Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
This Saturday the Vanderbilt Commodores will go on the road to take on the Kentucky Wildcats in SEC play. Both teams come in struggling in conference play at 1-5. The Commodores were blown out by Florida last week 55-14 for their fourth consecutive loss, while the Wildcats beat up on Charleston Southern 49-21 in an easy non-conference game. Kentucky has won five of the last six in this series, including a 24-13 win last season. The oddsmakers don’t seem to think it will be all that close this week, as the current odds have the Wildcats favored by 14.5-points over the Commodores at home.
Vanderbilt (2-7, 1-5 SEC): The Commodores are really struggling right now. They have lost their last four games by an average of 33 points per games. Offensively the Commodores have scored just 35 points in the last three games. Vanderbilt ranks 116th in the country averaging just 267 yards of total offense a game, but it has been much worse than that lately. During their current four game losing streak, the Commodores are averaging just 163 yards a game.
With an offense that can’t move the ball, the defense finds itself on the field frequently and that has resulted in a ton of points for the opposing team. Vanderbilt has allowed at last 40 points in four of their last six games. Hard to imagine the Commodores slowing down a Kentucky offense that comes in ranked 22nd in the country averaging just over 34 points a game.
Kentucky (5-5, 1-5 SEC): The Wildcats are much better than their 1-5 SEC record might indicate. Three of their five losses have been by seven points or less, plus this team beat a highly ranked South Carolina team for their only conference win.
The Wildcats offense can beat you on the ground with running back Derrick Locke, who has 574 yards and seven touchdowns on the season, and they can beat you with their passing attack behind quarterback Mike Hartline, who has thrown for 2,674 yards and 21 touchdowns. Hartline has to big playmakers on the outside in Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews. Cobb leads the team with 63 catches for 783 yards, while Matthews has hauled in 46 passes for 715 yards and a team best eight touchdowns.
While the defense hasn’t played terrible, it just seems like they give up a little more than the offense can score, but that shouldn’t be the case this week against a bad Vanderbilt offense.
Looking at the Odds: I think you have to keep betting against the Commodores until they show some life. Kentucky is by far the better team, and the fact that they just have to win by just three scores is worth taking. Even if Vanderbilt breaks 20 points in this game, I still think Kentucky scores at least 40+ points. My final score prediction is Kentucky 47, Vanderbilt 24.
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