AL East:

Boston Red Sox (+325) – It’s World Series or bust this year for the Red Sox. They are my pick to get to the World Series from the American League with the additions they made in the offseason, bringing in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez most notably.

New York Yankees (+700) – New York still has the talent to make a World Series run, but their rotation is shaky after CC Sabathia. They still don’t know who their fourth and fifth starters are going to be, or whether AJ Burnett can return to form.

Tampa Bay Rays (+3000) – Losing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza and Rafael Soriano will have the Rays falling back to the middle of the pack in 2011.

Toronto Blue Jays (+7000) – There are boppers up and down this lineup as the Blue Jays led the league in home runs (257) last year. But their rotation is not in good shape after their best starter in Shaun Marcum was dealt in the offseason.

Baltimore Orioles (+8000) – The Orioles are getting closer and went 34-23 once Buck Showalter took over as manager. They should be able to score with just about anyone in the league offensively, but their rotation is once again going to be their downfall as so many young prospects just haven’t been able to live up to expectations.

AL Central:

Detroit Tigers (+3300) – The Tigers are my pick to win the AL Central, thus they are showing decent value here to win the World Series. With a perennial Cy Young candidate in Justin Verlander and an AL MVP candidate in Miguel Cabrera along with the addition of Victor Martinez, Detroit should be a force this year.

Chicago White Sox (+2500) – The White Sox have few weaknesses coming into this season. They have a deep rotation and a pretty solid lineup from top to bottom, especially with the addition of Adam Dunn.

Minnesota Twins (+2000) - You can never count Minnesota out, but the Twins have a lot of questions coming into 2011. Joe Nathan comes back from Tommy John surgery, and Justin Morneau is still feeling effects from a concussion that kept him out over the last couple months of 2010.

Kansas City Royals (+15000) – While the Royals are considered by many to have the best farm system in the Majors, that’s not going to win a title for them this season let alone have them competing for the AL Central crown. The loss of Zach Greinke really hurts this rotation.

Cleveland Indians (+15000) – Two of their best players, Asdrubal Cabrera and Grady Sizemore, cannot seem to stay healthy. There isn’t much talent in this lineup aside from these two, and their rotation is ugly past Fausto Carmona.

AL West:

Texas Rangers (+2000) – Even though they lose Cliff Lee, the Texas Rangers have CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis at the top of their rotation who are each vastly underrated. They are hoping Brandon Webb can return to the form that won him the 2006 Cy Young award and also has him finishing second in voting the next two seasons. This lineup remains one of the best in the league.

Oakland Athletics (+3300) – Oakland managed a .500 record last season and should build on that with four starters back from a rotation that posted a major league-best 3.47 ERA last year. Rich Harden returns to his former team to make their rotation even stronger, and the additions of Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus should have the A’s scoring more runs this year.

Los Angeles Angels (+3000) – Kendry Morales returns from a fluke injury that cost him most of last season, and Vernon Wells comes over from Toronto. Having Dan Haren for a full season along with Jered Weaver at the top of their rotation will perhaps have the Angels rebounding from a sub-.500 campaign.

Seattle Mariners (+10000) – Seattle cannot compete with the other three teams in the AL West. All the Mariners have going for them is 2010 AL Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez, but he can’t help out the rest of the rotations nor can he score runs for this lackluster offense.

NL East:

Philadelphia Phillies (+165) – The Phillies are my pick to win the World Series, thus I certainly recommend wagering on them to take down the title in 2011. Cliff Lee joins a rotation that includes Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. Once they win the World Series this season, this starting staff will go down as perhaps the best in MLB history.

Atlanta Braves (+2200) – Atlanta did a great job making the postseason in manager Bobby Cox’s final season. Fredi Gonzalez brings new life to a ball club that is loaded with young talent, and one that boasts one of the best rotations in baseball with the likes of Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens.

Florida Marlins (+4000) – While the Marlins continue spending much less money than their competition, they remain competitive. Having Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco at the top of their rotation and a bunch of young talent throughout their lineup they could certainly surprise some folks in 2011.

New York Mets (+6000) – Not having Johan Santana for most of the season gives the Mets no chance of making the postseason. Enough said.

Washington Nationals (+9000) – The Nationals are building for the future and are set up to be a competitive club soon, but that won’t happen in 2011. Losing Adam Dunn really hurts this offense, and having Livan Hernandez as your Ace just shows how poor this rotation is going to be.

NL Central:

Milwaukee Brewers (+2200) – The Brewers have been missing pitching for years. They now have one of the best 1-2-3 punches in the game with Yovani Gallardo, Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Throw in an offense that has Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder at the 3-4 spots, and the Brewers have the makings of a contending ball club in 2011.

St. Louis Cardinals (+2200) – The loss of Adam Wainwright for the season is a punch to the gut of Cardinals fans. St. Louis somehow doesn’t get as much run production as they should despite having Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday hitting next to each other.

Chicago Cubs (+4000) – Chicago could be a sleeper this season. Carlos Pena will add power to a lineup that was clearly lacking it, and Matt Garza adds life to a rotation that could potentially be solid as long as Carlos Zambrano returns to form. Aramis Ramirez will be the wild card and really needs to rediscover his stroke to lead this offense.

Cincinnati Reds (+2300) – The Reds aren’t going to catch anyone sleeping any more. They will have a target on their backs this season, and they just don’t have the guns to defend their 2010 division title. Joey Votto is a beast, but this rotation is one of the worst in baseball.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+20000) – The Pirates are the biggest long shot to win the World Series. With 18 consecutive losing seasons to date, they own the longest such skid in North American professional sports. Chalk up No. 19 in a row in 2011.

Houston Astros (+10000) – The Astros finished with one of the worst offenses in baseball last season. All they did this offseason was add Bill Hall and Clint Barmes, and with Carlos Lee being a year older, Houston is going to struggle to score runs again in 2011.

NL West:

San Francisco Giants (+1300) – Pretty good value here with the defending world champs as a $100 wager would get you $1300 if San Francisco were to repeat. They aren’t going to catch anyone off guard this season, but with a rotation is solid from Tim Lincecum on down, they certainly have a chance to go back-to-back.

Colorado Rockies (+2500) – Colorado is set up to be a force for many years with a young rotation that features a solid Top 3 in Jimenez, De La Rosa and Chacin, and an offense built around Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki.

San Diego Padres (+5500) – Losing Adrian Gonzalez from an already stagnant offense is going to really hurt the Padres in 2011. The additions of Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson and Brad Hawpe should help, but I don’t think those three can combined to replace what he brought to the table.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+3000) – The Dodgers rotation is sneaky good from top to bottom with Kershaw, Billingsley, Lilly, Kuroda and Garland. New manager Don Mattingly injects some life into this organization, but unfortunately he can’t play in a lineup that is one of the worst in baseball. The Dodgers will struggle to score runs again in 2011.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+10000) – Arizona finished third in the NL in home runs (180) in 2010, but they hit just .250 as a team. With Mark Reynolds gone, they should improve on their average, but they will lose a lot of run production. Daniel Hudson is a promising young starter, but there is little to be desired after him as the Diamondbacks traded away Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson last year. Oh yeah, their bullpen finished with the third-worst ERA (5.74) in MLB history last year. They think J.J. Putz will help shore it up, but he’s far past his prime.

Archived Season Previews:

• 2010
• 2009

Originially posted on BetFirms

To get a better idea of how the division will shape up in 2011, here is a look at where we have all six teams finishing, plus their odds to win. Find out where we have all 30 teams finishing in our MLB predictions article.

1. Milwaukee Brewers (+250)
We believe the Brewers will continue to the streak of a new team winning the division, as they appear to finally have the pitching to go with a solid offense led by sluggers Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Milwaukee went out and solidified their rotation with the additions of Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum, which should give the Brewers a great 1-3 punch with Yovani Gallardo.

2. St Louis Cardinals (+120)
Just because we picked the Cardinals to finish second, doesn’t mean we don’t think they have a shot at winning the division. St Louis has the pitching to match Milwaukee with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia, and should have a very solid top of the order with newly acquired Ryan Theriot and Lance Berkman hitting ahead of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

3. Chicago Cubs (+500)
The Cubs have disappointed each of the last two seasons, but we think this is a team to keep your eye on. Chicago finished 2010 24-13 under new head coach Mike Quade, and made a couple of nice additions this offseason in first baseman Carlos Pena, starting pitcher Matt Garza, and setup man Kerry Wood.

4. Cincinnati Reds (+350)
It wasn’t easy picking the 2010 winners this low in our predictions, but this is a team that really didn’t too much to improve from last season. The offense is going to be one of the best again this season behind Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, but we simply aren’t sold on their starting rotation. A lot will have to right for the Reds to repeat in 2011.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (+10000)
Picking the Pirates to finish out of the basement in the Central might be even more of a surprise, but we have a feeling the Astros will make it hard for them to finish in last for a fifth consecutive season. We aren’t calling for a winning season by any means, but there is a lot of young talent that should continue to get better and help this team improve on last year’s record.

6. Houston Astros (+3500)
As good as the Astros were to finish the 2010 season, we aren’t sold on them making a run in 2011. Houston has a solid rotation behind Brett Myers, Wany Rodriguez, and J.A. Happ, but also have an offense that is going to struggle to produce runs. Carlos Lee isn’t the player he once was, leaving a huge a lack of power in this lineup.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Projected Lineup

Geovany Soto (Catcher) – Soto has the potential to be one of the top hitting catchers in the game. Soto bounced back from a  miserable 2009 season to hit .280 with a career high .890 OPS. The problem for Soto has been staying healthy. After playing 141 games as a rookie, he hasn’t played in more than 105 over the last two seasons.

Carlos Pena (First Base) – The Cubs are hoping they will get the Pena that hit .282, blasted 45 home runs, drove in 121 runs, and had an OPS of 1.038 in 2007, and not the Pena who hit .196 with 28 home runs, 84 RBIs, and and OPS of .732 last season. Even if the Cubs get a closer version to the 2007 season, they better get use to this guy striking out a lot. Pena has struck out an average of 157 times over the last four seasons.

Blake DeWitt (Second Base) – This appears to be the weakest spot in the lineup for the Cubs. DeWitt has a lifetime average of .259, and hit just .250 in 53 games for the Cubs after coming over mid-season in a trade. DeWitt also provides little power, and don’t be surprised if ends up splitting a lot of time with Jeff Baker.

Starlin Castro (Shortstop) -  One of the few bright spots for the Cubs in 2010. Castro led the team with a .300 batting average and was also tops on the team with .347 OBP. Castro will turn 21 in March, and should be a bright spot for years to come in this organization.

Aramis Ramirez (Third Base) -If the Cubs are going to contend in 2011, they are going to need a big season out of Ramirez, and most importantly they need him to stay healthy. Ramirez has missed significant time in each of the past two seasons, but when healthy he can carry the offense. If he can put together a full season, he has the ability to hit .300 with 30+ home runs and  100+ RBIs.

Alfonso Soriano (Left Field) -  Soriano has been a huge disappointment for the Cubs since joining the club in 2007. His offensive numbers continue to decline, and he is no longer a threat on the bases. In 2010 Soriano hit  just .258 with 24 home runs and 79 RBIs. Soriano does have a strong OPS of .818, but is about as streaky as they come at the plate.

Marlon Byrd (Center Field) – Byrd won over the fans in Chicago with not only his production, but the way he plays the game. Byrd was the Cubs only All-Star last season. While Byrd hit a respectable .293, his home run total dropped from 20 in 2009 to 12, and his RBI total went from 89 in 2009 to 66. Byrd is now 33 and is more likely to see his numbers decline than improve.

Tyler Colvin (Right Field) – Colvin comes in off a solid rookie season where he hit 20 home runs and drove in 56 runs. It is looking more and more likely that Colvin will take over the right field job from Kosuke Fukudome. Colvin’s OPS of .816 at the age of 24, have us thinking this kid is going to only get better over the next few years. One concern for Colvin is he struck out 100 times in 358 at bats.

Projected Rotation

Carlos Zambrano (RHP) – It was a roller coaster season for Zambrano in 2010, which at one point had the ace pitching out of the bullpen. Zambrano however finished the season going 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA in his final 11 starts. Depending on which Zambrano they get in 2011, will determine just how good this rotation is.

Ryan Dempster (RHP) – Dempster went a respectable 15-12 with a 3.58 ERA on a pretty bad team last season. Dempster had a WHIP of 1.32, and was seventh in the NL with 208 strike outs. Dempster is getting up there in age, so don’t be surprised to see his number drop off a little in 2011.

Matt Garza (RHP) – The Cubs are hoping that Garza will help solidify their rotation. In 2010 Garza went 15-10 with 3.91 ERA, but could be headed for a breakout season. Garza makes the move from the AL to the NL, where he will face weaker offenses without the DH in play. Garza hasn’t finished with a WHIP worse than 1.26 over the last three seasons, and has been reliable with 200+ innings in each of the past two seasons.

Carlos Silva (RHP) – Silva got off to an incredible 8-0 start last season, but went just 2-6 down the stretch for 10-6 record with a 4.22 ERA.  Silva had to battle injuries in the second half of the season, and it’s hard telling what to expect from him in 2011. If he pitches like he did at the end of last season, he likely won’t be in the rotation for long.

Randy Wells (RHP) – Here is another guy who really needs a strong start to keep his job. Wells really fell off in his second full season as a starter. Wells ERA jumped from 3.05 in 2009 to 4.26, and his WHIP went from a solid 1.28 to 1.40 in 2010. If Wells struggles in spring training, Andrew Cashner could end up stealing his spot.

Season Predictions

It just seems like the Cubs have more question marks than anything heading into the 2011 season. A lot has to go right for this team to even have a chance at winning the NL Central. Still it’s hard to overlook the success Quade had to finish the year, and maybe the Cubs surprise, but our money is on the Cubs once again being those lovable losers.

2011 Projection: 3rd Place NL Central

Cubs Odds for 2011 (listed at Bodog):

• World Series:  35/1
• NL Pennant:  16/1
• NL Central:  9/2
• Over/Under Regular Season Wins:  81.5

Want more previews of the Chicago Cubs?  Here is what we have found:

• Sox #1 Fan

Archived Season Previews:

• 2010
• 2009
• 2008

Individual MLB Team Previews:

Originially posted on BetFirms

Pitching:

The Cubs’ starting staff was not the problem last year, posting a 3.71 ERA with 94 quality starts, ranking second in the majors in the latter category. But Carlos Zambrano was a problem as he spent two stints on the DL, and won just 9 games. Zambrano did manage a 9-7 record with a 3.77 ERA, but his time on the injury list really hurt Chicago’s chances of being competitive in the NL Central. Ted Lilly was superb last year with a 12-9 record and 3.10 ERA, though he needed arthroscopic surgery in November and will need to return to form. Ryan Dempster wasn’t what he was in 2008, but he still went 11-9 with a 3.65 ERA for a respectable 2009 campaign. Randy Wells was a pleasant surprise, going 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA last season. The Cubs cannot expect him to keep up those numbers, but anything close would certainly be welcomed. Tom Gorzellany is in line to get the No. 5 spot in the rotation, though he has been a disappointment the last 2 years after going 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA in 2007 with Pittsburgh. Carlos Marmol enters the season as the closer. Marmol remains a strikeout machine, though his rise in walks last season is a major concern. Marmol averaged 7.91 BB/9 innings last year, but he certainly has the “stuff” to be an everyday closer. Angel Guzman is the Cubs’ primary setup man this season after going 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA last year. John Grabow can also handle these duties after coming over via trade from Pittsburgh last season, going 3-0 with a 3.36 ERA. Chicago has the makings of one of the best staffs in the majors provided everyone stays healthy.

Hitting:

Geovany Soto lost 50 pounds in the offseason, mainly because the Cubs’ catcher plummeted last season after a brilliant 2008. In ‘08 Soto hit .285 with 23 HR’s and 86 RBI’s, but in ‘09 he came back with a .218 average and just 11 HR’s and 47 RBI’s. 1B Derek Lee single-handedly carried this team in the second half last year, hitting .306 with 35 HR’s and 111 RBI’s in 2009. He is the one steady player in this line-up that brings it every day and avoids injury. Mike Fontenot enters the spring as the Cubs’ starting 2B, but after hitting .305 in 2008 he also suffered in ‘09, hitting just .236. SS Ryan Theriot is a steady producer, hitting between .267 and .307 while scoring at least 80 Runs and stealing at least 21 bases for 3 straight seasons. It is most important for 3B Aramis Ramirez to stay healthy, because this is a completely different team when he is in the line-up. He missed nearly 2 months of action last season due to a dislocated left shoulder. Ramirez hit .310 with 26 HR’s and 101 RBI’s in 2007 and .289 with 27 HR’s and 111 RBI’s in 2008. The Cubs desperately need LFAlfonso Soriano to return to his 2007 form after receiving season-ending surgery on his knee at the end of last year. Soriano hit .299 with 33 HR’s, 97 Runs scored and 19 SB’s in ‘07. He was good in ‘08 while hitting .280 with 29 HR’s and 75 RBI’s, but his production took a big hit in ‘09 when he hit just .241 with 20 HR’s and 55 RBI’s. Soriano and Ramirez are the wild cards on this team because both are fully capable of putting up huge numbers when healthy. The CF job goes to Marlon Byrd who was a nice addition in the offseason after coming over from Texas. He hit at least .283 in his last 3 seasons with the Rangers, and smacked 20 HR’s with 89 RBI’s in 2009. Kosuke Fukudome has been a big disappointment since his first few months in a Cubs’ uniform in 2008. He’ll get the RF job and Chicago is certainly hoping he can live up to his potential this season.

Jack’s Prediction: 2nd in the NL Central and OVER 83.5 Wins – Hard to see the Cubs overtaking the Cardinals in the NL Central this season, but they certainly have the talent to do it. Still, there are so many question marks on this team. When healthy, the Cubs can beat anyone, but after injuries to Zambrano, Ramirez and Soriano there is a lot up in the air. Byrd was a nice addition in the outfield, and the Cubs still have one of the best pitching staffs in the game, but they just don’t stack up with what the Cardinals have going on in St. Louis. There is some nice value here with the OVER 83.5 wins as Chicago has finished with at least 83 wins for three straight seasons, and have won the NL Central two of the past three years. So I’ll take the OVER and predict them to finish second in the NL Central, possibly earning at Wild Card bid.

Archived Season Previews:

• 2010
• 2009
• 2008

Individual MLB Team Previews:

Originially posted on BetFirms

Offense:

The big story heading into last season was the addition of outfielder Kosuke Fukudome from Japan, and while Fukudome quickly won the crowd over, his play on the field got worse as the season wore on. The addition of Bradley means Fukudome’s role could be splitting time in centerfield with Reed Johnson, who really had a good season after coming over from Toronto. Kosuke’s play wasn’t the best at times, but his impact of patience at the plate seemed to trickle throughout the Cubs lineup, as the once free swinging Cubbies became patient and worked opposing pitchers by making them throw more pitches. Alfonso Soriano will hold down left field to complete the outfield, and while his overall numbers were good, a little more consistency from him would really help this team. The infield remains the same at all positions expect for second base, where free agent Aaron Miles will get first shot at the starting job. The Cubs has the 2nd best batting average in the NL and were 5th in homeruns, and I think the addition of Bradley could bolster both the categories. The Cubs wouldn’t mind seeing a few more HR’s from its 3 and 4 hitters, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, as the two combined for just  47 a year ago, also don’t be surprised if catcher Geovany Soto doesn’t improve off his impressive rookie season, where he hit .285 with 23 HRs and 86 RBIs.  

Pitching:

While the offense looks good, the Cubs pitching staff is loaded with talent, and it will likely be the backbone to another run at the NL Central title. The addition of Rich Harden by trade during the middle of last season was huge for this team, and if they can keep him healthy he has all the tools to win 18 to 20 games. Carlos Zambrano battled shoulder problems last season and still managed to go 14-6 and throw a no hitter, so look for Big Z to come out firing in 2009. The Cubs got the surprise of the season when Ryan Dempster made the move from closer to starter and wound up finishing the season going 17-6. The Cubs No.4 starter Ted Lilly, matched Dempster with 17 wins to lead the team. Jason Marquis is no longer a Cub, and it looks like Sean Marshall will be the front runner to take over the 5th and final spot in the rotation. The Cubs got a pleasant surprise with Kerry Wood stepping into the closers role and grabbing 34 saves, but he is now a Cleveland Indian, so that means Kevin Gregg will likely step up into the closers role with Carlos Marmol set to be the main set up man. 

Prediction: 1st in NL Central

The Cubs could run away with this division early, and if they improve on their record of 2008, which many think they will, this team is going to have no problem making the postseason for a 3rd straight year. Winning the NL Central might not be enough, however, as fans are looking for results and an end to the World Series drought.

Archived Season Previews:

• 2010
• 2008

Individual MLB Team Previews:

Originially posted on BetFirms