USC at California Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Thursday the USC Trojans will go on the road to take on the California Golden Bears in a PAC-12 showdown. The Trojans improved to 4-1 overall and 2-1 inside the conference with a 48-41 win over Arizona in their last game. USC wasn’t in action this past week, giving them plenty of time to prepare for this matchup. The Golden Bears were crushed 43-15 at Oregon this past Thursday, despite leading 15-14 at half. The loss dropped California to 3-2 overall and 1-2 in the conference. USC has won six straight in the series, including a 48-14 win at home a season ago.

Taking a look at the week 7 college football spreads, oddsmakers have the Trojans favored by 3-points over the Golden Bears.

USC Trojans:

The offense came alive in the Trojans 48-41 win over Arizona. Matt Barkley threw for 468 yards and four touchdowns, by far his best performance of the season. Barkley had a field day throwing the ball to sophomore wide out Robert Woods, who had a season-high 14 catches for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Barkely also hooked up with freshman wide out Marquise Lee 8 times for 144 yards and a score.

There is no question that the USC offense is at it’s best when they are moving the ball in the passing game. Barkley and the USC passing attack rank 15th in the country, averaging 317.8 passing yards a game. It’s not as if USC can’t run the football. They are averaging 136.6 ypg behind Marc Tyler’s team-leading 338 yards and two touchdowns. However, the ground attack has produced just four rushing touchdowns all season, while the Trojans have scored 14 touchdowns through the air.

This week USC will face a California defense that really has to be lacking confidence after giving up 74 points in back-t0-back losses against Washington and Oregon. While the Golden Bears allowed 365 rushing yards to the Ducks last week, I believe USC will have their success throwing the ball. California was allowing just 78 yards a game on the ground prior to getting torched by Oregon. In their two other conference games, California allowed 474 passing yards in a win over Colorado and 292 in a loss to Washington.

California Golden Bears:

When you look at the final score of last week’s game against the Ducks, you might think California really struggled to move the ball on offense. That wasn’t the case at all. The Golden Bears had 465 yards of total offense, but just couldn’t convert when it mattered most. California is still averaging 34.6 ppg in 2011.

Starting quarterback Zach Maynard finished 20 of 41 for 218 yards and a touchdown before being pulled late. Maynard made a number of great throws, but also had a bunch of passes that weren’t close to his target. That inconsistency is a big reason why the Golden Bears struggled to keep up with the Ducks. Despite problems with accuracy, Maynard has thrown just three interceptions to 11 touchdowns in 2011.

Maynard simply needs to get the ball into the hands of his three dynamic skill players, and the offense should get back on track. Wide outs Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones have combined for 68 catches for 1,109 yards and seven touchdowns, while running back Isi Sofele has carried it 91 times for 499 yards and four scores. In the loss to Oregon Allen had nine catches for 170 yards and a touchdown, Jones caught six passes for 66 yards, and Sofele rushed it 12 times for 119 yards.

The offense figures to have a much easier time putting up points against a struggling USC defense. The Trojans rank 67th in the country, allowing 26.4 ppg. USC’s defense has really been bad of late, giving up 43 points to Arizona State and 41 to Arizona. The Trojans biggest struggle has been slowing down the passing attack of opposing offenses. They are giving up 267.2 yards per game through the air.

Betting Trends:

USC is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.

California is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Be sure to stop back and check out what Steve Janus has to offer in week 7 of college football. Steve is 18-4 over his last 32 NCAAF plays, which has him ranked No. 8 on the college boards in 2011!

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