2012 Toronto Blue Jays Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Toronto Blue Jays finished up 2011 fourth in their division at 81-81. It was the fifth time in the last six seasons the Blue Jays finished at .500 or better, but that simply isn’t good enough in the loaded AL East. Toronto has now gone 20 consecutive years without a postseason appearance, but they don’t appear too far from making a serious run at the top three of New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay. Let’s take a look at the Blue Jays projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation for 2012.
Projected Lineup
J.P. Arencibia (Catcher) – The Blue Jays would like to see Arencibia improve his sub-par .219 batting average, but they will definitely take another season of 23 home runs and 78 RBI from the catcher position. Last year was just his first season as a full-time starter, which has me thinking he will only improve offensively over the next few years.
Adam Lind (First Base) – Lind hasn’t been able to live up to the huge expectation he set in 2009 when he hit .305 with 35 home runs and 114 RBI, but the Blue Jays aren’t about to give up hope just yet. Lind batted just .251 last year, but did hit 26 home runs with 87 RBI in just 125 games.
Kelly Johnson (Second Base) – The Blue Jays acquired Johnson from Arizona late last season after giving up on Aaron Hill. The change of scenery seemed to give Johnson some life offensively. After hitting just .208 in 114 games with the Diamondbacks, he hit .270 over 33 games in Toronto.
Yunel Escobar (Shortstop) – Escobar battled back from a bad 2010 season to hit a respectable .290 in 133 games last year. However, the 29-year-old doesn’t have the power or speed to believe he will be anything more than a solid contact hitter.
Brett Lawrie (Third Base) – Toronto is excited about the future of their 22-year-old third baseman. In just 43 games last year, Lawrie hit .293 with nine home runs, 25 RBI, and seven steals. There is a ton of upside going forward, but he must show he can keep up those numbers over the course of full season.
Eric Thames (Left Field) - Thames is another player the Blue Jays are counting on to build off a small sample size in 2011. Thames hit .262 with 12 home runs and 37 RBI in just 95 games, but most importantly he continued to get better as the season went on.
Colby Rasmus (Center Field) – The Blue Jays landed Rasmus in a midseason trade with the Cardinals and are hoping he performs better than he did in his 35 games with the club last season. Rasmus hit just .173 with three home runs and 13 RBI over that stretch, but the 25-year-old still has the potential for a breakout season.
Jose Bautista (Right Field) – Bautista ended any doubts that his 2010 season was a fluke. After hitting .260 with an astonishing 54 home runs and 124 RBI in 2010, the slugger backed it up by hitting .302 with 43 home runs and 103 RBI, despite being walked a Major League leading 132 times.
Edwin Encarnacion (Designated Hitter) – Encarnacion has flashes where he looks like he is finally ready to deliver that breakout season, but so far he has yet to put it together in Toronto. In a stint after the All-Star break, Encarnacion hit .289 with 12 home runs and 40 RBI, but overall he hit just .272 with 17 home runs and 55 RBI.
Projected Rotation
Ricky Romero (LHP) – Romero solidified himself as the ace of this staff after another impressive run in 2011. The 27-year-old went 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 32 starts. In just three big league seasons, Romero has already racked up 42 career wins and is just now entering the prime of his career.
Brandon Morrow (RHP) – Morrow catches a lot of peoples eyes with his high strike out total. He fanned 203 batters in just 179.1 innings of work last season. Unfortunately that hasn’t transitioned into the type of season you would expect. Morrow went just 11-11 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 30 starts last year.
Brett Cecil (LHP) – Cecil took a big step in the wrong direction last season. After going 15-7 with a 4.22 ERA in his first season as a full time starter, the youngster went 4-11 with a 4.73 ERA in 2011. While the future doesn’t look as bright anymore, there is still time for the 25-year-old to get things turned around.
Henderson Alvarez (RHP) – Alvarez showcased what he is capable of in a strong showing last season. While he went just 1-3 in his first 10 career starts, his 3.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are strong indicators that the best is still to come for the 21-year-old.
Dustin McGowan (RHP) – Heading into spring training it looks like McGowan holds a slight edge for the No. 5 spot over Kyle Drabek. McGowan’s career has been hampered by shoulder troubles, but there is reason to believe he will hold down a spot in the rotation. While his 6.43 ERA and 1.47 WHIP are concerning, his 20 strikeouts in 21 innings of work are a promising sign.
Projected Closer
Sergio Santos (RHP) – The Blue Jays made a trade to bring Santos back to Toronto, where he began his career as a shortstop. Needless to say, the guy is much better off shutting the door in the ninth. After taking over the closer role in May, while with the White Sox, Santos converted 30 of 36 save opportunities. What really makes him special is his ability to pile on the strikeouts. He fanned 92 hitters in just 63.1 innings of work last season.
| 2012 Toronto Blue Jays Odds | |
| World Series | +4000 |
| AL Pennant | +2200 |
| AL East | +1200 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O81.5 (-130) |
| U81.5 (+100) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Colby Rasmus – 18.5
Adam Lind – 25.5
Jose Bautista – 38.5
J.P. Arencibia – 24.5
Brett Lawrie – 19.5
Kelly Johnson – 20
Over/Under BA in the 2012 Regular Season
Jose Bautista – .285
Brett Lawrie – .280
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Ricky Romero – 13.5
Brandon Morrow – 10
Brett Cecil – 7.5
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Francisco Cordero & Sergio Santos – 39.5
MLB Predictions by Team
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