2011 Texas A&M Football Predictions


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Mike Sherman took the step forward that is expected from most head coaches in their third year when he led the Texas A&M Aggies to a 9-4 record in 2010. They went 6-2 within their conference for a third place finish in the Big 12 South. After a 3-3 start, this team reeled off six straight victories before losing to LSU in their bowl game. That included a 33-19 home win over Oklahoma, who will be ranked #1 in the preseason polls.

The Aggies welcome back 18 starters this season along with 80.3% of their lettermen. In fact, they lose only 6 of their top 50 players from last season. There is a lot of excitement in Aggie country and you can see why. I’ll give you a look at how this team shapes up both offensively and defensively, while also giving my predictions on where A&M will finish in the Big 12.

Offense:

The Aggies had a very productive 2010 season offensively, putting up 442 total yards and 31.2 points per game. This unit really took off when Ryan Tannehill took over for Jerrod Johnson at starting quarterback midway through the season. Tannehill, the former #1 receiver for this team in 2008, completed 65% of his passes for 1,638 yards and 13 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. He came into the game in the second half against Kansas and not only led the team to victory in that game, but also won five straight starts thereafter. He will be trying to break a trend of three straight Aggie QB’s to struggle in their senior seasons, dating back to Reggie McNeal. The offense returns 10 starters in all.

Texas A&M only had one 1,000-yard rusher dating back to 1999 before Cyrus Gray emerged on the scene last year. Christine Michael made the first six starts last year before breaking his tibia. Gray was productive all along, and really took off in the featured role. He finished with 1,180 rushing yards on 5.7 YPC with 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 100-plus yards in seven straight games including an A&M-record 223 against Texas. Michael posted 653, 5.0 and 4 before injury. Both are back this season and should form one of the best two-headed rushing attacks in the nation.

The receiving corps is deep and talented. Senior Jeff Fuller returns after setting the Aggies single-season records for receiving yards (1,066) and also career receiving touchdowns (28). He caught 72 balls last year, 12 of which went for touchdowns. Junior Ryan Swope is also back after catching 72 balls for 825 yards and 4 touchdowns. Junior Uzoma Nwachuwku (36, 407, 4) rounds out the starting three at wideout. Texas A&M returns its top nine in receptions from a year ago.

The offensive line protected very well last season, and also paved the way for a rushing offense that averaged 165 yards per game and 4.1 per carry. Four of five starters return, including nine of the top 10 from last year. They do lose second-team All-Big 12 C Matt Allen, but junior Patrick Lewis should be able to make the transition from guard to center a smooth one. This shapes up to be one of the best offensive lines in the Big 12.

Defense:

This Aggie stop unit made big strides last year in Sherman’s third year on the job. A&M allowed 21.9 points and 364 total yards per contest, and should have even more room to improve eight returning starters. The one they will really miss is Von Miller, the second overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. You simply cannot replace his 68 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss, all due to his freakish speed as an edge rusher.

The defense allowed just 130 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry, the lowest totals they have posted since 2001. The defensive line was the biggest reason, and five of their top six players return. They do lose DE Lucas Patterson, who started in all 13 games and registered 50 tackles and 3 sacks. Senior Michael Ebbitt adds even more depth to their rotation, and this was easily the best unit in the spring. In their second year in the new 3-4 system, this D-line should be even more dominant in 2011.

At linebacker is where they will have to replace Miller, who led the FBS in sacks (17) in 2009 and has led the Big 12 in that category each of the past two seasons. He became A&M’s first Butkus Award winner with his efforts. Not only do they lose Miller, but they also will be without second-team All-Big 12 ILB Michael Hodges who led the team in tackles (115) with 7.5 of those coming for a loss. They do bring back their #2 and #3 tacklers in seniors Garrick Williams and Sean Porter, respectively. If there is one question mark on this team it’s clearly at linebacker.

The secondary wasn’t phenomenal last year, allowing 234 passing yards on 60.4% completions. They were better than they had been over the previous three seasons, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t improve again in 2011. That’s because their entire 2 deep returns, including five players who made seven or more starts last year. Senior corners Terrence Frederick and Coryell Judie combined for 13 pass break-ups and 5 interceptions last year. Senior Trent Hunter also had 2 picks from the free safety position.

Big 12 Prediction: 2nd Place – There is a lot of reason for the excitement in Aggie land. This team returns their starting quarterback, leading rusher and their top nine wide receivers from what was a very potent offense last season. The defense should be improved up front and in the secondary, but they aren’t going to be as dynamic at the linebacker level without Miller and Hodges. The only thing preventing me from taking Texas A&M to win the Big 12 is the fact that they have to play Oklahoma on the road on November 5th, and the Sooners enter 2011 having won 31 straight conference home games.

Big 12 Football Predictions by Team
Iowa State Cyclones Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats Missouri Tigers
Baylor Bears Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Football Predictions Texas Tech Red Raiders

 

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ACC Big 12
Conference USA Independents
PAC 12 SEC
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