California at Stanford Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the No. 8 Stanford Cardinal will look to get back on track when they host the California Golden Bears.Stanford’s hopes of playing for a National Championship were crushed after they fell 30-53 at home to Oregon this past Saturday. The loss will also keep Stanford out of the PAC-12 Championship game, despite having the conference’s second best overall record. The Cardinal will take on a Golden Bears team that is coming off back-to-back home wins over Washington State and Oregon State. Stanford had no trouble downing the Golden Bears a season ago, as they dominated 48-14 at Cal to snap a short two game losing streak in this series.

Taking a look at the week 12 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have Stanford favored by 18-points over California with the total set at 55.5 points.

California:

The Golden Bears recent two game winning streak marks the first time this team has won consecutive games since opening the season 3-0. Both wins came at home, where Cal is an impressive 4-1 this season. While this team’s confidence level is high, they have struggled to play well on the road. The Golden Bears haven’t won an away game since beating Colorado 36-33 in overtime back in early September. Their last two trips on the road resulted in a 9-30 loss to Oregon and an embarrassing 14-31 loss to UCLA.

In their last game against Oregon State Cal jumped out to a 14-6 halftime lead behind the strong play of junior quarterback Zack Maynard, who hit Michael Calvin for a 19-yard touchdown and then later ran one in from 5-yards out. Maynard finished the game 13 of 19 for 128 yards.

Most of the damage offensively came from their new found running game that piled on 296 yards on 46 attempts. Isi Sofele led the way with 190 yards and a touchdown, while C.J. Anderson added another 96 yards on 14 attempts.The Golden Bears racked up 288 yards in their previous win against Washington State.

If Cal can have that kind of success against the Cardinal, they could very well keep this game closer than a lot of people expect. Stanford allowed Oregon to run for 232 yards, but they held the Ducks well below their season average of 291 yards. Even with the huge yardage they allowed to Oregon, Stanford still ranks 7th in the country giving up just 94.2 ypg on the ground.

Stanford:

This is going to be a very difficult game for Stanford, as they really had their hopes set on playing for the National Championship. Head coach David Shaw is going to have to rally his troops and remind them that if they can put together back-to-back wins over Cal and Notre Dame they will still be playing in a BCS game this January.

Andrew Luck and the Cardinal offense were unable to match the high-powered attack of Oregon. Stanford trailed by a score of 16-23 at half, but were dominated 31-14 over the final two periods. Luck threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns, but also had threw two interceptions.

Luck connected with Griff Whalen nine times for 107 yards and two touchdowns and hooked up with tight end Coby Fleener four times for 56 yards, but you have to wonder if there would have been a different outcome if Luck had senior wide out Chris Owusu, who is second on the team with 35 catches. Owusu isn’t expected to be back against Cal, as he continues to recover from a concussion he suffered against Oregon State.

The big surprise was the inability of Stanford to get the running game going. The Cardinal average just over 215 yards per game on the ground, but were held to just 129 yards on 35 attempts.

The Cardinal offense better come ready to play if they want to get a win against the Golden Bears this Saturday. Cal has allowed a total of 13 points in their last two games and are 17th in total yards allowed (319.1 ypg) and 28th against the run (119.9 ypg).

Betting Trends:

California is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Stanford is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Steve Janus is the No. 3 college football handicapper in 2011, and is ready to help you turn a profit with his week 12 college football selections.

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