Texas at Baylor Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The No. 19 Baylor Bears host the Texas Longhorns Saturday in the Big 12 finale for both schools. This will be a rematch from a 30-22 road victory by Baylor last season, who handed the Longhorns one of their seven losses on the year. Quarterback Robert Griffin III threw for 219 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for a score to lead the Bears to their first win in Austin since 1991.

According to the latest college football odds, Baylor is a 2.5-point favorite over Texas with the total set at 64 points.

Baylor

The Bears have put together a very impressive season. Baylor (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) is riding their second four-game winning streak of the year into this game with the Longhorns. They have picked up impressive wins over Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech during this run. Their 45-38 win over then-No. 5 Oklahoma was their first triumph over the Sooners in program history. The Bears would follow it up an impressive 66-42 victory over Texas Tech last Saturday.

Baylor took care of the Red Raiders despite Griffin III watching from the sidelines after halftime. The Heisman Trophy hopeful was taken out due to an apparent concussion. The Bears finished with 617 total yards, including 360 rushing. Tarrance Ganaway ran 42 times for 246 yards and two touchdowns, giving him a school-record 14 on the season. Nick Florence played well in Griffin’s place, completing 9 of 12 passes for 151 yards and two long touchdowns to Kendall Wright and Terrance Williams.

This team ranks 2nd in the country in total offense (576.8 yards/game) and 111th in total defense (470.3 yards/game). Griffin is completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 3,678 yards with 34 touchdowns and only five interceptions on the year. He has also rushed for 623 yards and seven scores, and Baylor expects him to play Saturday. Ganaway has rushed for 1,186 yards and those 14 scores. Wright is having a huge year, catching 95 balls for 1,406 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Texas

The Longhorns haven’t played at the level they had hoped coming into the season, but they have showed some improvement over last year nonetheless. Texas (7-4, 4-4 Big 12) will be going to a bowl game, which is a step in the right direction after a 5-7 campaign last year which had them left out of the postseason. After scoring a combined 18 points in back-to-back losses to Missouri and Kansas State, the Longhorns finally got some offense in a 27-25 victory at Texas A&M last Saturday.

Texas’ Case McCoy wasn’t spectacular all game, but he was when he needed to be down the stretch against the Aggies. He got the ball back trailing 25-24 with 1:48 to play, and after a 15-yard personal foul penalty, he scrambled for a 25-yard run. That huge play set up the game-winning 40-yard field goal from Justin Tucker as time expired. The Longhorns were outgained 328-237 for the game, but the defense came up with four big turnovers which proved to be the difference.

The Longhorns rank 58th in the FBS in total offense (390.1 yards/game), but just 93rd in passing (178.8 yards/game). They will certainly need to be more dynamic offensively if they are going to keep up with this high-powered Baylor offense Saturday. Texas will also need another big performance from a stop unit that ranks 9th in the country in total defense (297.5 yards/game), which is impressive considering they play in the Big 12. McCoy is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 689 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. He is clearly the right choice at starting quarterback for this team.

Betting Trends

Texas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, but just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.

Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, but 17-37 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win.

The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Baylor.

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