St. Louis Cardinals 2010 Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The St. Louis Cardinals made all the right moves to win the NL Central last season, posting a 91-71 record before a quit exit in the first round of the postseason, losing to the Dodgers. They brought in Matt Holliday, Julio Lugo, Mark DeRosa and John Smoltz. It did cost the Cardinals five minor leaguers, but they went on to win 32 of their first 43 games with Holliday in the line-up. They also managed to get Holliday locked up long term by signing him to a seven-year, $120 million deal. He is the perfect clean-up hitter behind Albert Pujols. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright were each in the Cy Young discussion last year and headed a rotation that finished with a 3.66 ERA. By season’s end, Pujols became only the fourth player in league history to lead the majors in HR’s, RBI’s, and batting average for an entire decade. He also won his third MVP award, tying Stan Musial as the only player to do that in Cardinals’ history. This team has the nucleus to get back to the postseason, and MLB odds show us that the Cardinals projected win total is set at 88.5.

Pitching:

No. 1 Chris Carpenter came back from injury last season to put up ridiculous numbers, going 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA while pitching over 192 innings. He finished second in the Cy Young voting, just ahead of third-place Adam Wainwright who is the Cardinals’ No. 2 starter. Wainwright led the NL in wins with 19 and finished fourth in both ERA (2.63) and strikeouts (212). He received the most first-place votes in the Cy Young voting for his efforts. No. 3 Kyle Lohse looks to rebound from an injury-plagued ‘09 in which he went 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA. The team brought in Brad Penny to fill in as the No. 4 starter, and Blake Hawksworth will likely get the first crack as the No. 5 guy after going 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA coming out of the bullpen in limited action last season. The bullpen is solid with Ryan Ranklin closing out ball games. Franklin went 4-3 with a 1.92 ERA while recording 38 saves last year. Kyle McClellan went 4-4 with a 3.38 ERA and he’s a primary set-up man. There’s also youngster Jason Motte, along with Dennys Reyes as their left-handed specialist out of the bullpen. The rotation posted a 3.66 ERA last year as a unit, while the bullpen registered a 3.67 ERA for the season. So the staff should be in good hands again, though the losses of Joel Pineiro and Todd Wellemeyer could hurt.

Hitting:

Catcher Yadier Molina is one of the best in the business behind the plate. He blocks pitches in the dirt and has excellent arm strength to intimidate base runners. He also hits for a high average, hitting .293 and .304 the past two seasons, respectively. What more is there to say about 1B Albert Pujols? He is the best hitter in baseball and has proven it year after year over the past decade. Last season was his best yet, hitting .327 with 47 HR’s, 135 RBI’s, 124 Runs and 16 SB’s. 2B Skip Schumaker has hit over .300 in his past three seasons with the Cardinals and he’s a great guy to have at leadoff. SS Brendan Ryan improved greatly last season with a full workload, hitting .292 with 14 SB’s. 3B goes to prospect David Freese who has excellent offensive and defensive skills to finally play an every day role with the team. The outfield features Matt Holliday in left, Colby Rasmus in center and Ryan Ludwick in right. Holliday is already a superb hitter, but he was even better with the luxury of hitting behind Pujols last season. Holliday played just 63 games with the Cardinals last season, hitting .354 with 13 HR’s, 55 RBI’s and 42 SB’s. Rasmus showed some power last year, hitting 16 HR’s in his rookie season. He should only get better in 2010. Ludwick hit .265 with 22 HR’s and 97 RBI’s last season. That was a big drop off from his .299 average with 37 HR’s and 113 RBI’s in 2008, but still solid numbers nonetheless.

Jack’s Prediction: 1st in the NL Central and OVER 88.5 Wins – This team really has it all. The Cardinals have one of the best 3-4 combinations in baseball with Pujols and Holliday They play excellent defense in support of a solid rotation led by Wainwright and Carpenter, along with a bullpen that can close out leads with the best of ‘em. There’s no reason to believe that St. Louis won’t win 90-plus games again this season and take down the NL Central crown. The biggest concern is at the bottom of their rotation where they have to replace Pineiro and Wellemeyer, but Penny and a healthy Lohse could be just what the doctor ordered.

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