USC at Oregon Line

Written by Steve Janus

The Oregon Ducks will look to secure the PAc-12 North Division title when they host the USC Trojans this Saturday. The Ducks are coming off a 53-30 statement win over previously undefeated Stanford, moving them into the drivers seat to host the first ever Pac-12 Championship Game. The Trojans continued their impressive play with a 40-17 win at home over Washington to improve to 8-2 on the year. Oregon has won each of the last two meetings against the Trojans by 20+ points, including a 53-32 win at USC last season.

Taking a look at the week 12 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have Oregon favored by 14.5-points over USC with the total set at 67.5-points.

USC:

The Trojans lead the PAC-12 South with a 5-2 conference record, but no matter how they do in their final two games they won’t be playing in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship Game, as they are still serving their postseason ban. Not being able to play past the final regular season game hasn’t seemed to keep this team from playing at a very high level. USC has won five of their last six, with the only loss coming in triple-overtime against Stanford.

Junior quarterback Matt Barkley set the school record with six touchdown passes in the Trojans win over Colorado, but they turned to the ground game to lead them to an easy win over Washington last week. Barkley threw for just 174 yards and a touchdown, while Curtis McNeal and Mark Tyler powered the ground game to a total of 252 yards. McNeal led the way with 148 yards and a touchdown, while Tyler added 50 yards and a score of his own.

The most surprising thing from USC’s blowout win was the fact that star wide out Mark Woods caught just two passes for five yards. Woods has been dealing with a couple of nagging injuries, which could limit his production again this week. Freshman wide out Marqise Lee picked up the slack with nine catches for 74 yards and a touchdown.

The Ducks defense really put together a great defensive effort against the Cardinal last week. They held Stanford’s high-powered rushing attack to just 129 yards on 35 attempts. Look for Barkley and the Trojans to air it out as much as possible against Oregon, as they have to put points on the board to keep this game within striking distance late.

Oregon:

Not only did the Ducks put themselves in control of their own destiny in the PAC-12, their win over Stanford has them right back in the National Title picture if either LSU or Oklahoma State were to lose down the stretch. Oregon’s only loss came against No. 1 LSU in the first game of the season. They have since rolled off 10 straight wins by at least 17-points.

LaMichael James and Darron Thomas led the charge against the Cardinal last week. James rushed for 146 yards and three touchdowns on 20 attempts, while Thomas needed just 11 completions to throw for 155 yards and three scores. Oregon was forced to punt on each of their first two series, but had just one more the entire game. They did turn the ball over twice, but the defense picked them up with five turnovers of their own.

USC has had a very difficult time stopping the Oregon offense the past two seasons. The Ducks put up 47 points and 613 yards of offense in 2009 and 53 points and 599 yards of offense last season. Whether or not the Trojans fair better this time around will come down to their ability to stop the Oregon rushing attack. USC is 8th in the country, allowing just 100.4 rushing yards a game, but gave up 186 in their loss to Stanford.

Betting Trends:

USC is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.

Oregon is 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Steve Janus is the No. 5 college football handicapper in 2011, and is ready to help you turn a profit with his week 12 college football selections.

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