UCLA at Oregon Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Friday the Oregon Ducks will host the UCLA Bruins in the first ever PAC-12 Championship Game. Oregon and Stanford each finished 8-1 out of the North, but the Ducks 53-30 win at Stanford allowed them to advance to the title game. While UCLA finished two games back of USC (7-2) in the South at just 5-4 in conference play, they advance thanks to a ban that keeps the Trojans from playing in the postseason until the 2012 season. It’s not exactly the premier matchup the PAC-12 was hoping for in in its inaugural Championship Game.

Looking at the week 14 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have Oregon favored by 31.5 points over UCLA with the total set at 66 points.

UCLA:

The Bruins might be the worst BCS team to ever play in conference Championship Game. Not only do they get in by the fact that USC can’t play in the postseason, but to add insult to injury they were blown out by the Trojans 0-50 this past Saturday. All four of their conference losses came by 25 points or more, and it is going to take a miracle for them to even keep this game close. The one thing UCLA has going for them is they have nothing to lose in this game.

Offensively the Bruins rely heavily on a ground game that averages 193.3 ypg, but overall they really don’t have a lot that scares you on that side of the ball. The are the 88th worst scoring offense in the nation, averaging just 23.2 ppg. In their last game against USC they managed just 124 rushing yards on 36 attempts. Kevin Prince had a respectable game with 261 yards on 21 of 33 passing, but none of that led to a single scoring drive.

You have to be able to score touchdowns to even have a chance against Oregon, which is why I think the Bruins simply have zero chance of winning this game. The Ducks don’t have the greatest defense, allowing 384.7 ypg, but are more than capable of at least containing the UCLA offense.

Oregon:

The Ducks only conference loss was a 35-38 loss at home to USC, where they fell behind by 24 points before nearly pulling off a remarkable comeback late. The only thing that is going to keep Oregon from winning this game, is if they don’t take UCLA seriously. While their national title hopes were crushed in that loss to the Trojans, I believe the players will be more than motivated with an automatic BCS bowl game on the line.

The Ducks feature one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in all of college football. They are 3rd in the country at 45.9 points per game, and 6th in total offense with an average of 510.6 yards of total offense. Their biggest strength is running the ball, where they come in averaging 291 ypg behind star running back LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. James has rushed for 1,427 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Barner has chipped in 830 yards and 11 scores.

The duo of James and Barner figure to have a field day against a suspect UCLA defense that comes in allowing 178.2 ypg on the ground. The Bruins defense as a whole is not good. They are 87th in scoring defense, giving up 30.8 ppg. It’s not a matter of if Oregon will win this game, but by how much. 31.5-points is a lot to lay in a game of this magnitude, as you can expect the very best of what UCLA has to offer on both sides of the ball.

Betting Trends:

UCLA is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, but 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

Oregon is 27-13-3 ATS in their last 43 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater, but are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Be sure to stop back and check out what Steve Janus has going this week in college football.

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