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Colts Jaguars Spread

Jack Jones — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:15:22 +0000

The Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Indianapolis Colts Sunday in Week 17 Sunday at 1:00 EST. While both teams nothing to play for in terms of the playoffs, there is something very important still riding on it. In fact, there are some Colts fans who are cheering for the Jaguars heading into this one. If Indianapolis loses this game or finishes tied with the St. Louis Rams or Minnesota Vikings for the most losses, they would earn the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have installed a line of Jacksonville -3.5 over Indianapolis and a total set of 37.5 points.

Jacksonville

The Jaguars will be looking to cap off a rare season sweep of the Colts Sunday. Jacksonville (4-11, 3-4 home) beat Indianapolis in their first meeting 17-3 in their most complete performance of the season. They held the Colts to just 212 total yards, and Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 114 yards to carry the offense.

Jacksonville will be looking to get Jones-Drew the NFL’s season rushing title Sunday. He leads the league with 1,437 rushing yards, which is 128 ahead of Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy. Jones-Drew has accounted for 46.5 percent of Jacksonville’s offense this season, which leads the NFL as well.

The Jaguars would love to get quarterback Blaine Gabbert on track. The rookie has struggled all season, completing just 50.5 percent of his passes for 2,122 yards with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Jacksonville ranks last in the league in passing offense at 140.5 yards per game, and Gabbert has the NFL’s worst passer rating (64.3).

This will be the final game for owners Wayne and Delores Weaver, who have agreed to sell the team to Shahid Kahn for $760 million. The Weaver’s helped bring the franchise to Jacksonville back in 1995 and they will always be remembered in the city.

Indianapolis

The Colts have won back-to-back games to put getting the No. 1 pick in jeopardy. After topping the Tennessee Titans to get their first win of the season in Week 15, the Colts went on to beat the Houston Texans 19-16 at home last week. They would still get the No. 1 pick with a loss or a Rams victory this Sunday.

Indianapolis (2-13, 0-7 away) will have to make some key decisions this offseason no matter what happens in this game. The big one is Peyton Manning, who turns 36 in march and has had to sit out the entire season with a neck injury. Owner Jim Irsay has stated that Manning will be their starting quarterback next year as long as he’s healthy.

Veteran players Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis and Jeff Saturday have been huge pieces throughout this amazing run by the Colts over the past decade. But each is on the final year of their contract, and there’s a chance that none of these three will be back next year.

Wayne caught the game-winning 1-yard touchdown pass with 19 seconds to beat the Texans last week. He needs 113 yards for his eight straight 1,000-yard season. Throwing to him once again will be Dan Orlovsky, who is completing 62.1 percent of his passes for 937 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. He has been the biggest reason for their turnaround these last two weeks.

Betting Trends

The Colts are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.

The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite overall, but just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Be sure to get your NFL advice from expert handicapper Jack Jones in Week 17.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Texans Colts Line

Steve Janus — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 23:07:42 +0000

This Thursday the Houston Texans will go on the road to face the Indianapolis Colts in week 15 of the NFL. Coming into the season many believed this AFC South showdown would possibly decide who won the division. That simply isn’t the case. Houston has already locked up the division, despite getting upset at Carolina last week. The Colts stunned the Titans 27-13 for their first win of the season. Houston opened up the season with a 34=7 win at home over the Colts, but have never won a game at Indianapolis (0-9). They figure to have a pretty good shot at ending the trend this week.

Taking a look at the week 16 NFL spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Texans favored by 5.5-points over the Colts with the total set at 40 points.

Houston Texans:

The Texans loss to the Panthers last week might end up costing them a first round bye in the playoffs. Houston, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England all came into the week at 10-3, but only the Patriots were able to come away with a win. The Texans went from being the No. 1 seed to the No. 3 seed. Either way they are going to host a playoff game, and the most important thing for this team is making sure they don’t lose any more key players to injury.

In their last game against the Panthers, rookie quarterback T.J. Yates completed 19 of 30 attempts for 212 yards, but finished the game with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Overall is just wasn’t a good game for the Yates, but he will have a good opportunity to bounce back against the Colts. Indianapolis ranks 24th against the pass, allowing 246.4 ypg. One thing that could keep Yates from having a huge game, is the fact that star wide out Andre Johnson isn’t expected to play.

Arian Foster provided nearly all the offense for the Texans in the loss. Foster not only rushed for a team-high 109 yards, he led the the team with five catches for 58 yards. He provided the Texans with their only touchdown on a 1-yard run. Foster and backup Ben Tate both figure to be in for a huge game against the Colts. Indianapolis is 28th in the league against the run, giving up 138.7 ypg. The first time these two teams played the Texans were without Foster, and still rushed for 167 yards behind a 116 yards from Tate.

Indianapolis Colts:

The Colts 27-13 win over the Titans might not seem all that important to the average fan, but no player wants to be apart of a team that doesn’t win a single game. Indianapolis has fought all season long to get that one win, and now you have to wonder how excited they are going to be to come out and face a playoff team this week.

Over the years it has been all about the passing game with Peyton Manning and company, but it was the ground game that got the Colts their first win of the season. Donald Brown rushed for a career-high 161 yards, that was capped off by a 80-yard touchdown that put the Colts up for good in the 4th quarter. Indianapolis finished with 206 yards on the ground, averaging 6.0 yards per carry.

Dan Orlovsky went an efficient 11 for 17 for 82 yards, including a 18-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne. Not only did the Colts end their losing streak, It was Orlovsky’s first career win as a starter. He was a dismal 0-9 coming into the game.

The Texans didn’t play great defensively last week, but they still held the Panthers to 316 yards of total offense. They come into the game ranked 2nd against the pass (181.1 ypg) and 5th against the run (96.8 ypg). The first time they faced the Colts they held Indianapolis to 236 total yards. The Colts ground game managed just 64 yards in that game. Houston could be without defensive coordinator Wade Philips, but I don’t know that it will matter all that much.

Betting Trends:

Houston is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Titans Colts Line

Steve Janus — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 21:07:47 +0000

The Tennessee Titans will go on the road to face the Indianapolis Colts in a must win game if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Titans dropped to 7-6 with a heartbreaking 22-17 loss at home to New Orleans on Sunday. They are now tied with Oakland and Cincinnati, and are a full game back of the Jets for the final Wild Card spot. The Colts fell 10-24 at Baltimore in week 14, leaving them just three games to avoid going 0-16. The Titans beat the Colts 27-10 at home back in week 8.

Taking a look at the week 15 NFL lines, oddsmakers currently have the Titans favored by 6.5-points over the Colts with the total set at 41 points.

Tennessee Titans:

Despite losing starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck early in the second quarter, the Titans had their chance to pull off a stunning upset late in the game. Rookie quarterback Jake Locker hit Nate Washington on a 40-yard touchdown pass to make it 17-22 with just under 6 minutes to play. Locker would march the Titans to the New Orleans 5-yard line with just seconds remaining, but threw an incomplete pass and was sacked to end the game.

Its uncertain whether or not Hasselbeck will be able to return to action this week. The Titans have said Hasselbeck will play if he capable of taking the field, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he missed at least this game. I have been impressed with what Locker has done in limited action. He completed just 13 of 29 attempts, but threw for 282 yards. Either way the Titans should be able to move the ball against the Colts 21st ranked pass defense.

The injury to Hasselbeck and how close this game ended up being took a lot of attention off another dismal performance from running back Chris Johnson. After rushing for 243 yards and two touchdowns in his previous two games, Johnson was held to just 23 yards on 11 attempts. At this point you just don’t know what you are going to get from Johnson. He had just 34 yards on 14 attempts in the first meeting against the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts:

If the Colts don’t find a way to beat the Titans on Sunday, that will leave them with a home game against Houston and a road game at Jacksonville to avoid matching the Lions’ 0-16 finish from 2008. While the Colts keep losing, they have covered the spread in each of their last two games. However, they were extremely lucky to beat the 16-point spread against the Ravens, as they scored a touchdown on the very last play of the game to make it 10-24.

Offensively the Colts could do very little against the Ravens defense. New starting quarterback Dan Orlovsky went just 17 of 37 for 136 yards, while Dominic Brown and Joseph Addai combined for only 44 yards on 11 carries. They come in averaging just 14 ppg, but have been held to 10 points or less in five of their last seven.

While the Titans played a great defensive game last week against the Saints, they had their struggles keeping the Colts offense in check the first time around. Curtis Painter threw for 250 yards and the Colts ground game piled on a season-high 158 yards on 26 attempts. However, 79 of those rushing yards came from Painter scrambling from the the pocket.

Betting Trends:

Tennessee is 10-1 ATS vs. terrible ball control teams, <28 minutes TOP, <=16 FD’s per game after 8+ games since 1992.

Indianapolis is 0-6 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Colts Ravens Odds

Jack Jones — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 22:42:24 +0000

The Baltimore Ravens host the Indianapolis Colts Sunday in Week 14 NFL action. These teams have squared off five times in the last four years, including twice in the playoffs. Peyton Manning has had Baltimore’s number, winning eight straight meetings. That includes a 20-3 home victory in the playoffs during the 2009-10 season in their most recent meeting. There will be no Manning this time around, thus the Ravens are a heavy favorite.

Odds makers in Las Vegas have installed a line of Baltimore -16.5 over Indianapolis with a total set of 41 points.

Baltimore

The Ravens have been playing fabulous football at home all season. Baltimore (9-3, 6-0 home) looks to remain unbeaten on home soil when they welcome the winless Colts to their franchise’s former home town. This team has been prone to letdowns in 2011, losing to the likes of Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle. However, all three of those losses came on the road. The Ravens were able to solve their road woes last week with a 24-10 victory at Cleveland.

The final score of their game against the Browns doesn’t really show how lopsided this game really was. Baltimore outgained Cleveland 448-223 for the game, including a season-high 290 rushing yards. Ray Rice rushed for a career-high 204 yards on 27 carries with a touchdown. Their defense was dominant despite not having middle linebacker Ray Lewis for a second straight game. They held the Browns to just 59 rushing yards on 17 carries.

Baltimore ranks 15th in the NFL in total offense (345.0 yards/game) and 3rd in total defense (287.3 yards/game). Indy is not a good running team, and they’ll have a very tough time moving the ball against the league’s second-ranked run defense (88.8 yards/game). Lewis will likely miss a third straight game with a toe injury, but he’ll certainly be coaching from the sidelines. Joe Flacco is completing 55.3 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Rice ranks 7th in the NFL in rushing with 926 yards and nine scores. He also has a team-high 56 receptions for 547 yards and two touchdowns.

Indianapolis

The Colts are certainly headed towards getting the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft next April. Indianapolis (0-12, 0-6 away) is running out of chances to avoid a winless season. They play three teams with winning records the next three weeks before closing out their campaign with a road game at Jacksonville. Indy is coming off a 31-24 loss at New England, though that final score is a bit misleading considering this one was a blowout most of the way.

The Patriots jumped out to a 31-3 lead by the end of the third quarter before a frantic rally by the Colts. Indianapolis scored 21 unanswered points in the final period, but saw their chances of completing an improbable comeback put to a halt. Deion Branch recovered an onside kick with 36 seconds to go to preserve the victory for New England. Making the first NFL start of his career, quarterback Dan Orlovsky played well. He completed 30 of 37 passes for 353 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Pierre Garcon continued his surprising season, catching nine balls for 150 yards and two scores.

Indy comes in ranked 29th in the league in total offense (293.1 yards/game) and 28th in total defense (387.1 yards/game). Had this team turned to Orlovsky sooner, they may have had a win under their belts already. He is completing 75.9 percent of his passes for 475 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The Colts don’t have a single running back with more than 400 yards rushing, which is a big reason for their offensive woes. Garcon has been the one bright spot, leading the team in receptions (55), receiving yards (805), and touchdowns (6).

Betting Trends

The Colts are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater, but just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

The Ravens are 49-23-2 ATS in their last 74 games as a home favorite, but only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Ravens.

Put your trust in world-renown handicapper Jack Jones to deliver profits through pro football wagering by signing up for a premium package today.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Colts Patriots Spread

Jack Jones — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 22:33:01 +0000

When the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts get together, it’s usually one of the most anticipated games of the year. That’s certainly not the case this season as the Patriots are a massive favorite to beat the Colts Sunday. Indianapolis remains without Pro Bowl quarterback Peyton Manning, taking away the excitement heading into this game. Despite not playing in the same division, the Colts and Patriots have squared off at least once per year dating back to 2003. That’s because both teams have been so successful over the last decade. New England won the most recent meeting 31-28 on November 21st last year despite giving up 467 total yards, including 396 passing and four touchdowns from Manning.

According to the latest NFL odds, New England is a 20-point favorite over Indianapolis with a total set of 47.5 points.

New England

The Patriots appear to be the strongest team in the AFC once again this season. New England (8-3, 4-1 home) leads the AFC East division by two games, but actually three considering they swept the season series with second-place New York. They are in a four-way tie for the best record in the AFC with the likes of Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston as well. The Patriots have won three straight in blowout fashion, outscoring their last three opponents a combined 109-39.

New England is coming off a 38-20 road victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. Tom Brady was marvelous, completing 24 of 34 passes for 361 yards and three touchdowns. Wes Welker and Deion Branch each topped the 100-yard mark, combining for 14 receptions for 240 yards and two scores, both by Welker. BenJarvis Green-Ellis carried the load on the ground, rushing for 44 yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles did manage 466 total yards, but a lot of that was in garbage time after trailing 31-13 early in the third quarter.

The Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense (429.5 yards/game) and last in total defense (409.9 yards/game). Despite ranking so poorly on defense, they still only give up a respectable 20.3 points/game. If Aaron Rodgers wasn’t in the league, Brady would be the favorite to win the MVP for a second straight year. He is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 3,627 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Welker is the NFL’s leading receiver with 82 grabs for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski has emerged as one of the game’s top tight ends, catching 60 balls for 864 yards and 11 scores.

Indianapolis

The Colts are off to their worst start since 1998. They opened 0-10 in Manning’s rookie season that year, but he was able to notch his first win in Week 12. Indianapolis (0-11, 0-6 away) wasn’t able to accomplish that same feat last week, falling yet again to the Carolina Panthers by a final of 27-19. This team is running out of winnable games, though they will get a rematch with Jacksonville at season’s end. Their other four opponents have a combined 30-14 record.

Indy had their chances against Carolina, but once again quarterback Curtis Painter could not deliver. He went 15 of 29 passing for 226 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Both of those picks came in the closing minutes as the Colts twice had a chance to send the game to overtime. They had the ball inside the Carolina 5 with about a minute to go, but Austin Collie couldn’t secure a pass from Painter, and it was tipped into the hands of Sherrod Martin to seal the victory for the Panthers. Reggie Wayne finally broke out, catching five balls for 122 yards including a spectacular 56-yard touchdown.

The Colts are a dreadful 30th in the NFL in total offense (280.0 yards/game). Their stop unit hasn’t been much better, ranking 29th in the league in total defense (389.3 yards/game). Painter has had plenty of chances to earn the starting quarterback job, but he’s simply not getting it done. The Colts have elected to start Dan Orlovsky against the Patriots. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 122 yards on the season. Also, defensive coordinator Larry Coyer has been fired. Though these moves may have been a few weeks too late, management had to do something to try to avoid a winless season.

Betting Trends

The Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater, but 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record, but only 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Panthers Colts Odds

Jack Jones — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 03:50:56 +0000

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off their bye week with perhaps their best chance to get that elusive first win. They’ll host the Carolina Panthers, who finished with the worst record in the league last year, and they haven’t been much better this season. Carolina has won three of four all-time meetings, but they have not beaten the Colts since 2003. Indianapolis took the last meeting 31-7 on the road in 2007.

Odds makers are giving the road team a slight edge, installing a line of Carolina -3.5 over Indianapolis and a total set of 44.5 points.

Carolina

The Panthers are one team I can say with confidence that is better than their record. Carolina (2-8, 0-4 away) has had a season filled with near misses. Their offense has been electric, but their defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone. They come into this game with Indy riding a three-game losing streak. They had their chances to put the Detroit Lions away last week, but squandered yet another lead in a 49-35 setback.

Carolina held a 24-7 lead early in the second quarter, and they went into halftime with a 27-14 advantage over the Lions. It was all Detroit from there as they opened the second half with 21 unanswered points, and they went on to outscore the Panthers 35-8 after intermission. Cam Newton threw for 280 yards and a touchdown, but he gave the game away by throwing four interceptions. The Panthers wasted yet another 400-plus yard output offensively.

This team has had no problem moving the football, ranking 5th in the league in total offense (400.9 yards/game). Their problems have come from committing turnovers, brutal red zone offense, and a defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in yards allowed (374.8 yards/game). Newton is completing 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,885 yards with 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while also ranking second on the team in rushing (411 yards, nine TD). There’s no question he’s a future superstar, but he needs to take care of the football. Steve Smith is helping him out, catching 56 balls for 992 yards and five scores.

Indianapolis

You could argue that Peyton Manning should win the MVP award this season despite not taking a single snap. There’s certainly no denying the importance of Manning to this team after the way the Colts have opened the season. Indianapolis (0-10, 0-5 home) has gotten off to their worst start since 1997, which was Manning’s rookie year. They appear poised to get the No. 1 draft pick by season’s end. Injuries and lack of talent at quarterback have really cost this team.

The Colts had a decent chance to get their first win before their bye week when the Jacksonville Jaguars visited Lucas Oil Stadium. But it wasn’t to be as the Colts managed just 212 total yards while committing three turnovers, which led to a 17-3 loss to the Jags. Their defense played well, limiting Jacksonville to just 251 total yards, but it wasn’t enough. Curtis Painter threw for 94 yards with two interceptions, and he was replaced by backup Dan Orlovsky. He went 7 of 10 for 67 yards, but Orlovsky also lost a fumble that set up a Maurice Jones-Drew touchdown.

Indy ranks 31st in total offense (275.7 yards/game) and 29th in total defense (390.6 yards/game). As of this writing, it is unclear whether Painter or Orlovsky will start at quarterback Sunday against the Panthers. I have to believe Orlovsky will get his shot since Painter hasn’t been able to get a win since taking over for Kerry Collins in Week 3 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Whoever is under center needs to get Reggie Wayne more involved. The Pro Bowl receiver has just 42 catches for 530 yards with one touchdown on the year. Pierre Garcon is their leading receiver with 43 receptions for 621 yards and four scores.

Betting Trends

The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite, but just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games overall.

The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week, but 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.

Looking for a proven winner to help you make your college football wagers? Expert handicapper Jack Jones is your man.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Jaguars Colts Odds

Jack Jones — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 03:37:05 +0000

The Indianapolis Colts are still looking for their first win of the season. Indy has their best chance to get one Sunday when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are winless away from home in 2011. Jacksonville has struggled when facing the Colts, losing 15 of 20 meetings all-time. They have just two wins in 10 visits to Indianapolis. These teams split both meetings last season with the home team winning each time.

According to the NFL spreads for Week 10, odds makers have installed Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite over Indianapolis and a total set of 37.5 points.

Jacksonville

The Jaguars are coming off a bye after a 24-14 loss at Houston their last time out. Jacksonville (2-6, 0-4 away) has been competitive this season thanks to a strong defense, but they have been unable to get over the hump due to a stagnant offense. That was on display once again versus the Texans as the Jaguars were outgained 358-174 for the game. Blaine Gabbert was very shaky, completing just 10 of 30 passes for 97 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.

Jacksonville ranks dead last in the league in total offense (242.6 yards/game). They have been able to rush for 119.0 yards/game, but the Jaguars are only getting 123.6 passing yards/game this season. You have to give credit to their stop unit though as they spend more time on the field than most defenses in the league. Jacksonville ranks 5th in the NFL in total defense (307.0 yards/game).

Gabbert is completing 45.7 percent of his passes for 907 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. Maurice Jones-Drew has been a bright spot on this team. He ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing with 740 yards and three touchdowns. Jones-Drew rushed for over 100 yards in their 31-28 home victory against the Colts last October. He has 929 yards in 10 meetings with the Colts, which is his most against any team.

Indianapolis

The Colts are in jeopardy of starting 0-10 for the first time since 1997. They rank among the league’s worst in scoring at 14.2 points/game, and they are near the bottom in scoring defense at 31.4 points/game as well. Indianapolis (0-9, 0-4 home) is coming off a 31-7 home loss to Atlanta last week. Curtis Painter went 13 of 27 for 98 yards, and he lost two tight ends in Dallas Clark (leg) and Brody Eldridge (hand) to injury.

For the season, Painter is completing 53.3 percent of his passes for 1,225 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions. His 193.5 passing yards/game is nearly 100 fewer than Peyton Manning averaged in 2010. Of course, he hasn’t been helped by a running game that ranks 22nd in the league (100.0 yards/game). Indy ranks 31st in the NFL total offense (282.8 yards/game).

The Colts rank just 30th in the league in total defense (406.1 yards/game), including 30th against the run (146.1 yards/game). Jones-Drew is likely in line for a big game against this soft stop unit. There’s no denying that the Colts have two of the best defensive ends in the league. But Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have combined for just eight sacks, which is 5.5 fewer than they had threw nine games last year.

Betting Trends

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, but just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

The Colts are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. However, Indy is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Falcons Colts Odds

Jack Jones — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 20:18:58 +0000

The Atlanta Falcons return from their bye Sunday in search of their first road victory over the winless Indianapolis Colts. They are coming off consecutive wins, and this is certainly their best chance to end what has been a tough history when matched up with Indy. Atlanta has dropped three straight to the Colts since a 28-21 home win back in 1998. In fact, that was their only win in 14 meetings all-time, and they have lost all six trips to Indianapolis and Baltimore.

Taking a look at the NFL lines for Week 9, I find a spread of Atlanta -7 over Indianapolis and a total set of 44.5 points.

Atlanta

The Falcons have put together two of their best defensive performances of the season in their last two games. After giving up averages of 26.0 points and 383.4 yards through their first five games, they have allowed just 16.5 points and 315.5 yards in back-to-back wins over Carolina and Detroit. Matt Ryan threw for 218 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions in a 23-16 victory over Detroit last time out. Michael Turner rushed for 122 yards, and the defense limited Matthew Stafford to 15 of 32 passing for 183 yards.

Ryan was injured in that game with a twisted knee and foot, but he showed his toughness by returning to the game after missing just a few plays. Atlanta (4-3, 2-2 away) comes out of their bye very healthy with the exception of Pro Bowl fullback Ovie Mughelli, who has been placed on injured reserve. Jason Snelling will take his place the rest of the way. Also, rookie receiver Julio Jones could return this week after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury.

Atlanta ranks 17th in total offense (335.0 yards/game) and 19th in total defense (364.0 yards/game). This team certainly isn’t where they wanted to be at this point of the season, but they are just a half-game behind NFC South-leading New Orleans. Ryan is completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. Michael Turner has four 100-yard rushing efforts this season, and 621 yards and six touchdowns overall. Roddy White has been held in check with 39 receptions for 425 yards and three scores.

Indianapolis

The Colts own the worst record in the league, and they are off to their worst start since opening 0-10 in Peyton Manning’s rookie year back in 1997. Indianapolis (0-8, 0-3 home) has suffered several key injuries all season, including the neck injury that has kept Manning out. The Colts are coming off a 10-27 loss to Tennessee, and they are all but certain to miss the playoffs. Indy had tied an NFL record with nine straight postseason appearances heading into 2011.

Curtis Painter threw a pair of interceptions in their road loss to the Titans last weekend. He is now averaging just 168.3 passing yards per game with one touchdown to four interceptions in his last three contests. Joseph Addai has been hampered by a hamstring injury, and he simply isn’t the same productive back he once was. Without a running game, life has been much more difficult on Painter in what has already been a painful season for the Colts.

Indy ranks 30th in total offense (294.9 yards/game) and 30th in scoring (15.1 points/game). Their stop unit has been put in tough situations and hasn’t been able to bail out the offense. The Colts rank 31st in total defense (402.9 yards/game) and 32nd in scoring defense (31.5 points/game). They are 31st against the run (144.0 yards/game), and they can expect to get a heavy dose of Michael Turner Sunday. We’ll definitely see what kind of heart this team has with the deck stacked against them.

Betting Trends

The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

The Colts are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record, but just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Colts Titans Line

Steve Janus — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 17:30:17 +0000

The Tennessee Titans will look to bounce back from a couple of bad losses when they host the winless Indianapolis Colts in week 8. The Titans were dominated 41-7 at home against the Houston Texans on Sunday, dropping them to 3-3 overall and 0-2 inside the AFC South. The Colts week 7 performance was one to forget. Indianapolis was absolutely crushed by the New Orleans Saints 62-7. The loss puts the Colts at 0-7, and you have to wonder if this team is going to win a game all year.

Taking a look at the week 8 NFL lines, oddsmakers have the Titans favored by 8.5-points over the Colts with the total set at 43.5.

Indianapolis Colts:

It will be interesting to see how the players respond to the beating they just received on Sunday Night Football. The Colts have shown a lot of heart this season with how hard they have played. Before the game against the Saints, Indianapolis had five straight games that were decided by 10 points or less, and they had a chance to win each of those games.

The Colts don’t have a lot of positives to build on from the Saints game. Indianapolis managed just 5 first downs, 252 yards of total offense, and by the time they found the endzone it was already 31-0. Curtis Painter completed just 9 of 17 for 67 yards with an interception, his 38.1 quarterback rating was by far his worst of the season. One player who had a nice game was rookie running back Delone Carter, who piled on 89 yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries. Carter could get even more touches this week, with starter Joseph Addai listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Injuries have been the story once again this season. The injury to Peyton Manning is what gets all the attention, but the Colts have seven players on I-R, and another eight that are either out of Sunday’s game or listed as questionable. You have to wonder if the loss to the Saints is a sign of what’s to come for the Colts down the stretch.

Tennessee Titans:

After starting out the season 3-1 that included an impressive 26-13 win over Baltimore, the Titans have taken a huge step back in their last two games. Tennessee lost 38-17 at Pittsburgh in week 5, then came back from their bye week and were crushed 41-7 at home against the Texans. I can understand this team losing both of those games, but the way in which they did is a huge cause for concern going forward.

Statistically the Titans had one of the best defenses in the NFL after the first four weeks. They were playing well against both the run and the pass and were holding opponents to just 14 points per game. That defense has been no where to be found the last two games. Pittsburgh piled on 437 total yards followed by 518 yards by Houston. This unit should be able to get back on track against a Colts offense that is 27th in passing (185.9 ypg) and 25th rushing (94.1 ypg).

Offensively the Titans haven’t been able to do much of anything all season. Matt Hasselbeck is coming off a miserable game where he went just 14 of 30 for 104 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. The veteran did injure his throwing hand in the loss, but is expected to play against the Colts. The injury to wide out Kenny Britt has really slowed down the passing attack.

This team desperately needs running back Chris Johnson to get going. Johnson has been one of the biggest disappointments in the entire NFL. He waited out all of training camp to get a new deal, and hasn’t done anything to deserve his money. His only 100-yard performance came against the Browns back in week 4. He has failed to rush for more than 55 yards in every other game this season. However, Johnson should be in for a big game against the Colts. Indianapolis is depleted on the defensive side of the ball and are giving up 150.9 ypg on the ground.

Betting Trends:

Indianapolis is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.

Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win in week 8 of the NFL.

Originially posted on BetFirms

Colts Saints Spread

Jack Jones — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 22:17:17 +0000

The New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts square off Sunday in a rematch from the Super Bowl following the 2009 season. The Saints won that game 31-17 thanks to a 74-yard interception return for a touchdown by Tracy Porter that put the game away. Peyton Manning wasn’t able to mount a comeback, and New Orleans head coach Sean Payton was carried off the field in a victory celebration. You won’t see Manning or Payton on the sidelines Sunday. The Colts’ quarterback remains out with a neck injury, and Payton suffered a torn meniscus and broken tibia from a fluke collision along the sidelines in last week’s loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

According to the NFL spreads, New Orleans is a 13.5-point favorite with a total set of 48 points.

New Orleans

Payton will likely coach from the press box until he recovers, which could take anywhere from three to six months. New Orleans (4-2, 2-0 home) had won four straight before a 26-20 loss to the Buccaneers over the weekend, and now they are in a first-place tie atop the NFC South with Tampa. Drew Brees set an NFL record by throwing for more than 350 yards for a fourth straight game, but his three interceptions proved to be the difference.

Brees is having a great season, completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 2,152 yards and 13 touchdowns. But he has also thrown eight picks already, including one in the Tampa Bay end zone last Sunday with just 3:16 to play. Pierre Thomas also had a costly fumble in the first quarter, and the Saints were held to a season-low 70 rushing yards in the loss.

Brees’ favorite target this season has been Jimmy Graham, who has 39 receptions for 620 yards and three touchdowns. Graham injured his ankle last week and didn’t practice Thursday, but he came back Friday to get some work in. He is likely to go Sunday, but certainly won’t be at 100 percent.

New Orleans ranks 2nd in the league in total offense (452.1 yards/game), including second in passing (344.3 yards/game). The Saints rank 17th in total defense (365.5 yards/game). They would certainly like to see their stop unit return to the form that helped win them a Super Bowl a few years back.

Indianapolis

Without the services of Manning, the Colts have stumbled to their worst start since 1997 when they opened 0-10. Indianapolis (0-6, 0-3 away) has been very competitive over their last five games, losing each time by 10 points or less. They just can’t get over the hump, and suffered another painful 27-17 setback at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

The Colts committed three turnovers against the Bengals, and had an Adam Vinatieri 52-yard field goal attempt blocked. Cincinnati returned a fumble 35 yards for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. Now, Indy could see their streak of at least 10 wins in nine straight seasons come to an end this week.

Curtis Painter has been respectable in Manning’s place. He is completing 54.9 percent of his passes for 806 yards and five touchdowns to just one interception. Painter is at least giving his team a chance to win, which is something that Kerry Collins could not say in his time as their starting quarterback.

Indy ranks 30th in the league in total offense (284.7 yards/game), including 28th in rushing (84.0 yards/game). The defense hasn’t been much better, either. The Colts are 27th in the NFL in total defense (392.5 yards/game), including 30th against the run (136.7 yards/game). Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney have combined for eight sacks, and they’ll need to get after Brees if the Colts are going to have any chance Sunday.

Betting Trends

The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater, and 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. But Indy is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.

New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after a loss. However, the Saints are only 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

For expert NFL advice you can count on this weekend, turn to professional handicapper Jack Jones.

Originially posted on BetFirms