SMU at UCF Odds
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
This Saturday the Southern Methodist Mustangs will go on the road to take on the Central Florida Knights in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Mustangs were able to hold on for a 45-38 overtime win at East Carolina last week, and even though Tulsa finished with the same record in the West, the Mustangs advance to the title game thanks to a 21-18 win over the Golden Hurricanes earlier this season. The Knights capped off their regular season with an easy 37-17 win over Memphis, and head to the title game with just one conference loss this season (Southern Miss). The oddsmakers seem to think UCF has the clear advantage in this one, as the current odds have the Knights favored by 9-points over the Mustangs at home.
SMU (7-5, 6-2 C-USA): The Mustangs offense has really looked sharp in their last two games, totaling 450 yards of total offense against Marshall and then another 415 yards last week against East Carolina, and will need all the offense they can get against a UCF team that comes in averaging just over 35 points a game this season.
Quarterback Kyle Padron threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns last week, and while the entire team has to play well, Padron has to be on his game for the Mustangs to come out on top. Not only is Padron a threat with his arm, but he is second on the team with 251 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Wide out Alrick Robinson is a big play waiting to happen, as he comes in averaging nearly 21 yards a catch. Robinson leads the team with 57 catches for 1,182 yards, and expect Padron to look his way early and often in this one.
Running back Zach Line rushed for 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns during the regular season, and really finished strong with 325 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. The Knights come into the game ranked 11th against the run, allowing just 111.5 yards per game, but I think if the Knights stick with Line he can have a big game. Earlier this season Line ran for 139 yards and a touchdown against a very good TCU defense.
UCF (9-3, 7-1 C-USA): It has been pretty easy going for the Knights this season in conference play. Other than their 31-21 loss to Southern Miss, the closest game they had was a seven point win at Houston, every other game was decided by 14 points or more. On top of averaging 35 points a game, the Knights defense is allowing just 19 points, but it’s unlikely they will keep a solid SMU offense under 20 points this weekend.
Offensively the Knights have done most of their damage running the ball, as they come into the game averaging 196.5 yards a game on the ground. Ronnie Weaver leads the team with 855 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Latavius Murray has 439 yards and nine touchdowns. Quarterback Jeffrey Godfrey also plays a factor in the running game, as he is second behind Weaver with 529 yards and nine touchdowns. Godfrey has been more impressive throwing the ball of late. In his last five games he has 10 touchdowns to just just two interceptions, and is completing nearly 73% of his passes during that stretch.
Looking at the Odds: I just don’t think the Mustangs have enough offensive fire power to go on the road and make a game of it against the Knights. UCF is 11-1 ATSÂ when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons, and I just don’t see how the Mustangs can keep them under that total in this game. UCF is 13-3 ATS against conference opponents, and 12-4 ATSÂ as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. My final score prediction is UCF 38, SMU 24.
2 Responses to “SMU at UCF Odds”
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SMU is a lock. Take the points. The have the best receiver in CUSA. They have the best running back in CUSA. There defense is much improved. Plus … there is no pressure on them. They are just coming back into the fold. UCF has been there many times. They are at home. I like the Ponies and the points.
I like your reasoning Chad. Good luck if you end up taking them.