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Vanderbilt at Tennessee Odds

In-state rivals collide Saturday when the Vanderbilt Commodores visit the Tennessee Volunteers in SEC East play. There is a lot at stake as the Commodores can become bowl eligible with a win, while the Vols just have to get a victory to stay alive for a postseason berth. Tennessee has won each of the last five meetings in this series, including a 24-10 road win last season as a 7.5-point favorite.

Taking a look at the college football lines for Week 12, I find a spread of Vanderbilt -1.5 over Tennessee and a total set of 44.5 points

Vanderbilt

The Commodores have been shockingly competitive this season. Vanderbilt (5-5, 2-5 SEC) could have won any of their last five games. Instead, they went just 2-3 during this stretch, with three losses to Georgia, Arkansas and Florida all by five points or less. Their wins have come via the blowout over Army (44-21) and then Kentucky (38-8) last week. Now, they must find a way to win on the road for the first time all season. The Commodores are 0-3 away from home, and they will close out the season at Wake Forest next week.

In their 38-8 victory over Kentucky, the Commodores outgained the Wildcats 410-211 behind a complete team effort on both sides of the ball. They limited the Wildcats to 0-for-12 on third-down conversions, while going 10-for-18 on such attempts themselves. Vanderbilt held the ball for nearly 40 minutes and completely controlled the game. Quarterback Jordan Rodgers, brother of Super Bowl MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns against Kentucky. Zac Stacy led the way on the ground with 135 yards and three scores.

Vanderbilt ranks 96th in the land in total offense (334.9 yards/game) and 21st in total defense (327.6 yards/game). This team has been playing up to their potential ever since Rodgers took over at quarterback. The junior is completing 51.6 percent of his passes for 1,166 yards with seven touchdowns and six interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing with 306 yards and four scores. Stacy is having a big year, rushing for 891 yards and nine touchdowns. Jordan Matthews (29 receptions, 569 yards, four TD) and Chris Boyd (20, 320, six TD) are their top two receivers.

Tennessee

The Volunteers are still in search of their first conference win. Tennessee (4-6, 0-6 SEC) may have their best chance to get it Saturday when they welcome the Commodores to Neyland Stadium. The Vols have been ravaged by injuries all season, including those to star quarterback Tyler Bray and star receiver Justin Hunter. While Hunter is out for the season, Bray is expected to return Saturday from a thumb injury that has kept him out since Week 5.

Tennessee is coming off a disheartening 49-7 loss at then-No. 8 Arkansas last weekend. It was their fourth game in five weeks against a ranked opponent, which included losses to then-No. 1 LSU, then-No. 2 Alabama and then-No. 13 South Carolina. The Razorbacks were pretty dominant, outgaining the Vols 499-376 for the game. Freshman quarterback Jordan Worley went 15 of 29 passing for 208 yards with an interception in his third start in place of the injured Bray. Sophomore receiver Da’Rick Rogers added to an already solid season, catching five balls for 105 yards.

The Vols rank just 93rd in the FBS in total offense (342.6 yards/game), including 112th in rushing (91.9 yards/game). However, they are a respectable 42nd in total defense (358.6 yards/game). Bray had been stellar before getting hurt, completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 1,579 yards with 14 touchdowns to two interceptions. His returns will make a huge difference for this offense. Tauren Poole is their leading rusher with 554 yards and four touchdowns, while Rogers is their top pass-catcher with 55 receptions for 886 yards and seven scores.

Betting Trends

The Commodores are 8-2 ATS in all games this season, including 5-0 ATS in their last 5 contests. However, Vanderbilt is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.

The Volunteers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. On the other hand, Tennessee is only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home dog.