Texas Tech at Missouri Spread
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Missouri Tigers each look to become bowl eligible Saturday when they square off in Columbia at Faurot Field. Neither of these teams have had the kind of success they had hoped for coming into the season, but both can save face if they can at least qualify for the postseason. The Red Raiders put an end to a three-game losing streak to the Tigers with a 24-17 home victory last season. In fact, the home team has now won five of the last six meetings.
Odds makers in Las Vegas have installed a line of Missouri -18 over Texas Tech and a total set of 68 points.
Missouri
The Tigers have arguably played better than their record this season. Missouri (5-5, 3-4 Big 12) has had several near misses all year. Four of their five losses have come by 10 points or less, with the lone exception being a 45-24 home loss to then-No. 4 Oklahoma State on October 22nd. The Tigers picked up a huge 17-5 home victory over then-No. 16 Texas last Saturday in easily their best defensive performance of the season.
Before last week, Texas was the only team that head coach Gary Pinkel had never beaten. Also, the Tigers held the Longhorns out of the end zone for the first time since 2004. They outgained Texas 338-247 for the game while limiting a solid Longhorn rushing attack to just 76 yards on the ground. Quarterback James Franklin completed his first 10 passes and ran for a 2-yard score. The bad news for the Tigers is that they lost Big 12 leading rusher Henry Josey for the season with a ruptured tendon in his knee. Kandial Lawrence rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown in Josey’s place.
Missouri ranks 12th in the country in total offense (482.8 yards/game) and 71st in total defense (399.3 yards/game). Franklin is completing 63.1 percent of his passes for 2,381 yards with 16 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and he’s also the team’s second-leading rusher with 632 yards and 11 scores. Josey had rushed for 1,168 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 8.1/carry before getting injured against Texas, so his loss cannot be understated. T.J. Moe is Franklin’s top target with 49 receptions for 621 yards and four touchdowns.
Texas Tech
The Red Raiders pulled off the biggest upset of the season on October 22nd with a 41-38 win at then-No. 3 Oklahoma. Since putting an end to the Sooners’ 39-game home winning streak, Texas Tech (5-5, 2-5 Big 12) has appeared to pack it in. They were beaten at home by Iowa State 41-7 the next week, followed by a 52-20 road loss at Texas. Then, the Red Raiders were trounced at home 66-6 by Oklahoma State last Saturday.
The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders 637-270 for the game in a completely dominant effort on both sides of the ball. They limited Tech quarterback Seth Doege to just 25 of 43 passing for 169 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Tech got their lone score on a defensive touchdown as Cornelius Douglas returned a fumble 37 yards early in the third quarter. But by that point, the game had already been decided. Oklahoma State took a 49-0 lead into halftime and basically coasted the rest of the way.
Texas Tech ranks 16th in the FBS in total offense (474.6 yards/game) and 109th in total defense (472.0 yards/game). If they were to lose Saturday, then they will have one last chance to become bowl eligible as they host the Baylor Bears next week. Doege has been one bright spot for this team. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,329 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions. They lost leading rusher Eric Stephens for the season back in Week 6 against Texas A&M, and they really have had no running game since. Alexander Torres (51 receptions, 616 yards, four TD) and Eric Ward (61, 603, nine TD) are Doege’s top two targets.
Betting Trends
Texas Tech has responded well after a loss in year’s past, going 45-20-1 ATS in their last 66 games following a S.U. loss. However, the Red Raiders are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games overall. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
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