2011 US Open Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
Last week Harrison Frazar won the FedEx St. Jude Classic after defeating Robert Karlsson in a playoff. While the win means a lot to Frazar, all the attention is now on the second major of the season. This Thursday the top golfers in the world will tee it up at the 2011 US Open. The tournament will be held at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Maryland. It will be the first time the US Open has been played at Congressional since 1997.
With the tournament rotating through courses you can’t put too much into who won the previous year. In 2010 Graeme McDowell won at Pebble Beach, but he comes into the 2011 US Open with the 14th best odds to win at +4000. 2009 winner, Lucas Glover, is even farther down on the list at +6500.
While the courses change, the key to scoring low at this major remains the same. The players need to keep the ball in the fairway off the tee and take advantage of any birdie opportunities when they present themselves. With rain in the forecast early on, look for the scores to be low this week, as players should be able to attack the pins with soft greens.
With the tournament set to get underway in just a couple days, here is a look at the three guys I feel have a great shot at winning this week.
Phil Mickelson (+1200) – Mickelson comes in with the third best odds to win behind Lee Westwood (+1000) and Luke Donald (+1000). While Mickelson has never won this event, he has came close a number of times. In 2010 he finished second to McDowell. It was the fifth time in his career that he has finished in second place at the US Open. Mickelson has had an up and down run this season. While he hasn’t missed a cut, he has only finished in the top 10 four times in 11 starts. His only win came at the Shell Houston Open back in March. Still I think Mickelson comes in as the guy to beat, and should be right there with a chance to win on Sunday.
Matt Kuchar (+1800) - Kuchar is playing exceptionally well this season. He hasn’t missed a cut in 14 starts, and eight of those starts have resulted in a top 10 finish. While none of those resulted in a win, he comes into the open off his best finish of the season (T2 Memorial Tournament). He has the all-around game that you need to have to score well at the US Open. He is 16th in fairways hit, 12th in greens in regulation, and 5th in putting. Kuchar also comes in off his best finish at this event in 2010, as he tied for 6th, just four shots off the lead. At +1800 there is some solid value on him to win this week.
Dustin Johnson (+2500) - My final pick goes on a guy who I feel is sitting a bit under the radar heading into this event. Johnson has three top five finishes this season, and is coming off a strong 4th place finish in his last start at the Memorial. Like Kuchar, he too comes in off a strong showing at the 2010 US Open, where he finished tied for 8th. Johnson should be able to take advantage of the wet conditions early on, as he is 13th in greens in regulation, 31st in putting, and 6th in birdie conversions.
Complete Odds to Win 2011 US Open
| Lee Westwood | +1000 |
| Luke Donald | +1000 |
| Phil Mickelson | +1200 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1400 |
| Martin Kaymer | +2200 |
| Steve Stricker | +2200 |
| Hunter Mahan | +2200 |
| Matt Kuchar | +1800 |
| Nick Watney | +3000 |
| Dustin Johnson | +2500 |
| K.J. Choi | +2500 |
| Jason Day | +4000 |
| Bubba Watson | +3500 |
| Graeme McDowell | +4000 |
| David Toms | +4500 |
| Jim Furyk | +5000 |
| Adam Scott | +5000 |
| Padraig Harrington | +5000 |
| Robert Karlsson | +5000 |
| Ian Poulter | +5500 |
| Charl Schwartzel | +5000 |
| Paul Casey | +5500 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | +5000 |
| Matteo Manassero | +6000 |
| Sergio Garcia | +5500 |
| Retief Goosen | +6000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +6000 |
| Justin Rose | +6500 |
| Rickie Fowler | +6500 |
| Aaron Baddeley | +7000 |
| Lucas Glover | +6500 |
| Francesco Molinari | +7000 |
| Ernie Els | +7000 |
| Angel Cabrera | +8000 |
| Zach Johnson | +8000 |
| Jonathan Byrd | +9000 |
| Stewart Cink | +9000 |
| Bill Haas | +9000 |
| Ryan Moore | +8000 |
| Alvaro Quiros | +8000 |
| Gary Woodland | +7000 |
| Y.E Yang | +9000 |
| Martin Laird | +10000 |
| Webb Simpson | +10000 |
| Robert Allenby | +10000 |
| Anthony Kim | +10000 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +12500 |
| Ryan Palmer | +12500 |
| Edoardo Molinari | +12500 |
| Rory Sabbatini | +10000 |
| Ben Crane | +12500 |
| Bo Van Pelt | +12500 |
| Peter Hanson | +10000 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | +12500 |
| Jeff Overton | +12500 |
| Trevor Immelman | +12500 |
| Camilo Villegas | +12500 |
| Mark Wilson | +12500 |
| Charley Hoffman | +15000 |
| Davis Love | +15000 |
| Alexander Noren | +15000 |
| Kevin Na | +15000 |
| Seung Yul Noh | +17500 |
| Chad Campbell | +12500 |
| Johan Edfors | +15000 |
| Brandt Jobe | +12500 |
| DA Points | +17500 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | +15000 |
| Shane Lowry | +15000 |
| Kevin Streelman | +17500 |
| Marc Leishman | +20000 |
| Gregory Havret | +20000 |
| Greg Chalmers | +20000 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | +17500 |
| Chez Reavie | +25000 |
| Kyung Tae Kim | +25000 |
| Heath Slocum | +25000 |
| Alex Cejka | +25000 |
| Henrik Stenson | +25000 |
| Stephen Gallacher | +25000 |
| Robert Rock | +25000 |
| Tim Petrovic | +25000 |
| Kevin Chappell | +30000 |
| Scott Piercy | +30000 |
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