Tips for Betting the 2009 Kentucky Derby
Written April 29, 2009 by Steve Janus
There are plenty of facts and “did you know?” information out there about the Kentucky Derby. For the 135th race, held this Saturday, May 2nd, I thought I would try to sift through as much information as I could find and pinpoint those facts that can help us pick this year’s winner (or at least narrow it down). And we’re off!
Prep Races: The Kentucky Derby preparatory race whose winner has most often produced the Kentucky Derby winner since 1970 is the Florida Derby with 11. Unfortunately for bettors, this year’s Florida Derby winner, Quality Road, will not be participating in the the Kentucky Derby due to a cracked hoof. So, what other races have produced Kentucky Derby winners over the past 38 years? Well, the next-best has been the Wood Memorial, whose winner has gone on to 10 Kentucky Derby wins. Not surprisingly, this year’s Wood Memorial Winner, I Want Revenge, has opened as the favorite to win the Running of the Roses this year at 3/1 odds. Other notable race winners that have done well in the Kentucky Derby have come out of the Bluegrass Stakes, as well as the Arkansas Derby, each of whose winners have gone on to the winner’s circle in Kentucky 9 times. This year’s winners were Papa Clem (Arkansas Derby Winner, currently listed at 20/1 odds in the KD) and General Quarters (Bluegrass Stakes Winner, currently listed at 20/1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby).
Post Positions: Now, I recently posted an article based on the announced post positions for the Kentucky Derby this year, but here is a more in-depth look at how each post position has done recently, as well as historically. Something you should definitely note is that no horse in the #1 position at the Kentucky Derby has won since 1986 (Ferdinand). Strangely enough, however, it should also be noted that the #1 position ties the #5 position with 12 wins a piece since the turn of the 19th century, the most of any other post position. There are two positions that have not produced a Kentucky Derby winner in this time period, those being #17 and #19, so you may be wise to steer clear of them this year. There are two positions that have produced just one winner in this same time frame, those being #18 and #19, showing yet again the disadvantage there seems to be in the outside positions at the Kentucky Derby. For those of you interested, here is a quick rundown of the post positions I haven’t already mentioned, and the number of winners from that position since 1900: Number Two – 9 winners, Number Three – 8 winners, Number Six – 6, Number Seven – 8, Number Nine – 4, Number Eleven – 3, Number Twelve – 3, Number Thirteen – 4, Number Fourteen -2, Number Fifteen -3, Number Sixteen – 3.
Hopefully some of these facts will help you when you are trying to pick this year’s Kentucky Derby winner. Be sure to check the odds often, as they are sure to change before the race starts. If you are going to bet the Kentucky Derby, be sure you consider Sportsbook.com’s 100% Win Bonus on your 2009 Kentucky Derby bets.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- 2009 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
- 2009 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide
- 2009 Kentucky Derby Predictions
- Beginner’s Guide to Betting the Kentucky Derby
- 2009 Kentucky Derby Props
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