Titans Bills Line

Written by Steve Janus

The Buffalo Bills are set to host the Tennessee Titans in a huge AFC matchup that has playoff implications for both teams. The Bills fell 24-28 to the Jets this past Sunday for their fourth straight loss since opening the season 5-2. With the way the AFC is shaping up, Buffalo will likely have to win their final five games to even have a shot at making the playoffs. Tennessee is just a game ahead of the Bills at 6-5, but they are well within striking distance in the AFC South. The Titans 23-17 win at Tampa Bay kept them within two games of first place Houston. Tennessee has won three straight and six of the last seven in the series, including a 41-17 win the last time they played in 2009.

Taking a look at the week 13 NFL spreads , oddsmakers currently have the Bills favored by 1.5-points over the Titans with the total set at 43 points.

Tennessee Titans:

The Titans will be out for to win consecutive games for the first time since winning three straight from Sept. 18 – Oct. 2. With the injuries to Houston’s starting quarterbacks the Titans are definitely in the mix in their division, but they have to start showing some more consistency.

Tennessee went into the fourth quarter trailing the Tampa Bay 10-17. Up to that point the only touchdown they had on the board was from a 84-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. The offense had managed just a field goal in three quarters, but they came alive when it mattered most. The Titans scored outscored the Buccaneers 13-0 in the fourth quarter, thanks in larger part to running back Chris Johnson, who rushed for a season-high 190 yards on 23 attempts.

With starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck having a bit of an off day, the breakout game from Johnson couldn’t have come at a better time. Hasselbeck was just 19 of 34 for 160 yards with one touchdown to two interceptions.

The key for Tennessee is to find a way to keep Johnson going. This is the third time this season the star running back has broke the 100-yard mark, but so far he has not been able to back it up the next week. After rushing for 101 yards against Cleveland, Johnson managed just 51 the following week vs the Steelers. In week 10 he had 130 yards against Carolina, but followed that up with just 13 yards on 12 carries against the Falcons.

The Bills have the 21st ranked run defense in the league, giving up 123.8 ypg on the ground, and come in off a game where they allowed 138 yards to the Jets. Not only should Johnson be able to have some success, but Hasselbeck should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo secondary that ranks 22nd against the pass (243.6 ypg).

Buffalo Bills:

While the Bills played a lot better than expected in their 24-28 loss to New York last week, this team has to find a way to end this slide before its simply too late. If they can find a way to knock off the Titans. They have a winnable game at San Diego next week, followed by two home games against Miami and Denver. One thing to keep in mind, Buffalo is 4-1 at home this season, with wins over Oakland, New England, and Philadelphia.

The big positive out of the lost to the Jets was the fact that the Bills offense finally got something going. Buffalo put up 24 points against a Jets defense that held them to just 11 back in week 9. Coming into the game the Bills had scored just 26 points combined in their previous three games.

With running back Fred Jackson out for the season, the pressure lies on the Bills passing game to get them back in contention. Backup running back C.J. Spiller had just 55 yards on 19 attempts, and has yet to show anything to make me believe he is going to become a big factor down the stretch.

Ryan Fitzpatick snapped out of a funk to throw for 264 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets, and that’s the kind of performance he has to have if this team is going to start winning again.

Whether or not they can keep the offense rolling against the Titans is tough to tell. Tennessee biggest weakness this season has been stopping the run, as they come in allowing 124.1 ypg. On the other hand, they have been solid against the pass, holding opposing offenses to just 229.1 ypg.

Betting Trends:

Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Buffalo is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

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