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Steelers 49ers Spread

The San Francisco 49ers are set to host the Pittsburgh Steelers on ESPN’s Monday Night Football in a crucial game for both teams. Coming into the season, nobody could have imagined what would be at stake. These are two three-loss teams that are looking for at least a first-round bye in the playoffs in their respective conferences. The 49ers have won four of the last six meetings in this series. The Steelers have won two of the last three over San Francisco, including a 37-16 home victory in their most recent meeting in 2007.

Taking a look at the Week 15 spreads, I find a line of San Francisco -2.5 over Pittsburgh.

San Francisco

The 49ers have been the surprise of the league this season. San Francisco (10-3, 6-1 home) already clinched the NFC West division last week with a 26-0 victory over St. Louis. They would suffer a bit of a letdown last week, losing to the Arizona Cardinals 21-19. It wasn’t such a bad loss considering Arizona has now won five of their last six. This will be the home finale for the 49ers, who will hit the road to face Seattle and St. Louis over the final two weeks.

San Francisco held a 19-7 lead on Arizona early in the third quarter after a 37-yard touchdown run by Frank Gore. However, the Cardinals would fight back, scoring two touchdowns to take the lead for good with 11:50 remaining. The 49ers finished with just 233 yards of offense and did not play well enough to win. Alex Smith completed 18 of 37 passes for 175 yards, and Gore rushed for 72 yards and a score. Their lackluster offense could not capitalize on three Arizona turnovers.

The 49ers rank just 26th in the league in total offense (309.0 yards/game) but 5th in total defense (305.0 yards/game). As you can see, they are barely outgaining opponents on the year. What has made this team so special is that they are +21 in turnovers, which is the best ratio in the NFL. The 49ers could be getting star MLB Patrick Willis (questionable) back this week from a hamstring injury. He would only help contribute to their top-ranked run defense (70.5 yards/game). Expect a heave dose of Gore (1,054 yards, six TD) and timely passing from Smith (61.7% completions, 15 TD, 5 INT) offensively in this one.

Pittsburgh

The Steelers are a gutsy team, and nobody exemplifies that more than Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh (10-3, 4-2 away) sits in a first-place tie atop the AFC North division with the Baltimore Ravens. They are also in a four-way tie along with the Ravens, Patriots and Texans for the best record in the AFC. As of right now, they would be the No. 5 seed. However, they are really just one win away from taking over the No. 1 seed in the AFC provided they could get those other three teams to lose.

Pittsburgh’s grit was on display in their 14-3 victory over the Cleveland Browns last Thursday. The Steelers saw Roethlisberger go down with a high ankle sprain late in the second quarter. He was carted off the field, and it appeared he would not be able to return. As he’s done so many times, Roethlisberger was able to return for the second half. He simply willed this team to a victory, fittingly throwing a 79-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Brown with 2:52 to play to put the game away for good. He finished 16 of 21 passing for 280 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the win.

The Steelers come in ranked 11th in the league in total offense (371.6 yards/game) and 2nd in total defense (276.1 yards/game). Roethlisberger is completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 3,526 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. While he’s listed as questionable, I fully expect him to play considering he has an extra four days of rest to get ready after playing last Thursday. The Steelers will be without LB James Harrison, who has been suspended one game for his helmet-to-helmet hit that led to Colt McCoy concussion. C Maurkice Pouncey injured his ankle against Cleveland and did not return, but he is listed as probable for this game with San Francisco.

Betting Trends

The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, but just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.

The 49ers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, and 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games.