2011 Sun Belt Football Predictions
Written by Steve Janus
The Sun Belt might be considered the weakest of the Division 1 conferences, but the competition inside this conference is something few conferences can match. In 2010 Florida International and Troy both finished with a conference-best 6-2 mark (FIU beat Troy), but eight of the nine teams either finished at .500 or better or were one win away from finishing at .500. When you combine the parity of these teams with the emphasis this conference puts on the offensive side of the ball, it really makes for some entertaining games.
The parity of the Sun Belt makes it difficult to predict how these teams will finish in the conference standings. You really have to look at the talent these teams lost, as it’s not easy for these schools to go out and reload. Based off my experience with these teams, here is a look at how I see the Sun Belt shaping up in 2011.
1. Florida International Golden Panthers – The Golden Panthers shocked everyone by winning the Sun Belt last season, and then went on to upset Toledo in the Little Caesars Bowl to finish the year 7-6 overall. It was the first time the Golden Panthers had ever finished with a winning record. Not bad when you consider they didn’t even start playing football here until 2002. Head coach Mario Cristobal deserves a lot of credit for what he has done in his first four seasons. With 15 starters back and a home game against Troy, I will call for the Golden Panthers to defend their title in 2011.
2. Troy Trojans – Troy has been the most consistent team in the Sun Belt, winning or sharing the conference title in each of the last five years, and will once again be one of the top teams in 2011. The Trojans have a solid 13 starters back this season, but will have to replace star wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan, who led the team with 84 catches for 822 yards and six touchdowns. Jernigan was also a factor in the running game, rushing for 322 yards and three touchdowns. The Trojans will have to rely more on their defense to win games this season, as they should have the best defense in the Sun Belt. Troy got crushed by FIU in 2010, losing 52-35 at home, and I just don’t think they will have the offense to keep up with the Golden Panthers on the road this season.
3. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks -While the Warhawks finished 2010 with a 5-7 overall record, it was a successful first season under head coach Todd Berry, who led ULM to a 4-4 conference record with just nine returning starters. The Warhawks were one of two teams to beat Troy in conference play, and lost to FIU in overtime. This year Berry has 17 starters back, including 10 on the offensive side of the ball. ULM is a big time sleeper in the Sun Belt this season. If they can beat FIU at home on Nov. 19, they could surprise everyone and win the conference title.
4. Arkansas State Red Wolves -The Red Wolves are another team that could make some noise in the Sun Belt this season. They went just 4-8 overall in 2010, but were a solid 4-4 in conference play. All four conference losses were decided by 7-points or less, which shows you this team was better than their record might indicate. What has me holding back on picking the Red Wolves to finish higher in the standings, is they will have to go through the adjustment phase of learning the new systems of new head coach Hugh Freeze.
5. North Texas Mean Green – North Texas use to dominate this conference, but have not had much success of late. Since winning the Sun Belt with a perfect 7-0 conference record in 2004, the Mean Green are just 9-35 over the last seven years. They finished 2010 3-9 overall and 3-5 in conference play. While things haven’t been very good of late, I really like the hire of new head coach Dan McCarney, who did a solid job turning a bad Iowa State program around. It will take some time for McCarney to get his players into the system, but I think we will see immediate results in 2011.
6. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – The Blue Raiders came into the 2010 season as the consensus pick to win the Sun Belt, as they returned one of the top players in the conference in quarterback Dwight Dasher. Unfortunately for the Blue Raiders, Dasher was suspended for the first four games and by the time they got things going it was too late. This year they lose Dasher and return just 10 starters total, including only three on the defensive side. I think all that will add up to another tough season for head coach Rick Stockstill.
7. Florida Atlantic Owls – Head coach Howard Schnellenberger has a reputation for getting the best out of his players, but things have not been going good for the Owls over the last two seasons. After rolling off back-to-back winning seasons in 2007 and 2008, the Owls have won just nine games the last two years and are coming off a 4-8 finish in 2010. Schnellenberger will be put to the test in 2011, as Florida Atlantic loses their starting quarterback, top three receivers, and five of their top six tacklers. The one positive the Owls have heading into this season is they return all five starters on the offensive line, which should allow them to finish just ahead of Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette.
8. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – While many teams would consider a 2-10 season a disappointment, the Hilltoppers finished 2-6 in the Sun Belt, giving them their first two wins inside the conference since joining back in 2008. With 15 starters back and this being the second year under head coach Willie Taggart, I believe Western Kentucky is primed to escape the basement of the Sun Belt. The key will be beating Louisiana-Lafayette at home on Oct. 22, as their other three home games come against FIU, Troy, and Arkansas State.
9. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns – The Ragin’ Cajuns went just 3-9 in 2010 after going 6-6 in each of the two previous years. They will head into 2011 with a new head coach, as Mark Hudspeth takes over for Ricky Bustle. It appears pretty clear that Louisiana is in rebuilding mode, as they lose 24 lettermen from last year and have just 13 starters back. If the Ragin’ Cajuns are going to avoid last place in the Sun Belt, they will likely have to win both home games against Florida Atlantic and North Texas, plus win on the road at Western Kentucky.
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