New York Jets at Tennessee Titans Odds
The New York Jets (6-7, 3-3 away) visit the Tennessee Titans (4-9, 2-4 home) on ESPN’s Monday Night Football in Week 15. Taking a look at the pro football odds in Las Vegas, I find that the books have installed Tennessee as a 1-point favorite over New York with a total set of 42 points.
Why Tennessee Covers
The Titans have lost three of their last four games, but they easily could have won all four. In fact, you could argue that they should have won each game. A closer look at the results shows that this team is playing much better of late than it gets credit for.
This stretch started with a 37-3 win at Miami on November 11th in which the Titans outgained the Dolphins 293-255. They outgained the Jaguars the next week 360-321 despite falling 19-24. They outgained the Texans on December 2nd 354-332 but lost 10-24. Last week, they outgained the Colts 356-269 and fell 23-27. As you can see, they have outgained four straight opponents.
Tennessee has been getting good production from its ground game this season. It is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and it should have good success on the ground against a New York defense that ranks 27th in the league against the run. The Jets are allowing 136.5 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. Rex Ryan is 3-12 against the spread versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry as the coach of New York.
The Titans are 20-7 against the spread after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992. Tennessee is 10-2 against the spread in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. It has struggled against the spread of late, but it easily could have won each of its last four games.
Why New York Covers
While the Titans have already been eliminated from postseason contention, the Jets are still alive. They have an excellent chance to win their final three games against the Titans, Chargers and Bills, which would leave them with a 9-7 record. That could be good enough to get them a wild-card spot, so this team certainly still has something to play for.
New York has won two straight and three of its last four with its only loss coming to the Patriots during this stretch. It has two road wins over this span with a 27-13 victory at St. Louis on November 18th, and a 17-10 win at Jacksonville last Sunday. It has been playing great defensively of late, limiting its opponents to 291 or less yards in its last three wins. It even held the Cardinals to 137 total yards in a home victory on December 2nd.
The Jets are certainly the better defensive team in this one, and it’s really not even close. They rank 8th in the league in total defense at 332.4 yards per game allowed. Tennessee ranks 26th in total defense at 377.3 yards per game. The Jets should have no problem shutting down a Tennessee offense that ranks 23rd in the league, gaining an average of 331.5 total yards per game.
This play falls into a system that is 51-26 (66.2%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) – terrible defensive team (370+ YPG) against an average defensive team (295 to 335 YPG).
Mike Munchak is 2-9 against the spread as a favorite as the coach of Tennessee. His teams are actually getting outscored 17.8 to 21.0 in this spot, or by an average of 3.2 points per game.