Trend Handicapping
Written by Jack Jones
One subject I tend to get questions about, and sometimes criticized in my writeups for are trends. First off let me point out something. I’m not a complete idiot. I’m saying complete because sometimes I look back at the games I took before and wonder what was I thinking taking the teams I did, but I think that’s usual after any blowout loss. Now with that being said I want to point out that I do not always use trends for handicapping purposes, but I will toss them in the writeup. Why, well I don’t want to give up all of my secrets on how I break down matchups, but I want the client to feel comfortable knowing that I put the time and effort in to make sure that we have the best side on the game that we are taking. I try to avoid things like “Minnesota is 7-0 ATS on the last 7 Tuesdays,” but occasionally you will see something like “7-0 ATS coming off a road loss.” Of course, seven games is not a very big sample set so don’t think that just because it has happened seven times in a row that the eighth time it’s going to come through for you again.
When you look at trends, it is definitely more beneficial for you to have a larger sample set so you can trust the results as not being cyclical or inside a standard deviation. The number that I look for is around 150. If a trend has held up over the past 150 times then I start to have confidence in the trend. You won’t see this happen too often, but if you do then these are the games to look for. I have found 150 to be a nice, conservative and effective guideline for trend handicapping and that is the point that I can start to be influenced. If I am researching a certain trend and find that I’m getting .500 results after 100 or so samples, then it’s time to move on and look for a new angle. If it’s holding up to a strong winning percentage after 150 or so real life examples, then it’s probably worth taking a stab at it with my sports picks and with my personal bets. What do I mean by strong winning percentage? Over 60%, any less than that and I still don’t trust the sample set is high enough. There are plenty of other sports handicapping methods out there to help you pick winners.
Anyway, I hope this answers some of the questions that I have been receiving on trends, and to rest the minds of those clients who feel like I’m really backing a play solely because the team is 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss by 3 points or less on a Tuesday! As always, good luck.
Here are some other articles written about general sports betting & handicapping:
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