2012 Tampa Bay Rays Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
Thanks to Boston’s historic collapse in September, the Tampa Bay Rays were able to make it back to the postseason with an impressive 91-71 record. Their attempt to make it back to the World Series was put to rest by the Texas Rangers in the first round. However, no one expected this team to remain a threat in 2011, especially after losing two of their best hitters in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena. Tampa Bay may not have the money to spend, but they have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball. One thing is for sure, don’t count the Rays out in the AL East. Here is a closer look at the projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation for Tampa Bay in 2012.
Projected Lineup
Jose Molina (Catcher) – The Rays believe they have made a big upgrade behind the plate with the free agent addition of Molina. While the 36-year-old won’t provide a lot offensively, just 29 home runs and 163 RBI in his career, he did hit a career-high .281 in 55 games with the Blue Jays last year. What Molina brings to the table is his defense. He is one of the best in the game at throwing out runners.
Carlos Pena (First Base) – Pena returns to the Rays after spending 2011 with the Cubs. He hit just .225 with Chicago, but remained a long ball threat with 28 home runs and 80 RBI. Pena hit 116 home runs in his first three seasons with Tampa Bay from 2007 to 2009.
Ben Zobrist (Second Base) – The 2009 All-Star got back on track after a horrible run in 2010. After hitting just .238 with 10 home runs and 75 RBI, Zobrist finished up 2011 with a .269 average, 20 home runs and 91 RBI. If he can stay on track, he has the potential to hit right around .270 with 100 runs, 20 home runs, 90 RBI, and 20 stolen bases.
Reid Brignac (Shortstop) – Defensively Brignac has all the tools, but his inability to do anything worth noting offensively limits his potential. Last year Brignac hit just .193 with one home run and 15 RBI in 249 at-bats.
Evan Longoria (Third Base) – Longoria overcame a slow start and finished up the year with 31 home runs and 99 RBI in 133 games, but his batting average ended up at a disappointing .244. I wouldn’t worry too much about Longoria’s average, as it should climb back around .285 this season. At just 26, we are likely to see the best of what he has to offer over the next 5+ seasons.
Desmond Jennings (Left Field) – Jennings showed a lot of promise in 63 games last season, despite a rough stretch towards the end of the year. His .259 batting average should improve as the 25-year-old matures. What has a lot of people excited is the fact that he hit 10 home runs with 25 RBI and 20 stolen bases in such a short period of time. Jennings will finally get a chance to showcase what he can do over a full season.
B.J. Upton (Center Field) – There are a lot of rumors floating around that the Rays are looking to trade Upton at some point this season, but a lot of that will depend on where the team sits around the trade deadline. Upton’s .243 batting average is a direct result of his lack of discipline at the plate (161 strikeouts), but its hard to ignore his 23 home runs, 81 RBI, and 36 steals from last year. At just 27, there is still a chance he could breakout and become an elite player.
Matt Joyce (Right Field) – Joyce is coming off a strong showing in his first season of extended playing time. He hit .277 with 19 home runs and 75 RBI over 141 games. If he can figure out a way to improve against lefties, just a .196 lifetime average, he has the potential to be one of the big surprises in 2012.
Projected Rotation
David Price (LHP) – Price didn’t exactly live up to his phenomenal 2010 season, where he went 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The 26-year-old ended up 12-13 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 34 starts. His poor record was more of a result of the Rays inept offense. Price was just the ninth pitcher in history to finish with a losing record while striking out at least 200 batters and an ERA under 3.50.
James Shields (RHP) – It’s hard to explain the amazing year Shields had in 2011. After going 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 33 starts in 2010, Shields came out and went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 33 starts last year. On top of that, he led the league with 11 complete games and four shutouts.
Jeremy Hellickson (RHP) – Hellickson will look to build off a remarkable rookie season where he went 13-10 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 29 starts. The 24-year-old has all the makings of a No. 1 starter, but needs to lower his walk rate, 72 last year, before he earns that title.
Wade Davis (RHP) – The Rays are hoping Davis can take that next step and live up to his potential in 2012. He went 11-10 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 29 starts, similar to his 2010 season where he went 12-10 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. This will only be his third season as a full-time starter, and at 26 he is just entering the prime of his career.
Matt Moore (LHP) – Tampa Bay is ecstatic about their 22-year-old pitching phenom that impressed everyone in just a couple starts at the end of last year. In his first career start he struck out 11 batters in five scoreless innings against the Yankees and followed that up by shutting out the Rangers over seven innings in the Rays only win of the postseason.
Projected Closer
Kyle Farnsworth (RHP) – Farnsworth was solid in his first season as the Rays primary closer. He converted 25 of 31 save opportunities while posting a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. If it wasn’t for the Rays starters throwing so many complete games, Farnsworth would have had closer to 35 saves last year. There is some concern with his elbow, but he has the potential to save a lot of games in 2012.
| 2012 Tampa Bay Rays Odds | |
| World Series | +1800 |
| AL Pennant | +900 |
| AL East | +450 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O86.5 (-130) |
| U86.5 (+100) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
B.J. Upton – 19.5
Evan Longoria – 30.5
Carlos Pena – 27.5
Matt Joyce – 18.5
Over/Under Total Stolen Bases in the 2012 Regular Season
Desmond Jennings – 37.5
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
David Price – 14.5
James Shields – 13.5
Matt Moore – 12
Jeremy Hellickson 12.5
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