that did win (Villanova) was in 1985, the first year the tournament field was expanded to 64 teams. So, remember when you are trying to predict who will win the NCAA championship: the 1-3 seeds have accounted for better than 80% of all NCAA tournament champions.

With that in mind, here is a look at the odds for each seed to win the 2012 NCAA Basketball Tournament:

#1 Seed            5/8
#2 Seed            4/1
#3 Seed            6/1
#4 Seed            11/2
#5 Seed            20/1
#6 Seed            25/1
#7 Seed            30/1
#8 Seed            50/1
#9 Seed            40/1
#10 Seed        50/1
#11 Seed        35/1
#12 Seed        55/1
#13-16 Seed        22/1

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