2012 St Louis Cardinals Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The St Louis Cardinals head into the 2012 season off one of the most improbable World Series wins in the history of the game. If it wasn’t for the Braves unexplainable collapse at the end of the season, St Louis wouldn’t have even made the playoffs. The Cardinals then stunned the heavily favored Phillies in the first round, winning game 5 by a final of 1-0. They were down to their final out twice in Game 6 of the World Series against the Rangers, but found a way to win that game and beat Texas again in Game 7.
In order to repeat this season, St Louis will have to adjust to life without manager Tony La Russa, who decided it was time to retire, and arguably the best hitter in the game in Albert Pujols, who signed a free agent contract with the Angels. The team did add veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran and welcome back ace Adam Wainwright after he missed all of last season. Let’s take a look at the Cardinals projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation.
Projected Lineup
Yadier Molina (Catcher) – Molina has been an elite catcher defensively for several years, but it looks like the Cardinals can rely on him to be a threat offensively as well. Molina’s .305 batting average, 32 doubles, 14 home runs, and 65 RBI in 2011 were all career best.
Lance Berkman (First Base) – Berkman signed with the Cardinals after a horrible 2010 season, where he hit just .248 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI. Needless to say he blew away expectations by hitting .301 with 31 home runs and 94 RBI in 145 games, landing him seventh in NL MVP voting. He gives the Cardinals a pretty good fill in for Pujols at first base.
Skip Schumaker (Second Base) – Schumaker doesn’t have a lot of power, just 22 home runs in 703 career games, but he’s a career .290 hitter who the Cardinals can rely on. However, he may end up losing some playing time to 25-year-old Daniel Descalso.
Rafael Furcal (Shortstop) – St Louis went out and traded for Furcal during the 2011 season, and liked enough of what they saw to bring him back for 2012. He hit .231 with seven home runs and 16 RBI in just 50 games with the Cardinals. The big concern here is Furcal’s inability to stay on the field. He has played in 100 games just once in the last four seasons.
David Freese (Third Base) – Freese has fans excited after hitting .397 with five home runs and 21 RBI in the postseason, but it’s hard telling if that will translate over a full season. Freese hit .297 with 10 home runs and 55 RBI during the regular season, but injuries limited him to just 97 games.
Matt Holliday (Left Field) – Holliday is as consistent as they come in left field with plenty left in the tank at 32. He was limited to just 124 games last year, but still hit .296 with 22 home runs and 75 RBI. Look for him to hit around .315 with 25 home runs and 100 RBI in 2012.
Jon Jay (Center Field) – Jay has shown enough in his first two seasons in the league to warrant a full-time job. He hit .297 with 10 home runs and 37 RBI in 455 at-bats in 2011. The 27-year-old still has room to grow, but don’t expect a huge jump in production.
Carlos Beltran (Right Field) – Beltran really bounced back nicely after injury-plagued seasons in 2009 and 2010. The veteran hit .300 with 22 home runs and 84 RBI with the Mets and Giants last year. He’s no longer a threat on the bases, but there is still plenty of pop left in his bat.
Projected Rotation
Chris Carpenter (RHP) – Carpenter ended up going 11-9 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 34 starts. The 36-year-old still has the stuff to be an ace, but there is some concern of a letdown season. The guy has pitched 508.1 innings over the last two years.
Adam Wainwright (RHP) – The Cardinals are banking on Wainwright to be back in form after undergoing Tommy John surgery that kept him out all of 2011. It’s hard to believe the Cardinals won the World Series without their best starter pitching a single game, Wainwright went 20-11 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 33 starts during the 2010 season.
Jaime Garcia (LHP) – Garcia didn’t quite live up to the expectation he set in his first season as a starter, but the future definitely looks bright for the 25-year-old lefty. Garcia’s ERA jumped from 2.70 in 2010 to 3.56 in 2011, but he matched his 1.32 WHIP and 13-win mark. He has the stuff to be the ace of this staff and a 15-game winner as soon as this season.
Kyle Lohse (RHP) -Lohse led the Cardinals with 14 wins in 2011, which was a pretty big surprise considering he went 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA in 18 starts during the 2010 season. His 3.39 ERA and 1.17 WHIP were both career best. Hard telling if the 33-year-old will be able to build off that performance in 2012.
Jake Westbrook (RHP) – Westbrook ended up with a respectable 12-9 record in 33 starts, but his 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP will keep him at the bottom of the rotation. When he’s got control of his sinking fastball he can be extremely tough to hit, so another double-digit win season is definitely within reach.
Projected Closer
Jason Motte (RHP) – If it wasn’t for the emergence of Motte in the closers role, St Louis would have likely never made the playoffs. Motte converted 18 of 22 save opportunities while posting a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The other pitchers who attempted to close the ninth for St Louis blew a combined 22 save opportunities.
| 2012 St Louis Cardinals Odds | |
| World Series | +2500 |
| NL Pennant | +1100 |
| NL Central | +190 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O85.5 (-115) |
| U85.5 (-115) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Matt Holliday – 26.5
Lance Berkman – 24.5
Carlos Beltran – 20.5
David Freese – 15.5
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Adam Wainwright – 13.5
Jaime Garcia – 12.5
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Jason Motte – 30.5
MLB Predictions by Team
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