2011 Vanderbilt Football Predictions

Written by Steve Janus

After going to their first bowl game since 1982 in 2008, the Vanderbilt Commodores finished up their second straight season at 2-10. During that two year stretch they are just 1-15 in the SEC. The recent struggles have resulted in yet another change at head coach (3rd in 3 years). The Commodores will now be led by James Franklin, who is a former coordinator at Maryland and Kansas. Franklin will take over a team that has 19 returning starters back from last year. While many teams would be expected to easily make a bowl game with that many starters back, that is simply not the case for Vanderbilt.

To get a better idea of what the Commodores will look like in 2011, here is a look at who they will send to the field on both sides of the ball, plus my prediction on where they will finish the season in the SEC East.

Offense:

The Commodores have not got good play out of their starting quarterbacks of late. Last year Larry Smith started 11 games, but completed just 47% of his passes for 1,262 yards with just six touchdowns to five interceptions. While Smith will be back for his senior season, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Franklin didn’t turn to junior college transfer Jordan Rodgers. Either way Franklin has a great reputation for developing quarterbacks, and we should see some greatly improved numbers from this position in 2011.

Vanderbilt brings back both their leading rushers from last year in juniors Warren Norman (459 yards, 4 touchdowns) and Zac Stacy (331 yards, 3 touchdowns). They also like what they have in sophomore running back Micah Powell, who worked as the No. 1 back in spring with Norman out with an injury. If this unit comes in healthy, they should be much better than they were a year ago.

While Vanderbilt returns all three starting receivers and their starting tight end, just how good this unit is will depend on what they get from the starting quarterback position. Tight end Brandon Barden led the team with just 34 catches for 425 yards and 3 touchdowns. One guy that I think that could really have a big year is sophomore Jordan Matthews, who had four touchdowns on just 15 catches in his freshman season.

Up front the Commodores return their entire starting five on the offensive line. While this unit wasn’t very good last year, they were very inexperienced. Right guard Kyle Fischer is the only senior in the group. The best player on this unit is sophomore left tackle Wesley Johnson, who is already considered one of the top tackles in the SEC after just one season of work.

Defense:

The Commodores have eight starters back from last season on the defensive side of the ball. This unit allowed 31.2 pppg in 2010. While a lot of that had to do with them being on the field for most of the game with the offense doing little to nothing, this unit still lacks the top talent that the other teams have on this side of the ball.

Up front the Commodores return the starting defensive tackle duo of Rob Lohr and T.J. Greenstone. Lohr had a really nice sophomore season with 4 sacks, and will be counted on to continue to improve in his junior season. Sophomore Walker May,who had 1.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss in backup duty as a freshman, will be the new starting defensive end opposite of senior Tim Fugger.

While Vanderbilt returns one of the top linebackers in the conference in senior middle linebacker Chris Marve, they will have to find two new starters on the outside. Juniors Archibald Barnes and Tristan Strong are the frontrunners to take over. The lack of experience outside of Marve is a huge concern heading into the season.

The Commodores will bring back all four starters to a secondary that absolutely got torched in 2010. Vanderbilt gave up 226 yards a game to opposing quarterbacks, and while they will have another year of experience I can’t see this unit all the sudden figuring things out. Senior strong safety Sean Richardson is the best player in this group, but he can’t do it alone.

SEC Prediction: 6th SEC East: I expect the Commodores to be a lot more competitive than they were a year ago, but I don’t think it will result in many more wins. They will have a chance at wins in the SEC at home against Mississippi and Kentucky, and a few more out of conference at home against Connecticut and Elon and on the road against Wake Forest. I think 4-8 is the best Vanderbilt can do.

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