Texas A&M at Texas Tech Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The 24th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies square off against the Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday for the final time as Big 12 opponents. The Aggies will be making their move to the SEC starting in 2012-13, but they have more pressing issues on their minds for now. After squandering big leads in back-to-back weeks, Texas A&M will travel to Lubbock to take on the unbeaten Red Raiders for the 70th time in this rivalry. Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST and this game can be seen on FX.

The books in Las Vegas have set a spread of Texas A&M -9 over Texas Tech with a total set of 70.5 points.

Texas A&M

The Aggies could be in the discussion for a national title if not for two straight second half meltdowns. Texas A&M (2-2, 0-1 Big 12) led Oklahoma State by 17 at halftime two weeks ago, but allowed quarterback Brandon Weeden to throw for a school record 438 passing yards in a 30-29 Cowboys’ victory. It was déjà vu all over again last weekend as the Aggies jumped out to a 35-17 halftime lead on Arkansas. The Razorbacks made a ferocious comeback led by quarterback Tyler Wilson, who threw for a school record 510 yards in a 42-38 win for Arkansas.

Texas A&M is giving up an FBS-worst 336.8 passing yards per game this season, so the problems have clearly been on defense. They are 5th in the country against the run (63.0 rushing yards/game), but teams have been abandoning the running game and picking on this soft Aggie secondary. Offensively, this team has had little problem moving the football. Texas A&M ranks 9th in the country in total offense (518.6 yards/game) behind 223.8 on the ground and 294.8 through the air.

Ryan Tannehill is completing 68.0 percent of his passes for 1,139 yards and six touchdowns to five interceptions. His favorite targets have been Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller. Swope has 26 receptions for 380 yards and two touchdowns, and Fuller has 26 grabs for 268 yards and two scores. Texas A&M features perhaps the best 1-2 punch at running back in the country. Christine Michael has rushed 57 times for 408 yards (7.2/carry) and five touchdowns, while Cyrus Gray has carried it 80 times for 363 yards (4.5/rush) with six touchdowns.

Texas Tech

While the Red Raiders made a change at head coach two years ago, little has been different with the way this team goes about their business. Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) is going to try to outscore their opponents every week behind a high-powered offense and great quarterback play. They fell behind Kansas 20-0 in the first quarter last week, but didn’t flinch for a second. The Red Raiders would go on to outscore the Jayhawks 45-13 the rest of the way to pull off a 45-34 victory.

Texas Tech ranks 7th in the country in total offense (525.0 yards/game), including 9th in passing (345.5 yards/game) and 41st in rushing (179.5 yards/game). As good as they’ve been offensively, they have been equally bad on the other side of the ball. The Red Raiders are 99th in total defense (427.0 yards/game), including 110th against the run (229.0 yards/game). Their biggest weakness is Texas A&M’s biggest strength, so the Red Raiders could be in for a long day Saturday.

Seth Doege is just another player in the long list of great Texas Tech quarterbacks. The junior is completing 73.3 percent of his passes for 1,315 yards and 14 touchdowns to one interception this season. He certainly likes to spread the ball around as six different Red Raider receivers have double-digit receptions. Leading the way has been Darrin Moore (21 receptions, 339 yards, four TD) and Eric Ward (20, 215, seven TD). Eric Stephens has rushed for 468 yards (5.4/carry) with seven touchdowns.

Betting Trends

Texas Tech is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Texas A&M. The Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings in this series, and the Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games, but just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.

The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0, but only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.

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