Southern Miss at Houston Line
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The No. 6 Houston Cougars will look to keep their perfect season alive when they host the No. 24 Southern Miss Golden Eagles in the Conference USA Championship Game on Saturday. The Cougars secured their spot in the title game with an impressive 48-16 win at Tulsa. Houston and Tulsa were both 7-0 in the West Division coming into that game. Southern Miss wrapped up the East Division with a 44-7 win at home over Memphis, finishing one-game ahead of Marshall at 6-2 in conference play. The Golden Eagles knocked off Houston 59-41 last year, but the Cougars played that game without starting quarterback Case Keenum.
Taking a look at the week 14 lines, oddsmakers currently have Houston favored by 13-points over Southern Miss with the total set at 71 points.
Southern Miss:
The Golden Eagles aren’t going to get a lot of respect coming into this game, but they are more than capable of pulling off the upset. Southern Miss two conference losses came on the road against Marshall (20-26) and UAB (31-34), two games they could have very easily won. If you need evidence that this team can hang with some of the top teams, just look at their 20-24 win at Virginia, who ended up just missing out on playing in the ACC title game.
In order to keep it close against Houston the Golden Eagles are going to have to score a lot of points, which is something they have done a pretty good job of this season. Southern Miss comes in averaging 36.9 ppg behind a very balanced offensive attack that averages 207.8 ypg on the ground and another 261.9 ypg through the air.
Senior quarterback Austin Davis put together another incredible season in 2011. Davis completed just under 63% of his attempts for 3,052 yards with 24 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. His two big options in the passing game are Ryan Balentine and Kelvin Bolden. The duo has combined for 99 catches for 1,359 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The offense doesn’t just rely on the arm of Davis, as they have a number of backs who can do something on the ground. Jamal Woodyard leads the team with 653 yards. but their are five other players who have rushed for at least 285 yards. A lot of the credit goes to their offensive line, who have done an excellent job paving holes all season long. Five different players average at least 4.9 yards per carry with each having at least 49 attempts.
While Davis will get a lot of the attention coming into the game, I believe the Golden Eagles will have their most success running the ball. Houston is 72nd in the nation against the run, giving up 168.8 ypg. Not only should Southern Miss have success running the ball, but at the same time it will eat up the clock and keep Houston’s offense off the field.
Houston:
If there was any doubt about whether or not the Cougars were legit, their blowout win over Tulsa should have put an end to that. There is no denying that Houston has played an extremely soft schedule, but this team has answered the call week in and week out.
Offensively their isn’t a better unit in the nation when it comes to putting up points. The Cougars come in leading the nation with an average of 52.7 points per game. Their high-powered offensive attack averages a ridiculous 613 ypg.
Most of the offense comes from the arm of senior quarterback Case Keenum, who has Houston leading the nation with 449.7 passing yards per game. Keenum has completed 73.2% of his attempts for 4,726 yards with 43 touchdowns to just three interceptions. While he likely won’t win the Heisman because of the conference he plays in, his numbers definitely make him worthy.
Just how good is Houston’s passing attack? Three different players have caught at least 63 passes. Patrick Edwards has 1,496 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns on 74 catches, Justin Johnson has 910 yards and nine touchdowns on 63 receptions, and Tyron Carner has a team-high 83 catches for 873 yards and five scores.
Teams have to pay so much attention to the Cougars ability to pass the ball that it often leaves big holes in the running game. Charles Sims and Michael Hayes have each scored nine touchdowns a piece while combining for 1,407 yards. and Bryce Beall has added another seven rushing touchdowns.
Southern Miss comes into this game with the 25th ranked defense in yards allowed, giving up just 338.4 ypg, but their biggest weakness is stopping the pass. They are 54th in passing yards allowed at 221 ypg. They aren’t going to keep Keenum from throwing for 300+, but the Cougars have to take care of the football if they are going to win this game. Southern Miss has forced 24 turnovers on the season, including 14 over their last six games.
Betting Trends:
Southern Miss is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Houston is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.
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