Vikings Packers Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The Green Bay Packers are clearly the best team in the NFL this season. They nearly slipped up in their first meeting with Minnesota, beating the Vikings by a narrow margin of 33-27 on the road on October 23rd. Aaron Rodgers threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns to do his part, but the Green Bay defense allowed 435 total yards to the Vikings and had to hang on late for the victory. The Packers will be looking for a much better defensive effort when they host Minnesota on ESPN’s Monday Night Football in Week 10. Green Bay has now won three straight in this series after sweeping the Vikings last season.

Taking a look at the NFL lines for Week 10, I find a spread of Green Bay -13 over Minnesota and a total set of 50.5 points.

Green Bay

The defending Super Bowl champs are certainly happy to be undefeated right now, but this team is far from perfect. Green Bay (8-0, 3-0 home) has had to sweat out a couple of wins in their last two games. They beat the Vikings by six, then following a bye week, they won at San Diego by a final of 45-38. This was a 21-point game midway through the fourth quarter, but Green Bay gave up a pair of quick touchdowns and found themselves in a dog fight.

Fortunately, the defense made a big play when they needed to most. Philip Rivers and the Chargers got the ball one last time with a chance to tie it, but Charlie Peprah picked Rivers for a second time to seal the game late. Both Peprah and Tramon Williams returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns in a span of six plays in the first quarter. While the Green Bay defense did allow 460 total yards to the Chargers, they came up with three interceptions of Rivers which really proved to be the difference. Rodgers had just another day at the office, completing 21 of 26 passes for 247 yards and four touchdowns.

Green Bay ranks 4th in the league in total offense (416.4 yards/game) and 29th in total defense (399.6 yards/game). Rodgers is completing 72.5 percent of his passes for 2,619 yards with a league-high 24 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Greg Jennings had seven receptions for 147 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota last month, and he leads the team with 48 grabs for 723 yards and six scores. Rodgers is has completed 68.9 percent of his throws for 1,602 yards with 14 touchdowns and three picks in his last five meetings with Minnesota.

Minnesota

The Vikings have not had the kind of season they envisioned when they signed Donovan McNabb this offseason. Their passing game was stagnant with McNabb under center, which prompted head coach Leslie Frazier to give rookie quarterback Christian Ponder a shot. Ponder made his first career start in that October 23rd loss to the Packers, and he played fairly well. He threw for 219 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions and made several big throws late to keep the Vikings in the game.

Minnesota (2-6, 1-3 away) is coming off their bye week. They were last in action on October 30th in a 24-21 road win at Carolina. Ponder was even better in second start, going 18 of 28 passing for 236 yards and a touchdown. Adrian Peterson was limited to 83 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Minnesota was able to overcome a poor defensive effort as they gave up 405 total yards to the Panthers. But the stop unit came up with two big turnovers, and they were helped by a missed field goal from Olindo Mare at the end of regulation that would have sent the game into overtime.

The Vikings rank 18th in total offense (332.6 yards/game), including 4th in rushing (150.4 yards/game). Peterson ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing with 795 yards and nine touchdowns. He rushed for 175 and a score in their first meeting with the Packers, and he has averaged 110.3 yards while scoring three touchdowns in his last three visits to Lambeau Field. The Vikings are 20th in the NFL in total defense (368.0 yards/game). They are 30th against the pass (273.6 yards/game), which should mean that Rodgers will be in line for another big day.

Betting Trends

The Vikings are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC North foes, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.

The Packers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games, and 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games overall. However, Green Bay is just 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

The underdog is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, the road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings, and the Vikings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Green Bay.

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