Texas at Missouri Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The No. 21 Texas Longhorns hit the road for the first time in over a month Saturday as they travel to face the Missouri Tigers. This has been a pretty one-sided series as the Longhorns have won six straight over the Tigers since the turn of the century. They last met in 2009 with Texas coming away with a dominant 41-7 victory in Missouri. Both teams have fallen on hard times since.

Taking a look at the odds in Las Vegas, I find Texas as a 1-point favorite over Missouri and a total set of 58.5 points.

Texas

The Longhorns opened the season with four straight victories. Texas (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) would go on to lose to then-No. 3 Oklahoma and then-No. 6 Oklahoma State. They have responded nicely from those two home losses, picking up a pair of blowout home wins over Kansas (43-0) and Texas Tech (52-20). The Longhorns will be hitting the road Saturday for the first time since a 37-14 victory at Iowa State on October 1st.

Texas became bowl eligible with their win over the Red Raiders after missing the postseason last year, which hadn’t happened since 1997. They outgained Texas Tech 595-411 for the game behind a season-high 439 rushing yards. Freshman Joe Bergeron led the way with 191 yards and three touchdowns. Fozzy Whitaker chipped in 83 rushing yards and two scores against one of the worst run defenses in the nation.

This team ranks 30th in the country in total offense (437.2 yards/game), including 10th in rushing (246.4 yards/game). They are also 15th in total defense (310.8 yards/game), and their play on this side of the ball has been the biggest reason for their turnaround. Texas has been winning in spite of a passing offense (190.8 yards/game) that ranks 89th in the land. David Ash is their starting quarterback, and he is completing 61.9 percent of his passes for just 740 yards with three touchdowns to five interceptions.

Missouri

Like Texas last year, the Tigers are in jeopardy of missing a bowl game. Missouri (4-5, 2-4 Big 12) will have their fate decided at home as they play the Longhorns this weekend, followed by Texas Tech and Kansas over the final two weeks. This is arguably the best team in the country that has a losing record right now. Four of their five losses have come by 10 points or less. That includes a 42-39 setback at Baylor last Saturday.

The Tigers trailed 28-10 after three quarters before going off for 25 points in the final period, but it wasn’t enough. That’s because Missouri allowed Baylor to rack up a school-record 697 total yards behind 406 passing and three touchdowns from Robert Griffin III. The Tigers did manage 578 yards of their own, including 325 passing and three touchdowns from James Franklin. Henry Josey rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns as well.

Josey has been a bright spot on this team, leading the Big 12 in rushing with 1,149 yards (8.6/carry) and nine touchdowns. Franklin is having a solid season as well, throwing for 2,195 yards with 16 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing with 599 yards and a team-high 10 touchdowns. Missouri ranks 10th in the country in total offense (500.0 yards/game), but just 90th in total defense (416.3 yards/game). They give up 148.6 yards/game rushing, and their ability to stop the run will go a long way in determining the outcome Saturday.

Betting Trends

Texas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Tigers. However, they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.

Missouri is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game, but only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

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