2012 Allstate Sugar Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The Michigan Wolverines and Virginia Tech Hokies are set to face off in the 2012 Allstate Sugar Bowl. Both teams received an automatic bid to play in a BCS bowl, but not everyone agrees that these two teams deserve to be playing in this game. Many believe Michigan State is more deserving out of the Big Ten, while others feel Boise State should be playing ahead of both of these teams. Michigan didn’t even win their own division in the Big 10, while Virginia Tech lost 10-38 in the ACC title game against Clemson. Kickoff is set for Tuesday, January 3 at 8:30 ET and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Taking a look at the college football bowl spreads, oddsmakers currently have Michigan favored by 2.5-points over Virginia Tech with the total sitting at 51 points.

Michigan:

Whether or not the Wolverines deserve to be playing in this game, you have to give a lot of credit to what head coach Brady Hoke has done in his first season at Michigan. Michigan had won a total of 15 games the last three seasons.

The Wolverines finished up the 2011 season with a 10-2 record. They finished second in the Big Ten Legends Division with a 6-2 conference mark, which is where the controversy starts. The team ahead of them was Michigan State, who beat Michigan 28-14 during the season. It was almost as if the Spartans got punished for playing and losing in the Big Ten Championship game. Either way, Michigan is going to be extremely excited about getting the opportunity to show why they got picked to play in this game. They will also be motivated to win their first bowl game since 2007, when they knocked off Florida 41-35 in the Capital One Bowl.

Michigan features one of the most electric players in all of college football in junior quarterback Denard Robinson, which I believe is a big reason why they got picked to play in this game. While Robinson struggled as a passer, completing just 56% of his attempts for 2,056 yards with 18 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, he led the Wolverines with 1,163 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground.

The Wolverines finished 12th in the country in rushing behind the outstanding play of Robinson and sophomore running back Fitzgerald Toussaint. The two helped Michigan average 235.7 ypg on the ground. Toussaint finished with 1,011 yards and nine touchdowns, and looks like a future star going forward for this program.

The big question will be whether or not the Wolverines can rely on that ground game against the Hokies. Virginia Tech comes in 16th in the country against the run, giving up just 107.8 ypg, but were torched for 217 yards and two scores in their most recent loss to Clemson.

Virginia Tech:

The Hokies are a hard team to figure out. They ended up finishing the season with an impressive 11-2 record, but I question just how good this team really is. Both losses came against a very good team in Clemson, but they didn’t even come close to winning either of those games, including a 3-23 loss on their home field. Virginia Tech had some nice wins over solid teams like Miami, Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Virginia, but their 37-26 win over Georgia Tech was the only win they had against a ranked opponent. Last year the Hokies won the ACC with an identical 11-2 record, only to get blown out 12-40 in the Orange Bowl against Stanford.

The Hokies also feature one of the more exciting players in college football in junior running back David Wilson, who is a big reason why Virginia Tech finished with 11 wins. Wilson finished fifth in the country with 1,627 yards on the ground, but managed to score just nine rushing touchdowns. Wilson was a complete disappointment in the ACC Championship Game, rushing for just 32 yards on 11 attempts.

I believe the key to Virginia Tech winning this game is the play of sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas. The youngster struggled early, but really played well over the Hokies seven-game winning streak. He ended up completing 59.2% of his attempts for 2,799 yards with 19 touchdowns to nine interceptions. Thomas added another 416 yards on the ground and a team-best 10 rushing touchdowns.

The Hokies are going to have to play a lot better than they did against Clemson if they plan on having a big game against the Wolverines defense. Michigan made huge strides defensively this season. They come in 34th against the run (129.1 ypg) and 16th against the pass (188.5 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Michigan is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Predicted Score: Michigan 27, Virginia Tech 24

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this college football bowl season.

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