Toronto Blue Jays 2010 Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The Toronto Blue Jays started last season 27-14, owning the best record in the majors and leading the AL East by 3 ½ games. But injuries along their starting rotation, along with the meat of the AL East schedule still to go, the Blue Jays struggled the rest of the way and finished with a 75-87 record, 28 games behind the Yankees. After a month of trying to shop Halladay, GM J.P. Ricciardi was fired. When 32-year-old Alex Anthopoulos stepped in as new GM, he decided that trading Halladay to the Phillies was the right move. Seattle also got involved, and the Blue Jays received prospects Kyle Drabek, Travis D’Arnaud and Michael Taylor in exchange for one of the best starters the league has ever seen. Taylor was then shipped to Oakland for former first-rounder Brett Wallace. Toronto is loaded with young talent, but they are taking the long-term approach in trying to become contenders in the ultra-competitive AL East division. MLB odds show the Blue Jays projected win total at 71.5.

Pitching:

The Blue Jays led the majors with a 3.49 ERA as a team in 2008, but that mark plummeted to a 4.47 ERA in 2009 which ranks 22nd in the big leagues. With Halladay gone, don’t expect any improvement in 2010. The Jays are relying on homegrown guys like Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Mark Rzepcynski and David Purcey to help fill out the rotation. Richmond becomes the No. 1 starter after a 13-9 record with a 4.30 ERA in his 2009 rookie season. Shaun Marcum is the No. 2 guy after going 9-7 with a 3.39 ERA in 2008, only to sit out the ‘09 season after having right elbow surgery. Dustin McGowan also missed all of last year with right shoulder surgery, and then he had to have surgery on his left knee in July of last year. But both are expected to return healthy, and should provide a boost to this rotation. Brandon Morrow will get the No. 3 spot after coming over from Seattle. Morrow was solid in his time with the Mariners, posting between a 3.34 ERA and a 4.39 ERA in his three seasons there. The No. 4 and No. 5 spots are likely to go to Mark Rzepcynski and Brett Cecil, respectively, but several other players will be in the mix. The bullpen features stalwarts in Jason Frasor and Scott Downs as the primary set-up guys. Frasor went 7-3 with a 2.50 ERA last year, and Downs has posted a .309 ERA or better in his last three seasons with the Blue Jays. Toronto brought in Kevin Gregg to be their closer, even after a shaky season with the Cubs.

Hitting:

Toronto signed John Buck from the Royals to be their catcher. He has a long swing and is impatient at the plate, but does provide some power when healthy. 1B Lyle Overbay has been a steady producer the last two years, hitting .270 and .265 with 15 and 16 HR’s the last two seasons, respectively. 2B Aaron Hill is coming off a career year in which he hit .286 with 36 HR’s, 108 RBI’s and 103 Runs scored. 3B Edwin Encarnacion was picked up late last season, and if he can return to his 26 HR’s form of 2008, he’ll be a great addition to this line-up. SS Alex Gonzalez doesn’t provide much help at the plate, but he does have one of the best gloves in the game. The outfield features Travis Snider in left, Vernon Wells in center and Jose Bautista in right. Adam Lind will also spend time in the outfield when he’s not in the DH role. Lind is also coming off a career year, hitting .305 with 35 HR’s and 114 RBI’s. Snider is a former top prospect that has yet to live up to his potential, but he’ll get a real shot this season. Wells has been a disappointment the last three years, but he still has enough left in the tank to be a force in this line-up. Bautista has a ton of power, but hits for a low average, finishing with .238 and .235 BA’s each of the past two seasons.

Jack’s Prediction: 4th in the AL East and OVER 71.5 Wins – Toronto’s 75 wins last season were their fewest in the last 5 years. The Blue Jays won between 80 and 87 games from 2005 to 2008. Knowing this alone makes us like the OVER, though this team will certainly miss Roy Halladay, no question. But they did get some solid pitching prospects back in the Halladay deal, and they have a plethora of talented youngsters that are chomping at the big to get their chance in the big leagues. This starting staff is at least as good as Baltimore’s when you compare it from top to bottom, and their line-up features a few boppers that can produce runs with Lind and Hill in the middle of their order. This Blue Jays’ bullpen is one of the best in the league, and they’ll be able to close out games when they are handed leads. It’s a crap shoot as to whether the Blue Jays finish fourth or fifth in the AL East with the Orioles, but knowing that they’ve finished with at least 75 wins for 5 straight years, I have to give the edge to Toronto.

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