2011 Texas Tech Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

Texas Tech has been one of the more underrated programs over the past few decades. They have put together 18 straight winning seasons, making them the only member of the Big 12 with at least 16 straight despite playing in the same division as Oklahoma and Texas. The Red Raiders went 8-5 in Tommy Tuberville’s first year on the job in 2010. It ended with a 45-38 victory over Northwestern in the TicketCity Bowl. The transition from Mike Leach’s former spread system continues as Texas Tech looks to build on their streak of consecutive winning seasons in 2011.

Tuberville welcomes back 14 starters this season, but loses his top playmakers on offense. The new Red Raiders will take a run-first approach in 2011 offensively, while also hoping to get improved play from a defense that allowed Iowa State to score their most-ever points in a Big 12 game in a 52-38 setback last year. Let’s take a look at the players you will see on Saturday’s both on offense and defense, as well as my prediction on where the Red Raiders will finish in the final Big 12 standings.

Offense:

While the offense was solid last year at 33.1 points and 460 total yards per game, it was not as potent as it had been under Mike Leach the previous three seasons. This offense figures to suffer an even bigger drop in production in 2011 despite returning seven starters. That’s because their top two quarterbacks, top running back and their two top receivers from last year have all graduated. Leach always had a talented QB under center with the likes of Graham Harrell, Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield. Potts and Sheffield have split time each of the past two seasons, with both having had successful careers here.

Now it’s up to the highly touted trio of junior Seth Doege, sophomore Jacob Karam, and redshirt freshman Scotty Young to try and carry on the rich tradition of Texas Tech quarterbacks. Doege is likely to get the first crack after taking 50% of the snaps in spring practice. Offensive coordinator Neal Brown has installed the pistol, and whoever wins the job will have to master the zone-read option. With a new starter under center and a new system, the former gaudy passing numbers are sure to decrease in 2011.

At running back, the Red Raiders lose Baron Batch to graduation. Batch led the team in rushing for three consecutive seasons, and was a threat catching the ball out of the backfield. Despite losing him, the cupboard isn’t bare in the backfield. Junior Eric Stephens returns after finishing second to Batch with 668 yards on 5.3/carry and 6 touchdowns. Four of their top five rushers are back, and true freshman Ronnie Daniels will be thrown into the mix after an impressive spring. Look for the rushing numbers (141/game, 4.2/carry) to improve even though Batch is gone due to the new emphasis on a more explosive ground attack.

In Leach‘s tenure here, Tech had eleven 1,000-yard receivers. The Red Raiders didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver last year, and they lose their top two guys in Lyle Leong (74 catches, 926 yards, 19 touchdowns) and Detron Lewis (87, 852, 6). Third-leading receiver Alex Torres (39, 481, 3) returns after an injury-plagued sophomore campaign, as do seniors Tramain Swindall (33, 271, 1) and Jacoby Franks (25, 254, 0). Junior college transfer Marcus Kennard figures to take over as the fourth starter at receiver and will be their jump-ball guy in the red zone. Adding depth are Brent Mitcham, Jordan Davis and TE Tony Traham, who transferred from Rutgers.

While all of their biggest playmakers are gone, the new skill position players should have plenty of time and room to operate considering Tech returns their entire starting offensive line intact. They feature three seniors and two juniors, including 2010 second-team All-Big 12 performers in RT Mickey Okafor and LG Lonnie Edwards. With a full year of experience in Tuberville’s new system, this unit should only improve.

Defense:

Despite only having four starters back in 2009, the Red Raiders were outstanding defensively. They allowed only 22.5 points and 352 total yards/game that year. Texas Tech brought back eight starters in 2010, but suffered a major drop-off in production (30.9 points, 456 yards). This year they have seven starters coming back and need to be much better on this side of the ball if they want to improve as a team in 2011.

The defensive line returns six players with starting experience, including senior NT Donald Langley and sophomore DT Kerry Hyder. They do lose first-team All-Big 12 DE Colby Whitlock, who was their #5 tackler (57) and had 8.5 tackles for loss last year. Also gone is #4 tackler Brian Duncan (63 tackles, 12 for loss). Junior DE Scott Smith and sophomore DE Aundrey Barr were each lost for the season after four games last year, but both come back healthy this year and figure to be in the starting lineup. With more experience back along the D-line, the Red Raiders will be making the switch to a 4 man front.

At linebacker, Texas Tech loses their leading tackler in Bront Bird who had 106 stops a year ago. They do bring back #2 tackler Cody Davis (87 tackles, 6.5 for loss), who will be making the switch from DB to WLB. Aside from him, their top returning linebackers ranked #9, #10 and #12 on the team in tackles last year. They are starting MLB Sam Fehoko, starting SLB Cqulin Hubert and backup WLB Brett Dewhurst. This unit will be less experienced, meaning it will likely be worse-off in 2011.

The secondary was the biggest weakness on this team in 2010. Tech allowed opposing quarterbacks to rip them apart for 294 passing yards on 61% completions per contest. A big reason for the lack of production is the recruiting philosophy and change in scheme from zone to man-to-man. The installation of a new 4-2-5 scheme this year should help the Red Raiders keep opposing QB’s in check, especially since they return six defensive backs with starting experience. Sophomore CB’s Jarvis Phillips (10 pass break-ups, 4 INT) and Derrick Mays resume their starting roles, while sophomore FS Tre Porter is back after finishing third on the team in tackles (76) a year ago. They do lose SS Franklin Mitchem, but sophomore Terrance Bullitt is ready to take his place. That means the Red Raiders are likely to start four sophomores in the secondary, though this group is much more experienced than you would expect.

Big 12 Prediction: 8th Place – I simply don’t believe the Red Raiders are going to be able to replace all of the playmakers they lose on offense. The best thing they have going for them is an offensive line that returns intact, but unfortunately they will be relying on too much fresh blood to make plays at the skill positions. Texas Tech still has a lot of questions surrounding their defense, especially at linebacker. A very young secondary won’t help matters, either. This is clearly a team in rebuilding mode and one that won’t be ready to compete with the elite teams in this conference. There are no more gimmes on their schedule. Even though they get Iowa State at home, you can’t forget the Cyclones hung 52 on them last season. This has the makings of a 3-6 team at best in Big 12 play in 2011, but my best guess is 2-7.

Big 12 Football Predictions by Team
Iowa State Football Predictions	Kansas Football Predictions
Kansas State Football Predictions	Missouri Football Predictions
Baylor Football Predictions	Oklahoma Football Predictions
Oklahoma State Football Predictions	Texas Football Predictions
Texas A&M Football Predictions	Texas Tech Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions	Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions	WAC Football Predictions

Comments

One Response to “2011 Texas Tech Football Predictions”

Jason Creppon on July 22nd, 2011 12:10 PM

Dude,

You have lost your mind if you think that Texas Tech is going to go 2-7 in conference play. Seriously, you need to re-evaluate your prediction.

Thanks,

Jason

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