TCU at Texas
The TCU Horned Frogs (6-4, 3-4 Big 12) travel to face the No. 18 Texas Longhorns (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) this Thursday. You can catch this contest on ESPN at 7:30 EST on Thanksgiving Day. Oddsmakers have installed Texas as an 8-point favorite with a total set of 61 points.
Why Texas Covers
The Longhorns still have a shot to win a share of the Big 12 thanks to a four-game winning streak within the conference heading into this showdown. They are certainly playing their best football of the season with four straight wins over Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State coming in.
The Horned Frogs have been overmatched in conference play for the most part this season. They have gone just 3-4 in the Big 12, and they are playing their worst football of the season right now with three losses in their last four games. Their only win during this span came in overtime against a struggling West Virginia team.
Texas is 28-1 all-time against TCU, so it has clearly dominated this series. It has won four straight over the Horned Frogs by an average of 17 points per game. The Longhorns are 16-3 in their last 19 home finales. On Senior Day, this will be a very emotional game for these players.
The Longhorns are 4-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents 43.2 to 24.4, or by an average of 18.8 points per game. Texas is 13-4 against the spread in home games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. The Horned Frogs are 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Longhorns are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following a bye week.
Why TCU Covers
The Horned Frogs clearly have the better defense in this one, which gives them a chance to keep it close. They are giving up 24.0 points per game this season while ranking 16th in the country in total defense at 326.3 yards per game. It is giving up a solid 374.3 yards per game in conference play, which is saying something in a league comprised of the best offenses in the country.
Texas is yielding 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 85th in the country in total defense at 429.6 yards per game. It has been horrible on this side of the ball in Big 12 play, giving up 34.7 points and 473.0 total yards per game. TCU is averaging 29.7 points and 427.1 total yards per game in conference play, so it should be able to move the ball and score points without a problem Thursday
TCU has played its best football on the road this season. It is 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring opponents 29.2 to 23.4, or by an average of 5.8 points per game. It has road wins over Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and SMU with its only loss coming at Oklahoma State.
The Horned Frogs are 10-2 against the spread in road games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. TCU is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Longhorns are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.