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Titans Falcons Odds

The Atlanta Falcons host the Tennessee Titans Sunday in a non-conference NFL showdown in Week 11. This is a rare meeting between these teams as they have only faced each other seven times since 1987. Tennessee has had the edge, winning six of those meetings. They won their most recent showdown with the Falcons 20-13 at home in 2007. These are two teams trying to fight for a playoff spot in their respective conferences, so there is certainly a lot on the line Sunday.

Taking a look at the lines, I find a spread of Atlanta -6 over Tennessee and a total set of 44 points.

Atlanta

The Falcons were rolling with three straight wins heading into last week. They welcomed their biggest rivals in the NFC South to the Georgia Dome in a key divisional showdown. Atlanta fought tough, but eventually lost 26-23 in overtime to the New Orleans Saints. Head coach Mike Smith has been drawing a lot of headlines all week after going for a fourth down deep in his own territory in the extra session. Michael Turner was stuffed on the Atlanta 29-yard line, and John Kasay eventually kicked a 26-yard field goal to give the Saints the victory.

Atlanta (5-4, 2-2 home) had to claw its way back from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter even to force overtime. Matt Bryant nailed a 27-yard field goal on the final play of regulation, and the Falcons certainly had all of the momentum. That’s why it is hard to blame Smith for his decision, but nonetheless this loss is all on him. Matt Ryan threw for 351 yards and two touchdowns with one interception, and Michael Turner rushed for 96 yards on 22 carries for Atlanta. Henry Douglas also had a breakout game with eight receptions for 133 yards.

The Falcons rank 12th in the league in total offense (362.0 yards/game) and 14th in total defense (344.1 yards/game), including 3rd against the run (90.3 yards/game). Atlanta now sits one game behind the Saints in the NFC South division, so it is going to be an uphill battle the rest of the way. Ryan is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,309 yards with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Turner has rushed for 788 yards and seven scores on the season. Roddy White has been held somewhat in check with 47 receptions for 563 yards and three touchdowns this year. He may need to play an even bigger role this week as fellow wideout Julio Jones is doubtful with a hamstring injury.

Tennessee

The Titans trail the Houston Texans by 1 ½ games in the AFC South after a 30-3 road victory over the Carolina Panthers. With Houston starting quarterback Matt Shaub going down with a potential season-ending foot injury, this team has a legitimate shot to overtake them in the division. Chris Johnson finally got on track against the Panthers, rushing for a season-high 130 yards and a touchdown.

It was only Johnson’s second 100-yard game of the season. Despite their season-best 172-yard rushing effort as a team last week, the Titans still rank last in the NFL in rushing (81.3 yards/game). However, they lead the NFL in red zone touchdown efficiency at 71.4 percent (15 of 21). A key to their success as a team this season has been to get Johnson enough touches. When he gets at least 15 carries, they are 3-0 this season.

Tennessee (5-4, 2-2 away) ranks 21st in the league in total offense (318.3 yards/game) and 15th in total defense (349.4 yards/game). Matt Hasselbeck has resurrected his career with the Titans, completing 61.9 percent of his passes for 2,233 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Johnson only has 496 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the year. Nate Washington is their leading receiver with 39 receptions for 501 yards and two scores. Fellow receiver Damian Williams has picked up his play the last two weeks, catching nine balls for 141 yards and two touchdowns.

Betting Trends

The Titans are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points, but just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Falcons are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. loss, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.