St. Mary’s vs Baylor Picks


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Friday night’s Sweet 16 action treats us to the #10 seed St. Mary’s Gaels against the #3 seed Baylor Bears.  St. Mary’s pulled the first round upset over #7 seed Richmond, then shocked a lot of people by knocking off #2 seed Villanova in the second round.  Baylor hasn’t been exactly dominating so far in the tournament, but they’ve gotten the job done.  The Bears scored wins over Sam Houston State and Old Dominion to earn the right to play in the Sweet 16.  Friday’s matchup should be a close contest and the most recent odds reflect that.  Baylor is currently the favorite by 4 to 4.5 points.  The over/under for the game has been set at 142.5.

#10 St. Mary’s against #3 Baylor - Baylor is a balanced team.  Most of their points come from LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter at the guard positions, but they do have a pair of big men than can provide offense as well in Ekpe Udoh (13.9 points per game) and Quincy Acy off of the bench (9.2 points per game).  The Bears can play with just about anyone in the tournament because of the matchup problems they create, but they haven’t been truly tested yet and that may end up being their worst enemy against St. Mary’s.  The Gaels have a stud in center Omar Samhan, who averages 21.5 points and 10.9 rebounds per game.  Guard Micky McConnell is a nice compliment to Samhan, chipping in with 14 points per game.  Scoring isn’t a problem for St. Mary’s as they have 5 players that averaged double-digit points this season.  The big question will be if they can handle Baylor’s backcourt when they are on defense.  I think Baylor has enough size to help neutralize Samhan in the paint, making the guard matchups all the more important.  St. Mary’s has a talented squad, but I have to give an edge to Dunn and Tweety on the outside against the Gaels.  Baylor moves on, but it’s a very close game.

Final Score Prediction: Baylor 72, St. Mary’s 70

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