2011 Texas Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The Texas Longhorns are coming off the most disastrous season in the Mack Brown era. Texas went 5-7 last year and did not reach a bowl game for the first time since Brown took over as head coach back in 1998. The Longhorns may have suffered from an emotional hangover from losing in the BCS title game to Alabama the previous year. They even lost five games in Austin to the likes of UCLA, Iowa State and Baylor among others, while also getting blown out at Kansas State by 25 points. Needless to say, Brown and company are going to come back very hungry in 2011.

Looking ahead, Texas will be returning 12 starters. While that number is tied for the fewest in the Big 12, the Longhorns have a ton of talent coming back with 49 lettermen in all. Texas must cut down on their turnovers (-12 in 2010) on offense, because they return perhaps the best defense in the conference. Let’s take a look at how their offense and defense shapes up heading into the fall, along with my prediction on how the Longhorns will fare in the Big 12 this season.

Offense:

The offense was mostly to blame for the losing season last year. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert has to take the bulk of the blame after completing just 59% of his passes with 10 touchdowns to 17 interceptions. The Longhorns did outgain their opponents by 83 yards/game overall and 53 yards/game in conference play, which was the fifth-best mark in the Big 12. Just remember, Colt McCoy struggled his sophomore season before having a Heisman Trophy-worthy junior campaign. If Gilbert gets the job, he should be much better in his junior year and will certainly cut back on the bad decisions he made last season. Colt’s brother, Case McCoy, will be battling it out into the fall with Gilbert. Other candidates for the job are Connor Wood and David Ash. This Texas offense returns six starters in all.

The Longhorns have a deep, rich tradition at running back. Their Heisman Trophy winners from the position include Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams. Cedric Benson rushed for 1,000-plus yards in four consecutive seasons. Jamaal Charles also led the team in rushing for three straight seasons. The Longhorns haven’t had a featured back since Charles, and have struggled rushing the football each of the last three years. In fact, after 10 weeks last year Gilbert was their leading rusher from the QB position. That’s why Mack Brown went out and signed perhaps his most talented RB recruit since Benson in freshman Malcolm Brown. Look for him to have a monster year and likely top 1,000 yards on the ground after a solid spring.

Texas returns two of their top four receivers from a year ago in senior Malcolm Williams and sophomore Mike Davis. This duo combined for 71 catches, 812 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Marquise Goodwin also caught 31 balls for 324 yards and a score and is penciled in as their No. 3 receiver. Look for junior DeSean Hales to also play a significant role in the passing game. He was clearly Gilbert’s favorite target in the spring despite only catching 10 balls for 75 yards a year ago.

The offensive line paved the way for 151 rushing yards per contest on 4.2 per carry last season while only allowing 18 sacks as a unit. They lose LT Kyle Hix (3-year starter), LG Michael Huey (2-year starter) and RT Britt Mitchell (12 starts last year). Like last year, they return just two starters, but have a chance to improve with very highly touted recruits along the 2 deep. Senior C David Snow and sophomore RG Mason Walters are each back. They are likely to start sophomores Trey Hopkins and Paden Kelley at left guard and left tackle, respectively. Senior Tray Allen should take over at right tackle. This offense is poised to be much better off with co-offensive coordinators Bryan Harsin and Major Applewhite this season. Harsin has been the play caller at Boise State over the last five years.

Defense:

As stated before, the defense was not to blame for the Lonrghorns’ woes last season. Texas ranked 6th in the country in yards per game allowed (300.2). They only allowed 161.6 passing yards per game, which was the sixth-lowest mark in the nation. That’s very impressive considering they play in the pass-happy Big 12. Manny Diaz has the unenviable task of replacing 3-year defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who left to become Florida’s new head coach. Diaz was Mississippi State’s defensive coordinator last year and did a very nice job in the tough SEC. He’ll take over a unit that has six returning starters from last season.

It all starts up front where the Longhorns have three players returning who started at least five games last season along the defensive line. They do lose first-team All-Big 12 DE Sam Acho, who was their #4 tackler and had a team-high 9 sacks a year ago. They will also be without DE Eddie Jones, their #8 tackler and second-best sack man with 6 QB takedowns. Junior DT Alex Okafor is back as well as senior NT Kheeston Randall. At only 260 pounds, Okafor will move to DE and play opposite of sophomore Jackson Jeffcoat. Sophomore Ashton Dorsey takes Okafor’s place at DT. This unit is just as experienced as last year and has a chance to improve despite losing their top two sack guys from 2010.

Texas is one of the few teams that likes to divide up their playing time between starters and backups at linebacker. Coming into last season, they had three very highly touted recruits at linebacker. Jordan Hicks failed to make much of an impact with only 23 tackles, while two others sat out the entire season. Sophomore Hicks is expected to make a much bigger impact this year as the starting weak side linebacker. He’ll be out there along with their two leading tacklers from a year ago in seniors Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson. SLB Robinson led the team with 113 tackles, while MLB Acho was second with 87 stops. This is clearly one of the best sets of linebackers the Longhorns have ever had.

The Longhorns do have to replace a lot of talent in their secondary after allowing only 162 PYPG a year ago despite inconsistent play from their front seven. They lose three players to the NFL Draft in CB Curtis Brown (7 pass break ups, 26 tackles), DB Aaron Williams (13, 46) and Chykie Brown (7, 19). While they do return three players who started six or more games last year, this unit is less experienced and will likely suffer a drop in production because of it. Returning are senior SS Christian Scott (53 tackles, 1 INT) and senior FS Blake Gideon (68 tackles, 2 INT) to hold down the last line of defense. Sophomore corners Adrian Phillips and Carrington Byndom have big shoes to fill on the outside.

Big 12 Prediction: 3rd Place – While I don’t believe Texas has the talent to compete with Oklahoma or Texas A&M for a Big 12 title, they do have a schedule that is clearly one of the best in the conference. Their road games will come at Iowa State, Missouri, Baylor and Texas A&M. That contest with the Aggies is the only game they should lose outside of the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. They get Oklahoma State at home, which is the main reason I am picking them to finish ahead of the Cowboys. This is a team that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after a disastrous 2010 campaign, making them a tough out for anyone.

Big 12 Football Predictions by Team
Iowa State Football Predictions	Kansas Football Predictions
Kansas State Football Predictions	Missouri Football Predictions
Baylor Football Predictions	Oklahoma Football Predictions
Oklahoma State Football Predictions	Texas Football Predictions
Texas A&M Football Predictions	Texas Tech Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions	Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions	WAC Football Predictions

Other Resources:

Locksmith Sports – 4th in Big 12

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