TCU at Virginia Odds

Written by Jordan Haimowitz

tcu-virginia-predictions-091009 The Horned Frogs enter the 2009 football season fresh off a marquee bowl win last year over Boise State winning 17-16. They currently are ranked 16th in the AP poll and f you ask me, it is for a very good reason. They return now junior quarterback Andy Dalton who threw for 2,242 yards and 11 touchdowns last season while also rushing for 432 yards (200 more than his previous year) and 8 TDs on the ground. He is primed for an ever better junior campaign. Junior wide receiver Jimmy Young is fresh off a big time year catching 59 passes for 988 yards and five touchdowns. TCU is expecting big things out of sophomore wide receiver Antoine Hicks who has had a great camp. The questions that the Horned Frogs and head coach Gary Patterson will face is whether or not his defense will be as dominant as they were last year being amongst the top of almost every major defensive category in the Mountain West Conference and pretty good compared to the nations numbers as well. Four starters return on for this defensive squad and are led by senior cornerbacks Nick Sanders and Rafael Priest. This secondary is as good as you’ll see perhaps in all of college football as junior safety Tejay Johnson is an NFL prospect. Points will certainly be at a premium as TCU just does not give up big plays, that mainly due to their suffocating secondary. I normally look to pin point an x-factor that is an extra bonus to give his respective team an edge, but here QB Andy Dalton is the player that could turn this game into a blowout if he executes properly. His big play guy is Jimmy Young, if the Horned Frogs want an easy opener, these two better hook up for some long connections. The NCAA football odds for Saturday have TCU -11 against Virginia with the total set at 41.5 points.

Oh boy, The Virginia Cavaliers lose their home opener to Division 1-AA William and Mary by double digits, the final score being 26-14. That is nothing but bad news for current head coach Al Groh who has been on the hot seat of late anyway. Quarterbacks Jameel Sewell and Marc Verica combined for 130 yards through the air with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Sewell and Vic Hall combined for 94 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. If analyzed properly the starting wide outs for Virginia looked pretty good as Kris Burd and Jared Green were let down by pathetic quarterback play and an offensive line who couldn’t slow down a D-1 AA defensive attack. If they struggled against the Tribe from William and Mary, imagine what coach Patterson’s defense is going to do to them right?..WRONG! Virginia is not an inept team, they have a couple of well above average WRs in Burd (NFL capability) and Green who are very solid. Jameel Sewell is not nearly as bad as he showed and the defense was hobbled by a million turnovers last weekend being forced to defend short fields. Look for Sewell and Burd to hook up a ton in this game and for the defensive line to play decently against what a good TCU offense. The x-factor will no doubt be #1 wide receiver Kris Burd who is ready to make his name known in a big way. Virginia overall is not even in the same vicinity talent wise as the Horned Frogs of TCU are. However, playing at home after last weekend’s embarrassment will give them enough motivation to play with all the heart they have got. Notes and picks below.

Haimo’s Hot Notes: TCU are 12-5 in their last 17 games ATS overall. The Under is 15-7 in TCU’s last 22 games as the favorite. Virginia is 5-4 in their last nine games ATS overall. TCU is far more talented, The Cavaliers get the Horned Frogs in what is their opening game. Look for Andy Dalton to play just okay and for the home team’s offense to play with a sense of urgency. The spread here is TCU -11 and for my eyes that is WAY too high for this game. I am counting on a field goal game either way while an upset here is very much possible. Vic Hall has been the wildcard this week for Virginia, if he has a good game, the pressure will be off Jameel Sewell and the receiving core to make big plays. My gut tells me that the Cavs pull off a 20-17 win here but my mind tells me to play it safe and take the points. Picks below.

Jordan’s Picks: Virginia +11 & Under 41

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