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Texans Buccaneers Line

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a key non-conference mathup. The Buccaneers lost 16-27 at New Orleans this past Sunday for their second straight loss and third in the last four games. but are still in the thick of things at 4-4 overall. The Texans continued their recent surge with a 30-12 win at home over the Browns. It was their third straight win and are now 6-3 with a 1.5-game lead in the AFC South.

Taking a look at the week 11 spreads. Oddsmakers currently have Houston favored by 3-points over Tampa Bay with the total set at 45.5 points.

Houston Texans:

The Texans recent three game winning streak seems to have a lot of people forgetting that this team also went through a stretch where they won just once in four games. Not to take anything away from what Houston has done up to this point, but I think this team is a little overrated. Their 17-10 win over Pittsburgh is the only win they have against a team that currently has a winning record. I believe they are the team to beat in the AFC South, but they have to start playing better against the top competition.

One thing you that makes this team dangerous down the stretch is their ability to run the football on just about any defense they go up against. In their last game against Cleveland Arian Foster carried 19 times for 124 yards and a touchdown and Ben Tate added another 115 yards and a score on just 12 attempts. These two have the Texans averaging 155.1 ypg on the ground.

The passing attack has been slowed due to the injury to wide out Andre Johnson, who is expected to miss yet another game as he continues to recover from a torn hamstring. Matt Schaub went just 14 of 23 for 119 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in the win over Cleveland.

While you can expect the Texans to continue to pound the ground game against a Tampa Bay defense that comes in giving up 132.4 rushing yards a game, Schaub figures to have his chances to attack a Buccaneers secondary that is 28th against the pass, giving up 266.5 ypg.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

We will find out a lot about this Tampa Bay club when they take the field against the Texans on Sunday. The Buccaneers aren’t happy with their 4-4 start and recent plunge in the standings, but it’s not like they have been playing terrible football. Their four losses this season have come against Detroit, San Francisco, Chicago, and New Orleans, who are a combined 24-9.  This will be just the second true home game for Tampa Bay since week 4. All three  of their most recent losses have came on the road. They are 3-1 at home this season with a could of impressive wins over Atlanta and New Orleans.

The big news surrounding the Buccaneers is the addition of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who fills a huge void in the middle of the defensive line after Tampa Bay lost star defensive tackle Gerald McCoy for the season. While Haynesworth has been a major disappointment in his two stops in Washington and New England, the Bucs run a very similar defense to which Haynesworth excelled in Tennessee. It’s unclear if he will play against Houston, but there is no doubt they could use him to help stop the powerful attack of Foster and Tate.

Tampa Bay is hoping a return home will spark an offense that has really struggled over the last two games. Tampa Bay averaged just under 13 points in their three road losses, but are scoring 21.5 points at home this season. In their last game against New Orleans the Buccaneers put up 365 yards of total offense, but were doomed by having to settle for three field goals instead of finishing off drives with touchdowns.

Josh Freeman completed 27 of 37 attempts for 281 yards and a touchdown, but couldn’t make the big throw when they needed it. LaGarrette Blount rushed for 72 yards on just 13 attempts (5.5 avg.) in his first game back since hurting his knee back in week 5 against San Francisco, and this is one guy Tampa Bay has to get going if they are going to finish strong over the last eight weeks of the season.

The offense will have to be at it’s best against the Texans this week. Houston comes in 2nd against the pass (182.6 ypg) and 4th against the run (91.4 ypg). While the Texans have made remarkable strides on the defensive side of the ball, they have had their struggles against some of the better teams. In their three losses against the Saints, Raiders, and Ravens they have allowed  just over 31 points and 378 yards of total offense.

Betting Trends:

Houston is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Tampa Bay is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.